IF NOT THE USA, THEN RUSSIA

Brenda Schaffer is well-acquainted with the Caspian region. She is also well-known here. A former director of the Caspian Studies Project at Harvard University, now a professor at Haifa University and the Azerbaijani Diplomatic Academy (ADA), she has been researching this complicated region for many years. This is why we decided to seek her expert evaluation of the current situation, the geopolitical processes affecting our region and some predictions for the future.

- Mrs Schaffer, the Democrats have replaced the Republicans in the US administration. Can we expect substantial changes in US foreign policy next year? For example, they say that the Obama administration will put an end to military intervention in conflicts around the world, including in Iraq and Afghanistan.

- It seems to me that there are significant differences between the promises made during an election campaign and subsequent actions as president. Although the leader of the Democrats made many promised during his election campaign, let's have a look at his personnel selection policy. Obama retained Robert Gates in the post of defence secretary and appointed Hillary Clinton, who lost the election campaign, as US Secretary of State. This proves that he intends to stick to a median line in his foreign policy. As far as the foreign policy of the country's leadership is concerned, American society is dominated by the opinion and approach that "a child should be given free rein". This does not apply only to Mr Obama. In essence, the American people have stayed aloof from politics and do not give it due attention. Thus political leaders are sometimes distinguished for their more decisive measures. For example, the foreign policy response of the Bush administration in connection with the events in Georgia may be seen as quite positive. People were even perplexed by Bush's position.

- What changes can be expected in Washington's policy on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict? Can we hope that the application of double standards will cease?

- I don't think that the USA is the leading force in the settlement of this conflict. Considering that Russia supports Armenia, it is important what Russia, rather than America, will do to solve the conflict. It seems to me that Russian-American relations are very significant in this issue. It must be noted that relations between Russia and the USA have entered a new phase recently.

- Do you think that Russia is now dominating the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict? It was, after all, Moscow's mediation that helped bring about the signing of a joint document (the Moscow Declaration) between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia - for the first time in 14 years.

- It seems to me that Russia played a certain role in unleashing conflicts in the region. And so Russia will have a significant role in solving them. On this issue, there should be no specific choice between Russia and America. Russia has a huge influence on these countries, because it is of great importance to them. Russia is trying to keep them on a tight rein, using ethnic conflicts for this purpose. Graphic examples of this are the Armenian-Azerbaijani and Georgian-Abkhaz conflicts. In fact, this is a dangerous game for Russia to play, because it contains a great many different peoples itself. There are also problems with the internal political structure of the country.

- In one of your interviews, you said that the OSCE Minsk Group cannot solve this conflict and that its role should be handed over to the UN. Do you still think so, especially if we consider that relations between two of the group's co-chairmen - Russia and the USA - are not very conducive to cooperation?

- If the main centres of power - the most influential countries - have no desire to solve this conflict, then it does not matter who is dealing with it - the OSCE or the UN. However, I think that it was an erroneous step to involve the OSCE in this process in the first place. The OSCE is a very weak organization. It does not have the power to establish a peacekeeping force and has no experience in solving conflicts. In essence, it was quite wrong of the international community to place responsibility for the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict on the OSCE. It is necessary to strive for a comprehensive solution to this issue and for cooperation between the individual countries.

- What influence do you think the consistent strengthening of Azerbaijan's role in ensuring European energy security has on the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict?

- Azerbaijan's transformation into a major exporter supplying gas to Europe is quite a positive factor. The USA is concerned with the issue of energy security on a global scale and is happy that its allies in Europe will be supplied with energy. However, the geopolitical situation in the world has other requirements. Azerbaijan needs stable neighbours. Take Georgia, for example. It is impossible to use some virtual means for the transportation of oil and gas. They can only be delivered by pipelines. This means that Azerbaijan needs neighbours without tense domestic situations.

- Incidentally, about European energy security. How do you see the future of the Nabucco project?

- Unlike other experts in the region, I have a slightly pessimistic view of this issue. How do you think this project can be implemented, especially in the light of the hostilities in Georgia? I don't believe that Kazakhstan and Iran will favour this transit route.

- In conclusion, how can you, a specialist who has studied this region for a long time, explain the fact that the legal status of the Caspian Sea has still not been determined?

- The issue of the status of the Caspian should be solved on the basis of international law. However, while resolving legal issues, states often forget this factor and politicize the problems. I think that the issue can be resolved if a political decision is made on the status of the Caspian. However, I do not believe that this will happen in the future. On the issue of delimitation, Russia and Kazakhstan, unlike Iran, have the political will to solve the problem. Countries have agencies, the police for example, to settle internal legal issues. However, it is quite difficult to solve such issues in international law.