THE REGION OF 2008

The year 2008 will stick in our mind with numerous sensational events both on the global and regional scale. Even a brief look at our magazine can show that this year was full of political conflicts, wars, crises and natural and manmade disasters. In any case, if we believe superstitions, this was expected because 2008 was a leap year. Thus, pessimistic predictions proved right, while optimistic predictions proved wrong. 2008 was a year of the Rat, and according to astrologists, land was supposed to feed people quite well. But everything was quite the opposite as the world experienced a serious economic crisis. Nor will we be able to stop the crisis in the Year of the Ox, if it is still continuing, and it is not known when it will end. For the time being, let us summarize the results of the Year of the Rat for the region.

Azerbaijan

In 2008, Azerbaijan continued its progressive economic development which was accompanied by the strengthening of its leading positions in the region and even in the world. From this point of view, 2008 became a year of the international recognition of Azerbaijan's leading role. For example, in the World Bank's "Doing Business - 2009" report Azerbaijan improved its ranking by 64 points and became number one among reformist countries. At the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, Azerbaijan was recognized as the leader of the CIS in the development of information and communications technologies. The country also retained its leadership in the pace of GDP growth.

From an economic point of view, 2008 went down in history also with the beginning of the construction of the Turkish sector of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad which connects Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. In this way, despite all the difficulties and obstacles, another major regional project initiated by Azerbaijan entered its final stage of implementation.

Naturally, not every country of the region liked such a development of events. Specifically, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars project was another blow to Armenia and considerably damaged the positions of exhausted Armenia which has isolated itself from the outer world because of its territorial claims to its neighbours. Azerbaijan's status as a strong regional player and a number of other circumstances forced Yerevan to soften its rhetoric in the negotiations on the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. As for the non-economic component of the strengthening of Azerbaijan's position at the Karabakh front, we cannot but mention the contribution of Azerbaijani diplomacy here. "On 14 March, an unusual event happened in the history of Azerbaijani foreign policy. The UN General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in the occupied territories with 39 votes for, seven against and 100 abstentions. Our country was in fact the first country in the CIS which managed to pass its resolution in the UN General Assembly without the support of great powers on such an important issue," political expert Fuad Axundov wrote in our magazine (2008, No 7 [51]). Thus, the UN again clearly recognized Nagornyy Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan and the need to liberate this territory from occupation. However, the cochairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group demonstrated "constructive" ambiguity during the UN vote, though they tried to excuse themselves later, saying that they were trying to maintain their neutrality. This way or another, the fact remains a fact. The UN General Assembly adopted another resolution on the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, and this is one of the most significant events of the year. An even more significant event occurred later - on 2 November 2008. The presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia adopted a joint declaration in Moscow. This was the first document on Nagornyy Karabakh signed by the presidents of the conflicting sides in 14 years. In the declaration the parties confirmed the need for "a political solution" with international guarantees. It is also important that the text of the declaration contains a clear, simple and understandable thesis: it is necessary to solve the conflict first and then talk about economic cooperation. This strengthened Azerbaijan's positions in the negotiating process even more, which can be rightly regarded as an achievement of the country's leadership.

During the presidential elections of 15 October 2008, the Azerbaijani people voted again for the political and economic policy of the incumbent leadership. The country's incumbent president, Ilham Aliyev, was supported by 88.7 per cent of voters. What is more, as we reported earlier, if in 2003 people voted for Ilham Aliyev with hopes for further wellbeing, in 2008 people confidently voted for a guaranteed future, peace, stability and reforms.

Armenia

In 2008, presidential elections were held in Armenia as well. As was expected, Robert Kocharyan who seized power on the wave of the Armenian-Azerbaijani war handed it over to a representative of the Karabakh clan, Serzh Sagsyan, on 19 February. The anti-democratic handover of power was confirmed by both local and international observers. But the most terrible thing happened later. Literally the next day after the elections, large rallies began in Yerevan in support of the main opposition candidate and the country's first president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan. The opposition was joined by two deputy defence ministers and a number of high-ranking officials. From 21 February, the rallies became open-ended and round-the-clock. On seeing that the situation is getting out of hand, the ruling regime brought heavy military hardware into the streets of Yerevan on 1 March. As a result of the brutal suppression of the people's resistance, 10 people were killed in Yerevan, while dozens were wounded. The incumbent president, Kocharyan, declared a state of emergency until 20 March. Rallies, marches and strikes were banned, and the media were told to base their political reports only on the official version, while the activities of parties and NGOs were restricted. On the night of 2-3 March, opposition newspapers and websites were closed. Sixty-seven people who were arrested for political reasons during those events are still held in Armenian prisons. According to a Region+ forecast, what happened in Armenia was expected.

Sargsyan who has experience in exterminating civilians on the territory of Azerbaijan used his experience against his own people. The Armenian authorities did everything possible to retain power and hand it over "within their clan". This issue will be examined at the winter session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in 2009. The discussions are expected to be quite heated, and Armenia may lose its right to vote in this organization. Meanwhile, the subject of Armenia became topical also in the context of regional integration. This time it manifested itself during Turkey's attempts to implement its initiative on stability in the Caucasus.

"Friendly" Turkey

The initiative to create the Caucasus Pact of Stability and Cooperation (CPSC) was put forward by Turkey after the five-day war between Georgia and Russia, but we will come onto that later. Without putting the idea into cold storage, Ankara immediately began talks with Moscow, Tbilisi, Baku and even Yerevan with which Turkey has no diplomatic relations. A really historic event happened on 6 September 2008. For the first time in the history of Armenia, Turkish President Abdullah Gul visited this country, having accepted Serzh Sargsyan's invitation to watch a football match between the two countries' national teams in Yerevan. Even a man in the street realizes that football was just an excuse. Ankara has started a policy of rapprochement with Armenia, trying to strengthen its positions in the region and show the EU and the USA that it is ready for dialogue with Yerevan. At the same time, it was impossible to ignore the opinion of friendly Azerbaijan whose territory Armenia has occupied. For this reason, Gul arrived in Baku four days after his trip to Yerevan. It is difficult to sit in judgment on the results of this short visit as Gul himself said that the purpose "was to calm down Azerbaijan and ease tensions in Azerbaijani society".

It is only clear that the Turkish president failed to "calm down" Azerbaijani society. In Turkey, there are very few supporters of unilateral good will gestures with regard to Armenia which has no intention of giving up its allegations about the fictitious Armenian genocide and its territorial claims to Azerbaijan and Turkey. In any case, Turkey's initiative to create the Pact of Stability in the Caucasus will remain topical in 2009 as well, though prospects to unite Baku and Yerevan, and Moscow and Tbilisi within this project look quite vague.

Moscow and Tbilisi

In early 2008, on 5 January, extraordinary presidential elections were held in Georgia, and as was expected, Mikheil Saakashvili gained a victory in the elections. He was forced to appeal to voters by an acute political crisis that broke out in the country at the end of 2007. As is known, opposition forces initiated mass protests which were brutally subdued by the police and resulted in a state of emergency and in the suspension of the Imedi and Kavkasia TV channels. The actions of the Saakashvili government caused sharp criticism even from the USA and the European Union. Whatever it is, the elections did take place and the domestic political situation in Georgia started acquiring clear outlines unlike the foreign political situation. The conflicts in the separatist regions of Georgia - Abkhazia and South Ossetia - did not help normalize relations between Tbilisi and Moscow. The situation was exacerbated even more by the recognition of Kosovo's independence by some European countries and the USA on 17 February. Immediately after that, Moscow, which opposed the independence of this Serbian region, issued a warning about a possible response to the West - recognition of the independence of Georgia's breakaway regions. But Russia was in no hurry, especially as presidential elections were just around the corner in the country.

The presidential elections in Russia were held on 2 March. As was expected, the winner was the first deputy prime minister, Dmitriy Medvedev, a candidate supported by the previous president, Vladimir Putin. At the same time, reaction to the results of the elections, which were quite expected, was ambiguous. The Russian press is still actively discussing who is the new head of state - Medvedev or Putin again? But this is a different subject of discussion. The only undisputable thing is that both the domestic and foreign policy of Moscow did not undergo any changes after the elections. What's more, one of the directions of this policy - Georgia - reached its culmination. Ahead of the opening of the Beijing Olympics, Russia and Georgia began hostilities in South Ossetia on the night of 7-8 August, putting the region on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe. Later these hostilities were called "a five-day war". The whole world intervened, and after strenuous efforts, the sides signed a plan to cease fire and solve the situation in the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict zone with the mediation of French President Nicolas Sarkozy who holds the presidency of the EU. But it was already clear that Russia has decided to legitimize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. At a meeting with the leaders of the South Ossetian and Abkhaz separatists in Moscow Eduard Kokoyty and Sergey Bagapsh, Dmitriy Medvedev clearly said that he will support "any decision supported by the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia". Soon after that, the parliaments of the self-styled republics appealed to Russia for recognition of their independence, and Moscow immediately responded to their appeal. Naturally, the West was irritated by this step as much as Moscow was irritated by the recognition of Kosovo. Unlike Kosovo, the list of countries which recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia turned out to be quite short.

Whatever it is, the fact remains a fact. The five-day war between Georgia and Russia in 2008 expedited the process of political polarization and aggravated conflict situations in the world. And our region was one of the main epicentres where the interests of great powers clashed.