MESSAGE FROM A LIBERAL, GREAT POWER NATIONALIST

Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev's message to the Russian Federation Federal Assembly stands alongside the US elections as one of the most important events of recent days. It was as significant an indication of the rapidly changing situation in the world as the trans-Atlantic superpower's election of a black leader, harshly critical of his predecessor's domestic and foreign policy. 

In the name of a "strong state"

The message is awash with signs of Dmitriy Medvedev's reformist aspirations. Russia's Gazeta newspaper writes, "If politicians who changed our country, such as Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin, were reformers by force, i.e. they actually followed events, then Dmitriy Medvedev can become a professional reformer."

Medvedev's proposal to increase constitutionally the presidential and State Duma terms, up to six and five years respectively, could be seen as the first attempt to change the Russian  Federation Constitution since it was adopted by referendum in December 1993. This step is definitely aimed at strengthening state power in Russia, but political circles in Moscow itself are asking who Medvedev is preparing the six-year presidency for, himself or Vladimir Putin, who retains his leading role on the Russian political stage. 

Besides, the general content of the domestic political transformations proposed by Medvedev apply not only to strengthening the power mechanism, but to the liberalization of Russian society. True, it has to be said that this is liberalism with a clear Russian character, closely interwoven with the ideology of a supremely powerful state which is becoming more of an issue in the Russian Federation. Medvedev gives assurances that "sharp fluctuations in the political and economic environment, turbulence in the world economy and even heightened military political tension will not cause the dismantling of the democratic institutions" of Russia or "the transfer into state ownership of industry and finance". He calls for an end to the situation in which the state apparatus "is the biggest employer, the busiest publisher, the best producer, its own court, its own party and in the final analysis its own people", as "such a system is completely ineffective and creates just one thing - corruption" and is "enemy No 1" of "a free, democratic and just society".

But the key moment in the speech of liberal leader Medvedev was his assertion that "a powerful state and all-powerful bureaucracy are not one and the same", as "the former is needed by civil society as a tool of development and a support of order" while the latter "is fatally dangerous for it". In other words, the Russian leader is making clear that liberal values are not a reason for disowning a "powerful state". This is a sign not only for bureaucracy but also for oligarchic capital that there will never be a return to the era of market chaos, "the feverish 90s". It is the state that intends to play the role of guarantor and partner "of a flourishing community of free people, founded on just laws", which is what the master of the Kremlin wants to see in Russia.

Against a unipolar world order

In his message Dmitriy Medvedev proposed reforms not only to his own country but to the whole world. His speech basically summed up Russia's position, which Vladimir Putin set out when he was still president and Dmitriy Medvedev did again on the eve of and after the August events in Georgia. According to the logic of the worsening stand-off in the world, the Russian approach to global problems is founded on not accepting America as a unipolar state. Washington was criticized by Medvedev for the "tragedy of Tskhinvali" too, which was "a consequence of the American administration's arrogant policy that cannot bear criticism and prefers unilateral decisions" and for major errors in the financial and economic sphere, connected with "inflating the money balloon to stimulate their own growth", the United States "not only did not bother to coordinate its decisions with other players in the global markets, but ignored a basic sense of proportion", "as a result of which they damaged themselves and others". 

Medvedev made his strongest remarks in the part of his message covering the steps that Russia intends to take against the USA's policy of "building a global anti-missile system", "surrounding Russia with military bases" and the "unfettered expansion of NATO". This refers in particular to stopping the plan to stand down from combat readiness and later disband the rocket division based in Kozelsk, the deployment of the Iskander missile complex in Kaliningrad Region and the radio-electronic neutralization of the USA's new anti-missile installations in Europe.

Russia has been talking about these kinds of measures for a long time now. Russia's top brass have often warned that if parts of the American anti-missile system are based in Poland and the Czech Republic, these countries will become "priority targets" for a Russian Federation counter-strike. Moreover, as recently as the summer, the leadership of the Russian strategic troops were talking about the Kremlin's intention to keep the 28th division, based in Kozelsk, whose missile complexes are used under the Russian-American treaty on reducing offensive potential. They were talking not only about retaining the division and all 46 of its missile complexes, but of deploying new weapons in the formation's infrastructure - the so-called supersonic cruise missiles. Missiles of this kind have a far shorter flying time and the proposed American sites in eastern Europe could be hit 60 per cent more rapidly. As for the Iskander rockets in Kaliningrad, these operational-tactical complexes, equipped with cruise missiles with nuclear warheads, are still not combat-ready for one simple reason - the missile itself is still being finished off. It is too early to talk about the radio-electronic forces, which Russia is threatening to use to jam the anti-missile systems in the Czech Republic and Poland, as being completely finalized and operational. Despite this, there can be no doubt of Moscow's seriousness in opposing the USA's anti-missile forces which could soon appear close to the Russian Federation's borders.

Hence NATO's "serious concern" at the Russian president's statement. North Atlantic alliance spokesman Robert Pszczel said that Moscow basing Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad Region would put at risk important arms control treaties and could worsen relations between Russia and NATO. The US State Department also expressed its "disappointment": its spokesman Sean McCormack again tried to give assurances that "the missile defence sites in the Czech Republic and Poland are not aimed at Russia", but "designed to protect against rogue states, for example Iran, who are working on long-range missile technology". However, these arguments still cut no ice with Russia which has been complaining that they are unconvincing ever since Washington's intentions to base anti-missile systems in eastern Europe first emerged.

Meanwhile, it is understandable that the anti-missile measures announced by Dmitriy Medvedev are more a political, than military threat. The West realizes this too. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk thinks that the remarks by the Russian president on neutralizing elements of the USA's anti-missile system in Europe should be seen as the "latest declaration of a political, not military nature". True, the Polish prime minister recognized that Russia's military potential is great and expressed concern at the prospects of "the situation taking a turn for the worse". 

However, what's most important in this situation is that the USA and Russia - two major nuclear powers - realize the inadmissibility of a military confrontation with one another; therefore, actions of a military and defence character that they propose or implement are just a tool to reinforce their geopolitical influence in various parts of the planet. Such a struggle, for all its excess of "sharp corners", has signs of restraint that show the unwillingness of the Kremlin and the White House to bring things to a point that allows no return to strategic cooperation, in which both powers have an interest, especially to issues of nuclear non-proliferation, ensuring global security and combating international terrorism. 

It is significant that Dmitriy Medvedev concluded his attacks on the USA with the words that Russia "does not have problems with the American people" and expressed hope for cooperation with the new United States administration in forming a new, global security architecture, reforming the UN and developing an international arms control regime. The Russian president confirmed his initiative on drawing up a treaty on European security, which would set out a single approach to resolving conflicts on the part of the USA, Russia and Europe. "It is universally recognized norms and principles of international law that must set the rules of the game in world affairs," he said. 

In the sphere of vital interests

Dmitriy Medvedev's assertions that, "out of respect for the existing formats", Russia will help settlements in Pridnestrovye and Nagornyy Karabakh, "cooperate with all interested sides" and "reach mutually acceptable agreement" are remarkable in this regard. The very mention in the president's message of conflicts existing within the CIS indicates that Moscow intends to use its geopolitical potential, which increased significantly after the five-day war with Georgia, to reinforce its positions in the post-Soviet area. In particular, assistance to the negotiating processes in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict zone and in Moldova could - after the August events in Georgia - provide very timely help to Russia in positioning itself as a polar force, able to solve the most complex interstate problems in the traditional area of its vital interests.

Another nuance is worth highlighting: Medvedev's speech, which calls on the world to put an end to America's unipolar supremacy, in order to make it more convincing notes the objective interest of many countries in the presence of several power centres of global politics. "The world cannot be ruled from one capital," Medvedev said. "Whoever refuses to recognize this will only create new problems for themselves and others. And the transition of the majority of countries to a really pragmatic, multi-vector policy is evidence of the actual strengthening of international institutions." Such statements could latently anticipate new initiatives by the Russian leadership on specific possibilities for integration in the CIS area. This is evidently what is demanded by the bid for great power status and the role of one of the world's political centres, clearly expressed in Dmitriy Medvedev's first message to the Federal Assembly as president of the Russian Federation.