REAL- POLITIK

The elections for the 44th US presidency, as always, leave no one indifferent. And there are reasons for this.

First, the USA, whatever they say or predict, still is, and will remain, the most powerful and influential state in the near future, setting the pace in world politics. Everyone understands that whoever holds the reins of power in the States for the next four years will influence both the international climate as a whole, and bilateral relations between Washington and its partners.

Second, any presidential election in the USA (this one is no exception) often more closely resembles a TV show than the lengthy and laborious process of electing a head of state. Now that all those who follow the development of events have the Internet at their disposal, everything appears much more entertaining, let alone the picture of a young and naked Sarah Palin, the vice-presidential candidate of the Republican Party, posted on the worldwide web.

Third, this election year will stay in our minds for two distinguishing features: the Democratic candidate Barack Obama could become the first black US president, while the Republican candidate Senator John McCain could be the oldest US president.

And finally, fourth, the election campaign was affected by the unplanned world financial crisis in the very home straight, diverting the attention of rank-and-file Americans from other issues such as the war in Iraq. The winner of the elections will inherit all the "beauties" accompanying the fall in economic indicators.

While the 47-year-old Barack Obama positions himself as a liberal and a supporter of reform, calling for the revival of the "American dream", the 72-year-old Vietnam war veteran, John McCain, puts more "emphasis" on patriotism, as well as on his service and experience. This means that, apart from everything else, he can oppose the policy of his own party, which has seen its reputation significantly tarnished during George Bush's presidency. Meanwhile, the influential American newspaper The New York Times, which supports Obama, writes that his programme for the economy and national security is more effective than that of McCain. The newspaper also considers Obama's plans in the sphere of international relations to be the more substantial. As for McCain, it is believed that "his policy and views are stuck in the past" and are "crowned" by the figure of Sarah Palin who is clearly not fit for the post of vice-president.

Although, according to opinion polls, McCain has managed to close up on Obama by several points, the black senator remains at the peak of his popularity, and not just with Americans. Ever-active journalists and sociologists have carried out research, showing that if the US president was elected by the whole world, the black senator would definitely win. Azerbaijan is no exception here.

Incidentally, it must be remembered that Obama and the Republican senator from Indiana, Richard Lugar, visited Azerbaijan (as well as Russia and Ukraine) in 2005. Although the trip was dedicated to cooperation on the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, it also allowed the American politicians to take a closer look at the problems of the South Caucasus.

Despite this, Obama later accused Azerbaijan and Turkey of blockading Armenia and expressed his readiness to maintain the level of humanitarian aid to Yerevan, saying that it is necessary to promote a solution to the Karabakh conflict based on the "principle of self-determination". The speaker of the Armenian National Assembly of America (ANCA), Elizabeth Chouldjian, described Obama's position as "the firmest position of the last 10 years".

The vice-presidential candidate and Democratic senator from Delaware, Joe Biden, is known for a stronger pro-Armenian position. He is known as a person who "promoted American-Armenian cooperation". The Armenian Assembly of America (AAA) says in its report that "while chairman of the Senate commission on legal affairs in 1989, Biden proposed Senate Resolution 212 which confirmed the so-called 'Armenian genocide'." In 1992, Senator Biden voted for Section 907 to the Freedom Support Act proposed by the Democratic senator from Michigan, John Kerry. Section 907 specifies conditions for US government aid to CIS countries, and one of its conditions is that the US government should not provide Azerbaijan with any financial aid, except for humanitarian aid, until Baku lifts the blockade of Armenia. In exchange for their consent to a suspension of Section 907, the Armenian lobbyists suggested the inclusion in the US budget of an article on direct financial aid to Nagornyy Karabakh, as well as the maintenance of parity in US military aid to Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, John McCain, who also visited Azerbaijan, is the initiator of a more friendly resolution on Baku, which supported the strengthening of its security and further democratization in Azerbaijan. McCain spoke out in favour of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, a country he regards as an important Washington ally in the region.

Also of special interest to Azerbaijan is the attitude of the US presidential candidates to the so-called "Armenian genocide" which Yerevan blames on Turkey - a friend and important strategic ally of Baku.

For example, Armenia is very unhappy with John McCain and the Republican administration of George Bush. The outgoing president Bush was reminded that in his election campaign he promised to recognize the notorious "genocide", but "did not keep his word" after receiving the votes of American Armenians. Last year Bush insisted that it is unacceptable to fall out with Turkey and forced the Senate to reject Resolution 106 on the recognition of the "Armenian genocide". It must be remembered that the document was submitted to the House of Representatives for consideration on 30 January 2007 by Republicans Adam Schiff and George Radanovich and the co-chairs of the committee on Armenian affairs, Frank Pallone and Joe Knollenberg. McCain is expected to be similarly tough on this issue.

On 18 October, ANCA issued quite a harsh statement, saying that "officials are behaving like employees of the Azerbaijani embassy". "In the weeks following the visit to Baku by US Vice-President Dick Cheney, the US administration stopped mentioning the right of self-determination and has ignored this democratic principle in its statements," the Armenian committee said in its statement.

Against this background, an article "McCain's Armenia Problem", published in The Atlantic Monthly on 17 October 2008, says that "McCain's own stance against genocide recognition and his relative indifference towards bilateral relations with Armenia have been a matter of record since well before George W. Bush emerged on the national stage." This is quite shocking for Armenians.

"Barack Obama, conversely, seemed committed to the affirmation of the events of 1915 as genocide long before he decided on a presidential run," it said. As a sign of gratitude, an organization called "Armenians for Obama" was set up in California. In any case.  It must be remembered that Ankara has repeatedly said that bilateral American-Turkish relations may deteriorate in this event. Meanwhile, Turkey is a Muslim country and a member of NATO, whose territory is a special transit point for US cargo bound for Iraq and Afghanistan (70 per cent of air cargo goes to Iraq).

Facts are quite an obstinate thing. But this is their power. Just like Turkey, Azerbaijan is of greater interest to the USA than Armenia. Real conditions dictate their own rules totally in line with the saying that in politics there are no friends, only national interests.

"As the United States struggles for ways to counter Russia's invasion of Azerbaijan's neighbour Georgia, Washington should consider elevating the US relationship with Azerbaijan into a broader partnership. Within this increasingly important geostrategic region, Azerbaijan is by far the most stable nation and it has acted with utmost responsibility towards its neighbours, despite legitimate historic grievances… When John McCain or Barack Obama becomes America's 44th president, entering into a 'strategic grand bargain' with the small but strategic country of Azerbaijan in the oil-rich Caspian Sea region should be a top foreign-policy priority. Specifically, the next president should make the resolution of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict a priority of American diplomacy. The United States should use its good will to bring Armenia to the negotiating table for a final settlement of this conflict - resumption of which can negatively affect the flow of oil to the United States from the Caspian Sea region. While it is important for Washington to support Georgia, long-term US interests call for entering into strategic alliances with stable countries and responsible leaders. Azerbaijan is one such country," The Washington Times believes.

As it were, no comment. Azerbaijan will undoubtedly be able to establish mutually beneficial relations with both John McCain and Barack Obama administrations.