LOGICAL RESULT

Even before the presidential election in Azerbaijan, opinion polls were unequivocal about voters' preferences: the overwhelming majority of the electorate was going to vote for Ilham Aliyev. Which is quite logical - summoning a whole host of reasons and arguments, one may conclude that people's idea of well-being and development is associated with the name of this man. This is not only because Heydar Aliyev laid the groundwork for the future leadership of the republic and left a legacy of political culture, good neighbourliness and partnership with world superpowers. At the same time, thanks to a well-devised oil strategy, political stability and the balanced foreign political activity of the national leader, Azerbaijan has begun to flex its economic muscle, so to speak. At the dawn of the new century the prestigious Fitch Ibca rating agency awarded our country a credit rating of ВВ+ with prospects for further growth and, in subsequent years, this rating increased consistently. This is unprecedented for a country in a state of war. Azerbaijan's accession to the Council of Europe in January 2000 represented a first step in the transition of the state structure to European principles. This laid additional responsibility on the shoulders of the country's leadership and brought forth new priorities.

After becoming President in 2003, Ilham Aliyev chose one of them - the stage-by-stage modernization of all spheres of life with a view to regional leadership. Leadership was not an end in itself. It was intended to strengthen regional security, facilitate the stable and favourable development of the countries and peoples of the Southern Caucasus and to solve pressing issues on the European agenda, particularly those relating to energy security. He thus proved that Heydar Aliyev's political heritage is in safe hands. As the son of the begetter of a new and independent Azerbaijan, he quickly succeeded in establishing himself as a reformist leader.

Since 2003, the life of Azerbaijani citizens has undergone a clear, qualitative change. The country is part of global technological networks, people's well-being is improving and modern cities are emerging in the countryside. See for yourself: we are now aiming to develop our space industry as two telecommunication satellites are to be launched in 2010. In other words, Azerbaijan's appearance in the international space market is not too far away. Another important change for the better is that the 2008 World Economic Forum in Davos recognized Azerbaijan as the leading CIS country in the development of communication and information technology.

As far as living standards are concerned, figures speak volumes. Five years ago, during the presidential campaign, Ilham Aliyev stated confidently that 600,000 new jobs would be created. For the first two years after his election as President, the opposition tried to cast doubt on the validity of his statement. However, from 2004 the implementation of infrastructural projects began. A boom in the construction sector prepared the way for a rise in the rate of employment. As a result of the development of the non-oil sector and increases in investment, the objective has been met - more than 700,000 new jobs have been created, of which 505,000 are permanent! Azerbaijan is experiencing a new and a rather unexpected phenomenon - the outflow of its workforce has been superseded by an influx of labour migrants from Asian countries, attesting to the attractiveness of the Azerbaijani market. The State Migration Service has been set up to regulate this process. As for those who, earlier, had left for Russia to make money, they are increasingly investing in projects in Azerbaijan, which should also be recognised as an indicator of their confidence in the high potential of the national economy.

The development of private business also means the creation of new jobs. For this, the state is stimulating business activity. Low-interest credit is available to businessmen; a "one-stop" system has been established to simplify the establishment of businesses. The World Bank's Doing Business 2009 Report said Azerbaijan had improved its rating by 64 points to become a leader among reforming countries! This is the assessment international experts are giving to the efforts of the Azerbaijani government to develop entrepreneurship.

In conditions of a global financial crisis many major investment projects are being reversed, while Azerbaijan is moving forward. In fact, the leaders of major national companies are seeing this as an opportunity to enter other markets. Today, when major financial projects are being reined back in many countries, Azerbaijan is expanding its role in Black Sea trade and development banks. Our country's share has risen from 2 to 5 per cent, which is much higher than that of either Georgia or Armenia.

Ilham Aliyev's achievements over the five years of his presidency are not only measured in impressive statistics, the number of state programmes adopted, infrastructure projects implemented or the level of foreign political authority. All this has shaped the moral and ideological foundation of the Azerbaijani people, with a qualitatively new position for itself among world nations. It was Ilham Aliyev who helped his countrymen, and the country as a whole, to rid itself of the "elder brother" syndrome. And this sense of national independence, genuine sovereignty and self-sufficiency is perhaps even more important than any material benefit. Having become a regional leader, we no longer look up to the world powers, because the leaders of strong European nations have already recognized Azerbaijan as their partner in the implementation of a strategy for energy security.

Our country is now capable of displaying a consistent and principled stance in the settlement of strategic issues. The latest developments in Georgia have demonstrated the effectiveness of Ilham Aliyev's foreign policy. While Armenia is Russia's outpost and Georgia makes no secret of its allegiance to the West, our President courageously informs the world community that sovereign Azerbaijan has opted for independent development in accordance with national interests, principles of good neighbourliness, regional and world security. He has the arguments, power and constancy to protect and promote our interests. For these reasons, world politicians accept the foreign political conception of the leader of Azerbaijan. The recent developments in the region have justified the foreign policy of establishing friendly relations with neighbours and integrating into the Euro-Atlantic area. Unlike Georgia, which recently drew fire from a major neighbouring superpower, thus endangering major regional projects, Azerbaijan carefully marshals its ideas in the geopolitical arena, giving preference to balance and neutrality. For example, having openly expressed their recognition of Georgia's territorial integrity, the Azerbaijani authorities diplomatically stopped short of accusing Russia.

The policy for the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict is well received by the international community. In fact, Azerbaijan, having flexed its economic muscle, is beginning to perplex an already precarious Armenia. Our country's military potential has also increased considerably over these years. The priority task of bringing Azerbaijan's military budget to the level of Armenia's total budget has been achieved.

This is why Armenia, having won a "prestigious" award as "Russia's outpost", is now trying to establish relations with a NATO member - Turkey. This is nonsense! Moreover, Armenia is also sending veiled messages to Azerbaijan, offering to begin economic cooperation. Azerbaijan, in its turn, has long made its position on the conflict clear. It is based on the principles of international law - the conflict may be resolved on the basis of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and the provision of autonomy to the population of Nagornyy Karabakh.

For all his five years in office, Ilham Aliyev has worked to improve the socio-economic indices. In the meantime, the incompetent minions of the People's Front have been helplessly spiteful, attempting to attract attention by hysterical hue and cry. They spent the last five years involved in gossip, strife and party bickering, thus showing that they are no opposition but a Fronde - an unprincipled and flippant group of protesters serving various interests. After the chaos, destruction and threat of civil war which our country faced under the People's Front, the remains of these political parties have failed to emerge as a constructive opposition with conceptual suggestions and businesslike criticism. Their accusations were unfounded because they had nothing with which to substantiate their arguments. It is at least something that, in the run-up to the election, certain parties had the courage to acknowledge that there was no alternative to Ilham Aliyev. An example of this was a public statement by the opposition Open Society Party, which recognized the national and foreign political successes of the incumbent President.

Thanks to the balanced foreign political policy, trans-national economic projects are being undertaken with success. Azerbaijan is duly represented in the most influential international organizations. The current task of foreign economic policy is the promotion of our national economy in world markets. An extensive export infrastructure has been created by four export routes - the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Baku-Supsa, Baku-Novorossiysk oil pipelines and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, which is evidence of the diverse export potential of the country. Natural gas from Shah Deniz is to be transported to Central Europe via the Nabucco gas pipeline.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway line will enhance Azerbaijan's capabilities as a regional transit centre. This railway will link China to London. Further, a North-South railway line will be built through our country. It is to run from Northern Europe via Russia to Iran and on to India.

Ilham Aliyev's economic policy is encouraging the activity of the private sector, manufacturing and non-oil industries. The non-oil sector's share of GDP has risen from 11 to 18.7 per cent. The foundations have already been laid for the development of tourism. An appropriate state programme has been adopted and a network of tourist facilities is unfolding throughout the republic. This sector is expected to generate a profit of $1 billion as early as next year.

The combination of state regulation of the economy with market mechanisms promotes the maximum socio-economic effect. Let us try to provide a comprehensive commentary on the economic indicators over this period.

In terms of the rate of economic development, Azerbaijan has become a world leader, and it is first in the CIS by volume of investment per capita. The volume of GDP has increased 2.7 times, the annual GDP growth rate was 25-27 per cent; reaching 35 per cent in 2006.

In the first nine months of this year, per capita income in the republic rose by 38.2 per cent to AZN 1,079, or $1,252.5, compared with the same period last year. 

There has also been a considerable increase in the state budget, almost 10-fold over five years. In 2009, the budget is forecast to be $15 billion.

The Azerbaijan manat is strengthening by 5 per cent every year. The banking system is developing rapidly; bank turnover has increased by 32 per cent this year.

The Azerbaijani government's regional policy is based on the national development strategy for the 21st century and aims to even out levels of development, to eliminate the most acute social and economic disparities between different districts of the country. The State Programme for the Socio-economic Development of the Regions (2004-2008) has been implemented successfully. Energy problems in the countryside are no longer as pressing as they were. Module-type power stations have been commissioned in the districts of Baku, Nakhchivan, Astara, Shaki and Khachmaz. Distribution networks have been reconstructed. Gas and water pipelines have been laid in many districts. The outflow of the population from the regions to the capital has halted and conditions have been created for the development of the business sector. The new programme for the development of the country's regions, covering 2009-2013, intends to resolve the problems of every village.

To ensure food security, farmers have been given tax benefits. They receive fuel and fertilizer on advantageous terms, as well as subsidies to the amount of AZN 40 per hectare of wheat planted. The network of leasing services is also burgeoning. The state food safety programme for 2008-2015 outlines new prospects for agricultural development in the country.

As a man of high leadership calibre and outlook, the President has also tackled the transport problem as a reformer. He is well aware that bad roads are an obstacle to economic growth, especially in the regions. As part of the state programme for the development of the transport system, a total of 3,652 kilometres of roads have been built, reconstructed or renovated in three years. A total of 25 new bridges have been commissioned. Highways are being built to international quality standards from Baku to the borders with Georgia, Russia and Iran.

Over the last five years, oil has multiplied the country's gold and currency reserves by more than 10 times to $15 billion. According to the assessments of international institutions, in 2020 Azerbaijan's cumulative revenues from the oil and gas sector will reach $200 billion. This, however, is also not an end in itself. The President has repeatedly stated that the priority is to convert "black gold" into the golden human resources of the republic.

This head of state's intention is being steadily fulfilled. Over five years, per capita monetary incomes have risen almost fourfold. The minimum wage has increased more than eight times. Thanks to oil revenues, the base pension and scholarships have increased considerably. The average monthly wage has risen 3.3 times to AZN 254. The level of poverty has dropped from 49 to 16 per cent. In total, 100,000 families are receiving targeted social assistance. A new state poverty reduction programme has been adopted for 2008-2015.

The priority of the state's social policy is a gradual increase in social benefits. A number of social programmes have been implemented, houses are being built for the families of those who fell victim or were handicapped in the Karabakh war. Another of Ilham Aliyev's pre-election pledges has been fulfilled - all refugee tent-camps have been removed and the refugees have been housed in normal living conditions.

State programmes for the construction and renovation of schools, the computerization of educational institutions and development of the creative potential of gifted children have been implemented effectively. A total of 1,400 new and 300 renovated schools are an impressive indicator of development in the education system. To crown it all, whereas in 2003 there was only one computer per 1,000 schoolchildren, the figure has now risen to 29.

Medical centres and a modern pharmaceutical industry have been created, while state medical institutions have reverted to the provision of free medical services. Well-equipped diagnostic centres have been built in the districts and about 30 centres of reproductive health and family planning have been established.

The personnel potential of our young state is also strengthening. The state's personnel policy aims to form, develop and ensure the rational use of the country's labour resources and the regulation of personnel processes. In spring 2007, the state programme for the education of young Azerbaijanis abroad from 2007-2015, was adopted. Under the programme, the state will send about 5,000 students to study abroad.

The Olympic movement is also gaining ground. The seven medals won by Azerbaijani athletes at the Beijing Olympics are the result of the direct care and attention of the President, who is also head of the National Olympic Committee. There are 18 Olympic centres in the republic, while 25 more are under construction. There is a modern sports infrastructure in Baku and the districts, where it is possible to host any international competition.

This also gives a powerful impetus to the development of the districts. 

The domestic policy of the head of state rests on the principle of civil accord and national unity. In 2007, the national programme for the protection of human rights was adopted. Tolerance is part of state policy and this is experienced by all citizens of Azerbaijan, regardless of nationality or creed. The Russian and Jewish communities are actively involved in the country's public and political life, orthodox cathedrals and the synagogue have been restored, a catholic church has been built.

Public and political stability was and still is the priority of domestic policy. Law-enforcement bodies are on the alert for manifestations of Islamic extremism, both in the capital and in districts. Thanks to the prompt action of law-enforcement agencies, those responsible for the explosion in the Baku Abu-Bakr mosque have been detained, an armed Wahhabi group has been detected and rendered harmless etc. In other words, permanent control over the activity of religious communities in conditions of freedom of religion aims to protect the safety of the population.

By following democratic principles, the government is creating favourable conditions for the development of civil society. Mechanisms for public oversight of the executive branch have been developed. The state is stimulating the development of NGOs. In an effort to execute the concept of state support for NGOs in the Azerbaijan Republic, a Council of state support for NGOs was established under the President of the Azerbaijan Republic in 2008. A total of AZN 1.5 billion has been allocated from the state budget to finance projects of national NGOs. To improve the system of state management, the State Programme for fighting corruption (2004-2006) was adopted and implemented and an appropriate state commission established. 

The electoral experience of many countries shows that a high electoral rating is directly proportional to the level of well-being of the population. The tangible positive aspects in the life of the Azerbaijani people predetermine the people's electoral preference. And this preference is Ilham Aliyev.