BETWEEN WEST AND EAST

The worst fears of the most courageous commentators on the political crisis in Ukraine have been confirmed - President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yuliya Timoshenko have destroyed the "orange" coalition. The mutual enmity between the two politicians has a long history - both Timoshenko and Yushchenko have made countless attempts to deprive each other of the reins of power. In early September the Prime Minister dealt another major blow to her rival and this one may prove to be decisive.

On 2 September, the Yuliya Timoshenko Bloc (YTB) and Viktor Yanukovich's Party of Regions voted unanimously for a package of anti-presidential draft laws. The UBT and the Party of Regions together have more than 300 of the 450 votes; this allows them to make changes to the Ukrainian constitution and overrule a presidential veto.

As a result, according to the draft law on the Cabinet of Ministers, adopted with 363 votes although only 226 were needed, the Ukrainian Prime Minister now has the right to conduct international negotiations and sign agreements without reference to the President. The Ukrainian Prime Minister also has the right to fire the ministers of foreign affairs and defence. What is more, the provision compelling the Cabinet of Ministers to fulfil presidential decrees and reply to his appeals has been removed from the law on the Cabinet of Ministers. People authorized by the President can no longer take part in sessions of government committees. The Cabinet of Ministers can issue resolutions and decrees without reference to the Ukrainian President, while the President, for his part, loses the right to initiate the preparation and adoption of acts of the Cabinet of Ministers and to read transcripts of its sessions. Earlier, the parliament had adopted, by the same 363 votes, a draft law significantly simplifying the procedure for impeaching the President. In response, President Yushchenko said that a coup had been carried out in the country, while the pro-presidential party, Our Ukraine, quit the coalition with the Yuliya Timoshenko Bloc, saying that a "new pro-Kremlin majority" has been formed in the parliament.

Our Ukraine was a member of a coalition with People's Self-Defence, forming the Our Ukraine - People's Self-Defence faction (OU-PSD faction). However, the group of deputies from People's Self-Defence refused to support their partners in quitting the alliance with the YTB. A statement issued by People's Self-Defence said that none of its deputies, including the leader of the movement, Ukrainian Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, voted to quit the coalition and the decision to dissolve it "was made by machinations", as a result of which Our Ukraine gave in to the intrigues of the presidential secretariat and, in fact, betrayed its voters.

The whole parliamentary group of People's Self-Defence comprises 17 deputies, while the OU-PSD faction has 72 deputies, 39 of whom voted in favour of quitting the coalition with the YTB.

Yushchenko's companions are 100 per cent sure in their purpose - they said the new laws adopted by the parliament were "a way to impeach the head of state". The President himself immediately made a televised address to the Ukrainian people: "A political and constitutional coup in Ukraine began in the parliament yesterday. Anti-Ukrainian and anti-national decisions were made. The Yuliya Timoshenko Bloc, the Party of Regions and the Communist Party restored the anti-constitutional law of the government, which - I want to remind you - provoked a parliamentary crisis and extraordinary parliamentary elections in 2007. This law establishes a dictatorship of the Prime Minister: the head of government is above the constitution, the decrees of the Ukrainian President and the decisions of the National Security and Defence Council are ignored. The changes to the law on the Constitutional Court make it impossible to appeal against the government's extra-constitutional decisions. The government is getting completely out of hand and the basic balance of power in Ukraine is being destroyed." According to the President, the ineffective work of the Cabinet of Ministers and parliament is a drag on the fight against corruption, on reforms in local government, the armed forces and the land market. Yushchenko also criticised Timoshenko, saying that her actions had brought a high rate of inflation to Ukraine.

In turn, the head of the presidential secretariat, Viktor Baloga, accused the YTB and Viktor Yanukovich's party of preparing a coup, following a plan drawn up by Viktor Medvedchuk, the former head of the presidential administration under Leonid Kuchma; he said they have "ideologues and protectors in Moscow".

Moreover, according to Ukrainskaya Pravda, Baloga is convinced that Prime Minister Yuliya Timoshenko is planning to kill him. "I have been receiving information from reliable sources that there are plans to eliminate me physically because of my work as head of the Ukrainian president's secretariat. According to this information, the initiator and mastermind behind specific actions aimed at my assassination is Prime Minister Yuliya Timoshenko," said Baloga in an official letter to Valentin Nalivaychenko, the acting chairman of the Ukrainian security service. The letter indicates possible scenarios for an assassination attempt on Baloga's life: poisoning, a staged traffic accident or use of firearms or explosives. At the same time Baloga thinks that a coalition of the YTB and the Party of Regions in the Ukrainian parliament is already in place, because both factions vote unanimously.

Meanwhile, under Ukrainian law the coalition has 10 days to settle the situation. If this does not happen it should be dissolved and, according to the constitution, a new coalition should be formed within 30 days. Otherwise, the President has the right to dissolve the parliament, which would mean extraordinary parliamentary elections. However, according to another part of the legislation, the parliament can only be dissolved one year after it begins work (from November 2007). "From a legal point of view, I see events in the Ukrainian parliament as the formal beginning of a new parliamentary coalition. If factions of deputies do not form a coalition within the period stipulated by the country's basic law, I will exercise my right to dissolve the parliament and declare extraordinary elections," said Yushchenko.

Meanwhile, the YTB said that it does not see any coalition other than a democratic one and accused the President of treachery: "Yushchenko has already betrayed the Democratic Coalition twice: in 2005 when he fired Yuliya Timoshenko's government and now - he began to destroy the Democratic Coalition from the first moments of its existence." "The YTB has not and will never quit the parliamentary coalition which it set up with the pro-presidential bloc Our Ukraine - People's Self-Defence," Timoshenko says in a letter to Yushchenko, in response to the President's ultimatum that the YTB must return to the parliamentary coalition. Yushchenko recently put forward a number of conditions under which the YTB can return to the OU-PSD coalition: the expression of a clear position on the Georgia-South Ossetia conflict and the repeal of a number of laws adopted by the parliament. In response, the Ukrainian Prime Minister advised Yushchenko to appeal to the Constitutional Court and said that she herself could also put forward "a hundred ultimatums" to the president, "if she was thinking not about the interests of the state, but about the next presidential campaign".

As for the leader of the Party of Regions, Viktor Yanukovich, he said that he regards the creation of a coalition with the YTB as quite possible. According to Yanukovich, he would not object to Timoshenko's candidacy for the post of Prime Minister if he won the presidential elections.

As a result, various options for the development of the political crisis in Ukraine have been discussed since early September: the restoration of the "orange" coalition, the creation of a new one, the dissolution of the parliament and even the impeachment of the President. If the attempt to reconcile members of the "orange" coalition is successful, it will have a chance of lasting until the presidential elections in 2010. In the worst-case scenario, extraordinary presidential (by means of impeachment) and parliamentary elections may take place in March next year. There is also an opinion that the parliament may form a so-called situational majority without setting up a coalition, i.e. the President, who could formally dissolve the parliament, would not use his right.

The most interesting thing is the possibility of a union between previously uncompromising enemies - the YTB and the Party of Regions under the name "East and West Together". Of course, this is no bad idea. Much has been said about the differences between the Ukrainian East and West - it is necessary to begin a rapprochement as soon as possible. Many see this as key to the development and stability of the whole Ukrainian state. However, the issue is how possible it may be in the current situation. A number of experts believe that a coalition with the "regionals" may be a tragic mistake for the YTB, because Timoshenko has always presented herself as a principled opponent of the Party of Regions.

"Perhaps, the Prime Minister has fallen victim to alien experiments on earthlings," Ukrainians joke. Such a strange idea has its origins in a statement Timosheko herself made in January 2006, during an online conference in Ukrainskaya Pravda. "Our bloc can unite with the Party of Regions only if a UFO abducts me, carries out illegal experiments on me and deprives me of my memory and intellect. There is no other chance of such an alliance," Yuliya Timoshenko said at the time. Meticulous journalists also reminded her of a statement she made at a rally less than a year ago: "If you suddenly decide to vote for the Party of Regions, please go to church and be exorcised of your evil curse." Analysts believe that a possible coalition of "East and West Together" promises no-one any good and Yanukovich himself may also lose voters because of his friendship with the "orange" lady.

The answer to the question as to whether Timoshenko is really ready to make peace with Yanukovich, bypassing Yushchenko, is quite clear to the Ukrainian President - when it is of benefit, the YTB would unite even with the "regionals" and communists. There is one more item of note here. The conflict between Yushchenko and Timoshenko deteriorated at the moment when relations between Kiev and Moscow deteriorated against the background of the latest events in the Caucasus. Russia did not like it when Yushchenko gave his Georgian counterpart Mikhail Saakashvili such strong support and spoke about new conditions for the presence of the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol. In response, Russia accused Kiev of supplying arms to Georgia and a great number of commentaries and opinions appeared on the Internet and Russian television concerning the ownership of Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula.

Meanwhile, Timoshenko's long silence about the war between Georgia and Russia allowed Yushchenko to accuse the Prime Minister of high treason. The presidential team said that Moscow allegedly promised to help the Ukrainian Prime Minister in the forthcoming presidential elections in exchange for her refusal to support Georgia in the military conflict with the Russian Federation. Yushchenko had earlier accused Timoshenko of lobbying for Russia's interests in connection with her opposition to the presidential decree on the commissioning of the Odessa-Brody pipeline in reverse mode.

In these conditions, it is only clear that extraordinary elections will seriously aggravate the situation in Ukraine, making it even more tense. There is no unity in the country anyway, while the uncompromising fight between the President and the Prime Minister does not make things any better, especially as previous and current experience shows that not a single political alliance in Ukraine can be stable and, most importantly, effective in terms of state administration. Ukrainian politicians need to understand that the country cannot hold elections for ever. After all, this does not have a good effect on the national economy and this affects the socially vulnerable section of the population.

On the other hand, the political crisis in Ukraine is not down just to foreign events. As long as the country remains sandwiched between its western and eastern regions, instability will continue.