UNITING THE "DISUNITED"

The war in South Ossetia put an end to the fragile stability that had been maintained in the South Caucasus since the collapse of the Soviet Union and became a starting point for another stage in the process of redrawing borders in this explosive region.

Trying to secure an advantageous balance of forces, Ankara urged the sides to cease fire on the first day of active hostilities. Turkey clearly understands that Russia may try to change the unfavourable situation in this region of strategic importance, driving away all its rivals, including the USA, the European Union and even Turkey itself, for a long time.

The failure of the Georgian plan to restore its control over the country's separatist regions forced the Turkish leadership to take active action. On 11 August, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan proposed forming the Caucasus platform of stability and cooperation which would become a kind of "Caucasus Union". Having agreed his actions with Turkish President Abdullah Gul, Erdogan tried to implement a new idea, which is why he visited Moscow and Tbilisi, and Turkish analysts believe that he enlisted support from both conflicting sides. Several days later, Erdogan arrived in Baku on a short visit, trying to enlist support from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

What is behind the initiative on the Caucasus platform of stability and cooperation and why did Ankara, which rejected a similar idea in 2000, initiate it?

First of all, it is planned that the Caucasus platform of stability and cooperation will become an analogue of the Stability Pact for South-Eastern (Balkan) Europe, which was rejected in 2008 due to its extreme sluggishness and bureaucratic obstacles. The Stability Pact for South-Eastern Europe which was created in Soviet times (30 July 1989) was supposed to form a climate of tolerance in Eastern Europe with the support of the OSCE and become an example to future initiatives regarding the integration of the former socialist camp countries into the European family.

This is confirmed by the idea of creating a stability pact for the Caucasus, which was first proposed by Turkish President Suleyman Demirel in Tbilisi on 15 January 2000. According to the authors of the idea, both the west and the east of the Black Sea region are an integral part of the European continent, which is why stability is needed on both of its "parts".

At a joint news conference with Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, Demirel said that the Stability Pact for the Caucasus would be operating under the protection of the OSCE, which was confirmed by Tbilisi. If we take into account that Iran is not a member of the OSCE, the position of Tehran which was sidelined from the project turned out to be quite predictable.

On 24-25 January of the same year, Demirel sent letters to regional heads of state, as well as to US and Western European leaders, asking them to support Ankara's new initiative. The USA, France, Germany, Britain, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia, Armenia and the European Union responded to his appeal.

In his letter, the Turkish head of state emphasized that the Caucasus is the second region of Europe after the Balkans where "stability is in permanent danger". Demirel stressed that unsolved conflicts require consolidated efforts from all interested sides. In this way, the first stage of forming the new organization was successfully passed.

However, 10 days later the summit of leaders of CIS member states held in Moscow on 24-25 January 2000 said that the South Caucasus countries will hardly support the format of the Stability Pact for the Caucasus whose borders are much wider than those of the Commonwealth. Moreover, Russia's participation in the new entity was understated.

This meant that Moscow did not want to "solve CIS family problems" by means of foreign forces. In response, Ankara rejected the idea, thinking that any initiative in the Caucasus will be ineffective without Russia's participation.

Eight years later, the idea of a common format for stability in the Caucasus has become topical again. In this way, Ankara made it clear that the Caucasus has become "a zone of paramount strategic importance" for Turkey.

According to Ankara's idea, a union of politicians, public figures and leaders of non-government organizations brought together by the so-called "Caucasus House" should prepare the ground for the successful formation of such an initiative.

Moreover, according to Ankara's idea, a "Caucasus Club" can also be established - a copy of the "Balkan Club" which includes former leaders of Balkan states. This will make it possible to gain support from political elites, smoothing over possible critical moments.

In parallel, Ankara tried to resuscitate the action plan on cooperation in the Eurasian region which was signed on 6 November 2001 between Turkey and the Russian Federation. This would make it possible to involve the Russian Federation in active cooperation in the Caucasus.

Also, in Ankara's opinion, if need be, it would be possible to expand the format of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization (BSECO) which was founded on Ankara's initiative in 1992 in order for BSECO to deal with political issues as well, specifically, with the ensuring of stability.

Understanding that the format of the Caucasus platform of stability and cooperation is impossible without a developed basis of democratic institutions in the South Caucasus countries, Ankara intends to put an emphasis on programmes to support the development of civil society. According to Turkish politicians, without developing civil society it would be impossible to secure the safe transit of energy from Central Asia and Azerbaijan to the world market.

We should also add to this the latest tendencies towards the normalization of relations between Ankara and Armenia. Perhaps, this is the weightiest argument in favour of Turkey's authorship.

The Turkish head of state Abdullah Gul admitted at his Istanbul meeting with his Romanian counterpart Traian Basescu that Ankara is interested in including Armenia in the Caucasus platform of stability and cooperation. This factor allows us to talk about potential disagreements that expect the platform if it is created.

As was expected, Baku was more than restrained about the idea of creating the Caucasus platform of stability and cooperation. It seems that no-one is going to seriously discuss the idea of uniting states that are at war with each other.

Only Iran is missing, and it is impossible to keep it out of the Caucasus in any case, although Ankara is far from taking the most passive position on the issue of Iran now, which is different from the positions of European countries involved in solving the problem of Iran, and the United States. Ankara's position is similar to that of Russia though Ankara is watching the reaction of the White House. The 14-15 August visit to Istanbul by the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mahmud Ahmadinezhad - ahead of Erdogan's visit to Moscow and Tbilisi - is probably an additional confirmation of this.

With his initiative, Erdogan in fact suggested expanding the traditional format of participants in the Caucasus community (Russia, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan) not only by involving his country in it. 

At the same time, the latest decrees issued by Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia allow us to say that the Caucasus platform of stability and cooperation will not be implemented.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov clearly said that Moscow will not establish contacts with "Mikhail Saakashvili's regime", which means that the latest initiatives of Ankara will not be implemented for a long time. The steps of the Turkish leadership to smooth out relations with the Russian Federation by delaying the entry of NATO battleships into the Black Sea proved ineffective.

This is also proved by a statement made by Georgia's ambassador in Ankara, Gligol Mgalobishvili, who said that without the full withdrawal of Russian troops from the Caucasus, cooperation with Moscow is impossible. He said that "Tbilisi is ready for cooperation with Ankara in any format that does not include Russia". "We also warned the Turkish prime minister about this during his visit to Tbilisi," the Georgian diplomat pointed out.

This way or another, Ankara itself is facing a difficult choice today. Moscow's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia plays into the hands of Turkey's position on the Northern Cyprus issue. In essence, Moscow took the same step as Ankara which recognized the independence of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus several decades ago, and the two countries are taking similar positions here.

However, the negative position by NATO, of which Turkey is a member, as well as by the European Union which Ankara has been unsuccessfully trying to join, not to mention the clearly negative reaction of Washington, force Turkey to keep silent.

By supporting Moscow on the South Ossetia and Abkhazia issues, Turkey may undermine its relations Georgia and nullify all the energy and transport projects in the South Caucasus region.

Such a step will also leave its mark on Turkey's relations with Azerbaijan. This means a total loss of positions in the South Caucasus, while active cooperation with Central Asian countries can be forgotten forever.

Incidentally, it must be noted that even in Turkey itself, Erdogan's initiative was not taken seriously. Representatives of the country's leading opposition party - the Republican People's Party - said that any cooperation between Turkey and Yerevan is impossible at the moment. "As long as Armenia occupies Azerbaijani territories, cooperation within the framework of a single regional political format is impossible. Turkey should value its only strategic partner in the region - Azerbaijan," the Republican leader Deniz Baykal said.

A deputy from the Nationalist People's Party and former ambassador, Deniz Bolukbasi, said that "the idea of the Caucasus platform of stability and cooperation was not taken seriously in any of the capitals visited by the Turkish prime minister". In this regard, the MP wondered: "What cooperation are we talking about when one fifth of Azerbaijani territory is occupied by Armenia which also has territorial claims to Georgia and Turkey?" He said that the Turkish Foreign Ministry is not carrying out any preparatory work to create the platform. "All this is being done to create a veneer of active work by the prime minister who is capable of solving all problems both inside the country and abroad," Bolukbasi said, stressing that "an initiative that has not been agreed with the West cannot be taken seriously". 

In some way, the words of the Turkish MP dovetail with the statement by US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza who said that Washington "was surprised at Ankara's initiative to establish the Caucasus platform of stability and cooperation". "We thought that Turkey and the USA are pursuing a coordinated policy in the South Caucasus. However, Ankara did not inform Washington about this issue, and we were sincerely surprised at the actions of our partner," Bryza said. The administration of the Turkish prime minister probably understands it very well. Then a reasonable question arises: What was the aim of this initiative?

To all appearances, the answer is that in this way, Turkey decided to openly say that it has the right to take an active part in regional affairs and intends to use the current situation for its own purpose. Except for Armenia, Turkey maintains good relations with all the Caucasian states, while for Azerbaijan and Georgia this country is an important strategic partner in the region. As far as Armenia is concerned, thanks to its initiative Turkey has a chance to establish a dialogue with this country. According to the Turkish premier, the format of such a dialogue is planned to be discussed with the Russian foreign minister. This way or another, Turkey has its own designs on the Caucasus and has already openly announced this.