TIME TO THINK

The director of the Centre for International Governance at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Dr Daniel Warner, is a frequent guest in the South Caucasus. Since 1997, he has organized training sessions here which have been attended by more than 250 representatives of government agencies. Warner regards the Caucasus as a complicated region which consists of three different countries with different languages and histories and is surrounded by three centres of power - Russia, Turkey and Iran. According to the Swiss scientist, the West's geopolitical interest in the South Caucasus is based on pipelines going through the region, natural reserves of the region and so on. At the request of R+, Warner commented on the situation surrounding conflicts in the region.

- I would like to learn your opinion about the deteriorating conflicts in the South Caucasus. I mean the South Ossetia and Abkhazia conflicts.

- Issues of autonomy and sovereignty have always been complicated. For example, Switzerland is a free federation and can serve as an example to Georgia. Today we can see that foreign forces are interfering in these conflicts. I think that they will not achieve anything in this way, i.e. this interference is useless.

- What may the consequences of the current tensions in the region be like?

- The outbreak of the conflict between Georgia and Russia was unexpected for people who had concentrated their attention on Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran and the Middle East at large. This conflict may have heavy consequences not just for this region but also for the whole world. From a regional point of view, Russia's actions can be assessed as an attempt to maintain its influence on the southern borders. On the global scale, these are defensive steps by the Russian authorities and disrespect for the West's opinion. After this, the already strained relations between Russia and the West, specifically the USA, will deteriorate even more. As is known, Georgia is an important partner of the USA, and Russia proved that Washington could not defend its ally. Another confirmation of deteriorating relations was the signing of the agreement on the deployment of elements of the US missile defence system in Poland.

- Is there any way that this situation in Georgia's conflict regions will affect the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in Nagornyy Karabakh?

- Let's hope that the deterioration of the conflict between Georgia and Russia will serve to increase the attention of world leaders to the settlement of frozen conflicts in the region, which will help reduce tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

- Incidentally, what can you say about possible ways of solving the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict?

- There can be no losers or winners here. In order to find a solution that is acceptable to everyone, both sides should make a compromise. Taking account of the number of refugees and displaced persons, Nagornyy Karabakh is a harsh domestic issue for Azerbaijan. However, this issue cannot be solved militarily. The Minsk Group and other institutions are trying to find ways of solving this problem. I hope that they will achieve this in the future. On the whole, taking account of the existing political atmosphere, the OSCE Minsk Group is doing everything possible though it has been unable to secure a positive solution to the conflict. International organizations are searching for ways of solving these problems, however in any case the settlement of conflicts depends on the sides involved in them.

- What are the main factors that prevent a solution to conflicts in the Caucasus?

- Both sides reject compromises, while their leaders aspire to a full and unconditional victory, which I think is not rational. In essence, the negotiations should be aimed not just at securing victory, but also at a strong solution without discriminating against one of the sides. In other words, both sides should come out of the current situation with credit. If you pay attention, there are mainly three different languages and three cultures that are capable of co-existing. If we compare, we will find out that all conflicts in the region are identical, because certain groups refuse to live together with representatives of other groups. I would be very surprised if these conflicts were solved in the near future. Under political pressure, the current generation of leaders has no intention of changing their positions. However, we hope that the conflicts in the South Caucasus will not remain frozen, but we would not like them to break out again. We would not like them to last many years.

- In one of your interviews, you said that there is US influence in Georgia and Russian influence in Armenia. Can you say that Azerbaijan is a country that is pursuing an independent policy?

- Yes. Thanks to its economic importance and subtle diplomacy, Azerbaijan has managed to ensure an independent foreign policy.

- How do you see Azerbaijan's role in the region?

- Azerbaijan has two distinguishing features. The first one is that thanks to oil, Azerbaijan has a chance of becoming a rich country. The rapid growth in oil prices in the recent period also speaks in favour of Azerbaijan. The second one is that thanks to its geographical location, Azerbaijan serves not only as a bridge to Central Asia, but also to the whole Asian continent. Its economic potential and friendly relations with almost all neighbouring states increase the importance of this country even more. Azerbaijan is not a world leader, but it is one of important players. Today Europe is closely following all developments in Azerbaijan. Free and fair elections, democracy and human rights are of special importance to Europe, and Europe sees the forthcoming elections in Azerbaijan through this prism.

- On which issues is Azerbaijan regarded as Europe's major partner?

- Azerbaijan is important to Europe as a supplier of energy resources and as a centre where routes of their transportation converge.

- Azerbaijan is now actively integrating into the world community. Where do you think this process of globalization will take us?

- Azerbaijan has become more cosmopolitan. I was very touched when I saw a waiter from South Korea catering for us in a restaurant during our visit to Baku. I think that such openness and sincerity leads to rapprochement and deeper cooperation.