MODEST RESULTS

Often, the more modest results diplomatic negotiations produce, the more rumours appear in the media. This was also proved by the meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia which was held on 1 August. The Moscow round of "big-time diplomacy" on Karabakh also included a meeting with Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Denisov.

Commenting on the results of the dialogue, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said: "The meeting was useful, and we agreed to continue the negotiations, but there is still a long way to go to a breakthrough. If we feel that we are finding common ground, then there is nothing impossible." Nor did the minister rule out possible negotiations between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the future. However, this diplomatic "maybe" more likely means "no". Alas, no breakthrough is expected in the negotiations soon, and to all appearances, Baku does not seem to be inclined to hold meetings for the sake of meetings, especially as later, the head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry press service, Xazar Ibrahim, clearly said that there are no conditions for a meeting between the presidents yet.

In turn, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan said that the negotiations in Moscow discussed ways of moving forward "in compliance with the proposals that were made by the OSCE Minsk Group cochairs in Madrid". The Armenian foreign minister did not rule out that he may meet Mammadyarov during a session of the UN General Assembly. "There are delicate issues that should be approached carefully. We are trying to create conditions to continue the negotiations," Nalbandyan pointed out.

Thus, the results of the meeting turned out to be more than modest, while its participants made quite scanty comments.

Meanwhile, the Interfax news agency quoted the US Assistant Secretary of State and the US cochair of the OSCE Minsk Group, Matthew Bryza, as saying that "residents of Nagornyy Karabakh themselves will decide whether the republic will be under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan or independent. There will be a referendum and residents of Karabakh themselves will decide that." Speaking in Moscow on the results of the meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Bryza noted the importance of establishing trust between the sides and the presence of political will. He also warned against blocking the negotiations.

In turn, Yuriy Merzlyakov, the Russian cochairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, noted the active role of the Minsk Group in settling the Karabakh conflict: "The way the process is going on - the meetings between the presidents and foreign ministers - implies that the Minsk Group is acting normally and the sides to the conflict - Armenia and Azerbaijan - have a constructive attitude towards each other."

However, Baku's reaction can be described with the famous words of Stanislavski: "I don't believe it!" The head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry press service, Xazar Ibrahim, was the first to have advised against whipping up tensions. He said that judging by the pre-history of statements and comments by Mr Bryza, the US cochairman often says that he was misunderstood or misquoted.

After that, Ibrahim advised asking the cochairman himself for explanations. This was a kind of transparent advice to wait for Matthew Bryza himself to issue a denial. Xazar Ibrahim stressed that Azerbaijan's position remains as it was - the peaceful settlement of the conflict should be stage-by-stage, and the first step implies a withdrawal of Armenian troops from all the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, including Nagornyy Karabakh. Then, displaced persons should return to their homes. Only after normal relations between the two communities are restored, will it be possible to start determining the status of Nagornyy Karabakh within the framework of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. This is what the document on the negotiating table says. The Azerbaijani diplomat also stressed that, according to the Azerbaijani Constitution, the referendum can be held only on the whole territory of the country and involve all its citizens.

Several days later, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also confirmed that Azerbaijan's position on the Kababakh settlement was unchangeable. "In the issue of settling the conflict, Baku keeps to an unchangeable position and will not grant Nagornyy Karabakh any status beyond the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Without the consent of the Azerbaijani state, no status will ever be possible. Both Armenia and the OSCE Minsk Group cochairmen who are dealing with this issue are aware of this, and this is a question that is being discussed at the negotiating table," the president said.

Ilham Aliyev also said that the Armenian authorities are trying to convince their fellow citizens that Nagornyy Karabakh will become an independent entity some time in the future. "Although there is not a single document about this on the negotiating table. There is no mechanism for Nagornyy Karabakh's secession from Azerbaijan. But unfortunately, along with Armenian propaganda, some parties can only aggravate the situation even more at the international level by expressing a subjective idea that does not reflect real opinions on this issue and by disseminating false information," the Azerbaijani president stressed.

In essence, Aliyev's statement is a reason to think whether the Interfax report was just a consequence of a journalist's negligence or a deliberate distortion, especially as Matthew Bryza himself said in an interview with Turan: "The Interfax news agency took my words out of context, and presented them as if I said that residents of Nagornyy Karabakh themselves will soon determine their future. In fact, I said that there is a package of proposals, and it is on the negotiating table. These proposals stipulate the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the seven districts around Nagornyy Karabakh, the return of the Azerbaijani population there and to Nagornyy Karabakh, the presence of a peacekeeping force in the region and the establishment of certain links between Armenia and Nagornyy Karabakh. This may also include some form of voting in which residents of Karabakh would participate. What kind of voting or referendum it will be and when it will be held is a subject of the negotiations. We recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. This international principle has high status. At the same time, there are political principles that are important to the Armenian side," Bryza stressed.

The current leadership of Armenia has a reason to mislead its own citizens. The press has repeatedly said that the disposition of forces in the region is not changing in favour of Armenia. Armenia has repeatedly said that it changed after the beginning of the "third oil boom". What's more, clamorous slogans like "Azerbaijan has oil and we have diaspora" are not being vindicated. "Moneybags" from the diaspora "splash out" only on one-off investments, but serious projects need serious investments, and Armenia can get them only if it has a relevant basis, which it does not have at the moment.

After the military parade in Baku to mark the 90th anniversary of the Azerbaijani army, Armenian forums started making comments like "We will win anyway thanks to the high spirit of our troops" - this is serious food for thought. Armenian strategists have nothing but the "spirit" to refer to.

It is not advisable to check the correlation of forces on the battlefield in an empirical way, but Armenia's confidence in its military superiority seems to have been undermined. The visit to Baku by Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev causes doubts as to whether Russia intends to continue supporting its historical ally to the same extent as before. To all appearances, General Bordyuzha managed to dispel these doubts only partially. Yes, he promised that in the event of "aggression" Armenia will be defended by its CSTO partners, but it is not clear whether they will regard hostilities outside Armenian territory as "aggression".

Serzh Sarkisyan's attempt to strike a deal with Turkey did not produce the expected results. The beginning of the construction of the Turkish section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway was rightly assessed in Armenia as a "logistic catastrophe": even if the borders are opened, Yerevan will not be able to restore its previous positions in the regional transport infrastructure. Moreover, the disposition of forces in the diplomatic field is not changing in favour of Armenia.

Matthew Bryza's statement, not its Interfax version of course, gives us a clear idea of what exactly the negotiations are discussing. It is enough to compare various information "leaks" and official statements by the cochairmen in order to understand: if previously the issue was about the withdrawal of troops from two districts, now we are talking about five or seven districts. In a word, it is a rhetorical question who should be making concessions first in this stage. What is more, no-one has abolished international law yet.

Nevertheless, the Armenians are still sure that they gained a "military victory", and now they only have to have its results confirmed in a political way. This is what various "political experts", deputies and many others are talking about. This is not just a desire to put a brave face on a sorry business: defeat in Karabakh may cost the "Karabakh clan" dearly.

Indeed, it is difficult to say that the position of Armenia's new president, Serzh Sarkisyan, is steady. Not only did the bloody tragedy in the streets of Yerevan on 1-2 March this year clearly show how the former "field commanders" and organizers of the Xocali genocide are planning to run their business in Armenia, it also left no doubts that Sarkisyan has no serious support, alas. The opposition is continuing its "disturbing fire" at the authorities, regularly organizing rallies and so on. In this situation, large-scale compromises are unlikely, especially if we take into account that Serzh Sarkisyan conducted his campaign under ultra-nationalist slogans. In essence, the negotiations fell into an "Armenian domestic political trap". We can only hope that common sense will take over in Yerevan.