"A TACTICAL MOVE GOING NOWHERE"

The latest round of secret negotiations between Turkey and Armenia, held in Bern on 8 July, reverberated strongly, not only through the South Caucasus but around the whole world. Although diplomatic relations between Yerevan and Ankara have been in place for several years and have been stepped up since the ascent to power of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government, there was no particular progress in the dialogue between the two neighbours.

Throughout these years the initiative in bilateral relations has been on the side of Ankara which, on 22 April 2005, dealt a "diplomatic blow" to the position of Yerevan in the so-called "Armenian genocide" issue by sending a letter to Yerevan on behalf of the head of the Turkish Cabinet suggesting that a joint historical commission be established to investigate the 1915 events in the Ottoman Empire. The Armenian leadership did not come up with any arguments convincing enough to turn down the suggestion, thus giving Ankara a helping hand in throwing cold water on many anti-Turkish politicians, both in Europe and the USA.

Over the last three years the Armenian side has repeatedly tried to evade discussion of Erdogan's initiative, suggesting that either a conference on "genocide" be held, or an intergovernmental commission be established without a focus on the 1915 events. In response, the Turkish side stressed its readiness for cooperation, provided that a scientific group is set up under the intergovernmental commission, something Yerevan was opposed to.

Although it was perfectly clear to Ankara that the initiative was unlikely to eliminate the "Armenian factor" in the hands of Turkey's opponents, an improvement in relations with Yerevan was out of the question. Over the past years the radical anti-Turkish policy of Armenian President Robert Kocharyan left no hope of finding a way out of the diplomatic impasse. Kocharyan's two presidential terms were marked by an even further toughening of the policy of the first Armenian president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, towards Ankara.

It took Armenia 17 years to understand that no international organization or country is capable of making Turkey change its stance on the "genocide" issue.

The rapid development of Azerbaijan, against the backdrop of Armenia's economy, could not but concern Yerevan, especially since the political course of the re-elected Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has left no opportunity for Armenia to break out of the transport blockade via the Abkhaz railway.

By counting on an "economic miracle" and Russian capital investment in major Armenian enterprises, "Russia's strategic partner in the Caucasus" (due to the state debt) was backing the wrong horse. The last straw was the reconsideration of tariffs for supplies of Russian gas. The new agreement with Gazprom stipulates that the price of the "blue-sky fuel" delivered to Armenia will be brought into line with international rates. This process is expected to be complete by 2012. Considering the fact that most Armenians live below the poverty line and cheap public utilities are an important factor in containing anti-government sentiment in the country, it is not too difficult to calculate the political repercussions of Gazprom's decision. The first price rise is expected in 2009. Realizing that it might prove too tall an order to overcome their dependence on gas, the Armenian leadership is searching desperately for a way out of its predicament.

Having understood that it will be difficult to maintain the balance of forces in the region by means of contributions from the Diaspora alone, the Armenian administration chose the lesser of two evils - to "reconsider" its approach towards Turkey in exchange for the opening of the state border. The Armenian politicians' plan is to take the country out of economic deadlock without having to return the occupied territories to Azerbaijan.

Armenia's new president, Serzh Sargsyan, who recently marked 100 days in office by conducting a news conference in Yerevan, said that the invitation to Abdulla Gul to attend a football match between the two national teams in Yerevan was a "correct decision". "We will wait for an answer for as long as necessary. It is important to realise that neither Turkey nor Armenia can live without diplomatic relations any longer. We are ready to start them, the ball is in Ankara's court now," said Sargsyan, but stopping short of saying which of Turkey's three demands he was ready to meet. 

It is no secret that Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Armenia's independence in 1991. However, two years later anti-Turkish sentiment in Yerevan, as well as the occupation of Azerbaijani territories, led to a deterioration in bilateral relations with the subsequent closure of the border. Today, as in 1993, Turkey's demands to Armenia are unchanged. They can be summarised as follows: give up the policy of recognition of a trumped-up Armenian genocide, give up territorial claims to Turkey and vacate occupied Azerbaijani territories.

According to Article 11 of the Armenian Declaration of Independence, adopted by the Supreme Council on 23 August 1990, "the Republic of Armenia supports the cause of international recognition of the genocide of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey and Western Armenia in 1915".

At the same time, the Armenian parliament declared, on 23 September 1991, its adherence to the provisions of the Declaration of Independence, while the Armenian Constitution, adopted by the 1995 referendum, clearly states that "Armenia will follow the national objectives approved by the Declaration of Independence". In February 1991, the Armenian parliament announced its non-recognition of the borders with Turkey which were established by the 1921 Kars treaty.

The words "Western Armenia" in the declaration refer to eastern and south-eastern provinces of Turkey, as well as to the Turkish section of the eastern Black Sea coast. The negative reaction of Ankara is quite understandable in the light of Armenian claims to the so-called "symbol of lost Armenian territories" - the Agra mountain (Ararat). 

Back in May 2004 the late Armenian prime minister, Andranik Markaryan, publicly stated that "recognition by Yerevan of even one of Turkey's three demands would lead to the destruction of a strong Armenian state". "If we want land from Turkey, we must declare that in public and insist on recognition of the genocide by Ankara with all the consequences this may entail." 

It remains to be seen, however, which of Ankara's three demands Armenia intends to reconsider - most likely, the first. This is supported by recent statements by Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan, who called on Armenian youngsters to switch from anti-Turkish rhetoric to the protection of Armenian state values. The activities of Armenian organizations over recent decades have largely been based on the concept of "genocide" and a blow from the "historical motherland" will almost certainly cause irreparable damage to the lobby.

It is worth noting that relationships within the Armenian lobby during Robert Kocharyan's presidency were rather tense. Earlier this year, the multi-million strong Diaspora supporting the opposition entered into an open stand-off with the Armenian authorities, while the bloody events of 1 March in Yerevan resulted in thousands of people taking to streets in support of Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Protesters in Los Angeles and other cities around the world were chanting "Levon, Levon" and "Down with Sarkisyan". In this context it is quite easy to imagine what even the smallest changes to the policy of "genocide" recognition could lead to. So even in Armenia itself Gul's invitation to Yerevan is seen as a "tactical move which will not be followed up". 

There have always been meetings between Armenian and Turkish diplomats. For example, the Armenian deputy foreign minister, Arman Kirakosyan, visited Istanbul to attend the funeral of the chief editor of the Armenian-language Agos newspaper. While in Istanbul, he held talks with Turkish diplomats. Mr. Kirakosyan told Turkish journalists again that Yerevan was ready to improve relations with Turkey without any preconditions. In response the Turkish side said that Yerevan had to put pressure on the Armenian lobby to stop its anti-Turkish propaganda. Ankara treated with "reserved optimism" Kirakosyan's statement that "there are no enemies of Turkey in Armenia". Subsequent developments showed that there was nothing behind the statement by the Armenian deputy foreign minister. The policy of recognition of a made-up genocide continues, while Turkish flags are still being torn to pieces in the presence of Armenian presidents during days of remembrance for the so-called victims of "genocide".

According to the Turkish media, Ankara has clearly stated its readiness to unblock the state border immediately if Armenia abandons the "genocide" policy and recognizes the Kars agreement which established the current border between the two countries.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan has said that a decision on President Abdulla Gul's visit to Yerevan will depend on developments in the coming months. Turkish analysts think Ankara is thus giving "Yerevan time to think over the initiatives which could have been tabled during the latest talks in Switerland".

Unlike in the political sphere, economic relations between the two countries are powering ahead. According to official statistics more than 50,000 of the 3-million Armenian population take their holidays in Turkish resorts every year, while trade turnover between the two countries exceeds $160 million. Turkish authorities also turn a blind eye to the illegal employment of 70,000 Armenian citizens in the country.

At the same time, anti-Armenian rhetoric in Turkey has subsided significantly of late. Pro-Armenian articles in the media are commonplace, while anti-Armenian statements are nipped in the bud. The latest example occurred on 27 April in the town of Iqdir, where the police prevented an attempt by a group of citizens to burn an Armenian flag in response to humiliation of the Turkish flag in Yerevan.

It must be remembered that the opening of the border will play into the hands of Armenia, while Turkey will receive a huge army of semi-starved Armenians flooding the country in search of jobs. Turkey's economic gain from a precarious Armenian market of 3-million would be minute. How would Ankara benefit? Perhaps it will feel proud of having met yet another demand of the US and EU… And it will be worth forgetting about its alliance with Azerbaijan.