A ROUTE THAT GOES FURTHER

On 24 July, the presidents of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia, Ilham Aliyev, Abdullah Gul and Mikheil Saakashvili, laid the foundations of the Turkish section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway. This event demonstrated to the world once again an example of regional cooperation, the firmness of intentions and the determination of all three countries to bring the project to its end despite all obstacles.

Everyone gains

Opening the ceremony, Turkish Transport Minister Binali Yildirim described the beginning of the construction of the 76 km Turkish section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway as a historic event. The minister said that this project brings even closer Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia which are already cooperating in all spheres. He said this route will play an important role in the development of transport relations not just between these three countries, but also between other states which will benefit from its services.

Addressing the ceremony, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili assessed the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway as one of the main projects of the century. He stressed that it will increase the export potentials of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia, because each of these three countries will get a beneficial route to Europe. Noting Azerbaijan's great support for the implementation of the Georgian part of the project, Saakashvili stressed that this construction would have been impossible without the decisive position and active assistance of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. For Georgia, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars project, just like its preceding energy "fellows" Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum, are an irreplaceable chance to secure not only its economic welfare, but also the country's independence. "Today is a historic day. Georgia is breaking the deadlock," Saakashvili said at a ceremony to lay the foundations of the Georgian section of BTK at the end of 2007, adding that after the blocking of railway communications with Russia through Abkhazia, Georgia was sidelined from the main railway lines.

In this context, Saakashvili's statement that Georgia sees Azerbaijan as a guarantor of its independence deserves special attention. "Azerbaijan is the main guarantor of our independence and successful development," the Georgian president said in Kars, thanking his Azerbaijani counterpart for his support at the most difficult times.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also noted the high role of large-scale energy and transport projects initiated by Azerbaijan. He described the beginning of the construction of the Turkish section of the railroad as another historic event in cooperation between the two countries. Today Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia are writing new history, the Azerbaijani head of state said. President Ilham Aliyev assesses this railway project as another example of fruitful cooperation

between the three countries. Talking about successful interaction between Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia, Ilham Aliyev stressed that today thanks to the political will, cooperation and unity of the peoples of the three countries, such projects as Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum, which are of great importance not just to the region, but also to the whole world, are being carried out.

In turn, Turkish President Abdullah Gul assessed the implementation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project as a revival of the historic Silk Route. Not only will this project link Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia, it will also become an important transport hub between Europe and Asia, he pointed out. After the commissioning of the railway which will link Asia and Europe, we will be able to travel from Kars to Kazakhstan and then access Shanghai and Hong Kong, the Turkish president said. "When the project is implemented, we will be able to transport not only passengers, but also a great amount of cargo from Central Asia to Europe and back. In this sense, the project will link not only two different geographies, but also cultures. For this reason, it is not difficult to understand its importance," Gul said.

Political and economic components

The fact that the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway is meant to link not only the three countries, but also Asia and Europe was stated at the very beginning of the implementation of the project. This circumstance increased its economic and political significance even more. But the political component of this issue attracted the attention of its adversaries and ill-wishers even more than the economic one. The press and various other circles expressed doubts about the interest of Kazakhstan, China and India in this project. But the signing of the protocol on Kazakhstan joining the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway dispelled all doubts on that score. Moreover, some analysts and politicians said that such industrial giants as China and South Korea are unlikely to switch from sea to railway transportation because expenses on sea transportation are much lower. But if today the presidents of the member countries of the project openly name specific states, including China itself, the interests of which this project serves, this means that there are grounds for that.

In the past, the world witnessed myriads of sceptical predictions about the prospects of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan main export oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline. Doubts were expressed about Azerbaijan having enough reserves to fill these pipelines, as well as about Caspian neighbours - Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan - participating in it. But the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which used to be regarded as a myth, is now working at full stretch using only Azerbaijani oil. Ilham Aliyev observed that Azerbaijani oil will secure the full operation of this route for many years ahead. In 2009, the pipeline will be working at full stretch and more than 50 million tonnes of oil will be transported by it. In the future, Kazakhstan will also transport its oil by this route. The state of affairs with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan gas pipeline is no worse. In the long-term, it might turn into one of the main sources of Europe's energy security, especially as the results of exploration work are promising - natural gas reserves in Azerbaijan have grown to 2,000 billion cubic metres, according to minimum calculations.

Thus, Baku-Tbilisi-Kars has become the third large-scale project being implemented by Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia after Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum. Today the presidents of these countries have every reason to cite their cooperation as an example to the whole world. "I can say that in the whole world you will probably not see cooperation between three countries - trilateral cooperation, there is no analogue of that. This is cooperation in political, economic and cultural spheres, but it is also important in terms of implementing real projects. Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan have implemented together large-scale projects that are important not just to our countries and peoples, but also to the whole of Europe and the world," Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said at the ceremony to lay the foundations of the Turkish section of BTK.

We should observe that cooperation between Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey is not limited to trilateral projects. The heads of state also listed some important bilateral projects. Among them are the joint Turkish-Georgian airport in Batumi, the Azerbaijani terminal in Qulevi on Georgia's Black Sea coast and others.

In this regard, the statement by the Turkish president about a new economic region emerging in the world seems quite interesting. "We see with great hope and happiness that a good economic region is emerging the name of which has yet to be announced," Gul said. We are talking not about a closed area limited to three states here. The doors of the new economic region are open to all the countries of the Caucasus and the geographic region, but on one condition, the Turkish president stressed. "They are open to every country that promotes stability and peace in the region and attaches importance to and respects neighbourly relations," Gul said clearly hinting at the position of Armenia which has been sidelined from regional cooperation due to its aggressive policy against its neighbours.

Armenians throw a spanner in the works

Incidentally, the Armenian factor made its presence felt ahead of the ceremony to lay the foundations of the Turkish section of BTK. On 18 July, an explosion occurred near the house of a local police chief in the district centre of Akhalkalaki (Georgia). According to the media, on the same evening the Georgian law-enforcement agencies started arrests of functionaries of the United Javakhk organization, which were accompanied by police casualties. What is the link between this incident and the BTK project? Let's note one circumstance. Akhalkalaki (the Georgian region of Samtskhe-Javakheti), where the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway passes, is populated mainly by Armenians, and the police chief outside whose house the explosion occurred is also Armenian. The same United Javakhk organization is also functioning here. At the instigation of Armenia, it is doing its best to prevent the implementation of the BTK project. It is no accident that immediately after the explosion and arrests of the leaders of the United Javakhk alliance, the Armenian media reported that the explosion was a provocation and a result of the deliberate policy of the Georgian authorities who are trying to oust the Armenians from their homes. It is a clearly "ancient Armenian method": You carry out a provocation first and then shout "Help, they are killing us!" This method was successfully tested by Armenian organizations in 1988 in Sumqayit (Azerbaijan). Then the investigation proved that the main agents provocateurs and organizers of the pogroms in the houses of Sumqayit Armenians were Armenians themselves. In the case of Georgia, there is nothing to prove. For example, this is what the chairman of the Union of Armenian Political Experts, Amayak Ovannisyan, says: "The situation in this region is quite serious because activists of the youth organization United Javakhk, who have repeatedly expressed the dissatisfaction of the local Armenian population both with the general policy of Tbilisi officials and with the construction of this railway (BTK) through the territory of predominantly Armenian-populated Javakhk, have been arrested." And here is the conclusion drawn by the analytical group of the PAN Armenian new agency: "If the railway (BTK) is opened in 2011, which we do not doubt, then the future of Javakhk as an Armenian-populated region of Georgia will be very vague. By 2011, Georgia will have to fulfill Council of Europe resolutions on the resettlement of Meskhetian Turks who will be settled exactly in Samtskhe-Javakheti." It is enough to read these statements in order to understand who is more interested in provocations - the Georgian authorities or Armenian separatists.

This is only one fresh example, but there is no guarantee that attempts to hinder cooperation between the countries of the region will not be repeated again. One thing is clear: the implementation of regional projects between Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia has turned into an irreversible process and no provocations are capable of stopping it. On the contrary, these projects determine the developments in the region today, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said. "Today we see that the number of countries which want to join our projects is increasing," the president said, expressing confidence that Baku-Tbilisi-Kars will have the same destiny as Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum because there are all prerequisites for that.