PROSPECTS AND ACHIEVEMENTS

The Organization for Democracy and Economic Development - GUAM held its third summit at the beginning of July in Batumi. The presidents of Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Georgia, Poland, Lithuania and Romania took part in the summit, while official representatives of Turkey, Bulgaria, the USA, Japan, Latvia and Estonia also attended. In all, 25 countries and international organizations were represented in Batumi. 

The agenda included discussion of joint energy and transport projects in the region, GUAM's relations with major international organizations - the UN, OSCE, Council of Europe, European Union and NATO - and other issues. The forum also included special meetings in the GUAM+ format with senior representatives of the USA, Japan and Poland which discussed international political issues of the day, bilateral relations and other questions. 

The summit ended by adopting a declaration, GUAM Unites the East and Europe, setting out the organization's priorities in the short term. The start of the New Eurasian Transport Initiative was also announced. Drawn up within the framework of the International Road Transport Union, the initiative envisages developing the trans-Caspian and trans-Black Sea sections of the GUAM corridor. The document lends its support to specific projects to complete the organization's transport infrastructure and notes the need for a common transport policy. The document was signed by the presidents of Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania and Poland and the heads of the government delegations of states participating in the summit. 

Talking about the outcome of the Batumi summit, GUAM Secretary-General Valeri Chechelashvili said: "Our main, founding objective is to create cooperation in the GUAM area based on European standards, practice and criteria. This will allow us, in line with national priorities, to come closer to Europe as quickly as possible. This is a common foreign policy priority, which unites all four countries and this is a very firm platform for our further cooperation. The Batumi summit confirms this. It confirms that GUAM is a European organization promoting the implementation of plans on the path to the European Union."

Other heads of GUAM participating states spoke in a similar vein. "Not only the past unites us, the future does too," Ukrainian leader Viktor Yushchenko said. "We have an interest in completing our integration into the European Union and in joining the pan-European security model. And I am sure that from the position that we hold today we will achieve the goals we have set." 

Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stressed another important aspect to GUAM's activity at the summit's closing press conference: "Regional security issues must not be ignored. Our future development and economic and social progress depend on regional security issues. The territorial integrity of our states has been broken. Georgia and Azerbaijan have suffered ethnic cleansing on their territory. As a result of this policy, hundreds of thousands of our people have become refugees and lost their homes and property and basic human rights have been violated. A huge number of people have fallen victim to separatist aggression. We are united in the view that territorial integrity must be restored. And in Azerbaijan we are doing our utmost to ensure a political settlement of the problem. But this must take into account the principles of territorial integrity and international law. Regional security issues, therefore, demand considerable attention." Ilham Aliyev went on to say, "Today energy security is one of the most important issues on the whole world's agenda and Georgia and Azerbaijan, as friends and allies, are doing a great deal to make their contribution to energy security." "For example, we are now working on implementing the Odessa - Brody - Gdansk - Plotsk oil pipeline… Our friends - Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania - are also taking part in these projects. I am sure that over time regional cooperation and partnership will strengthen even further. Today it is already a reality that the countries of the Caspian, Black Sea and Baltic are pooling resources to start construction of new corridors, to set up communications networks between different peoples. This is a fine example of how different states can join forces," the Azerbaijani president stressed. 

For his part, the summit's host, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, praised the cooperation of the GUAM countries on energy and transport and also commented on mutual support to oppose aggressive separatism. After all, Tbilisi, which is coming under increasing pressure from a Moscow displeased with Georgia's attempts to join NATO, now really needs such solidarity. 

Polish President Lech Kaczynski spoke in a similar vein at the summit: "Poland supports the territorial integrity of Georgia and Azerbaijan. I am talking about Abkhazia and South Ossetia and about Nagornyy Karabakh. Of course, no country can tolerate the presence of foreign troops on its territory. Foreign, imperial forces entered Nagornyy Karabakh which was a crude violation of international principles." Lech Kaczynski also said he was convinced that Ukraine and Georgia would definitely become members of the North Atlantic alliance. At least Warsaw will do all that it can to ensure that by the end of the year the states are given a NATO membership action plan.  

The absence of Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin from Batumi prompted a wave of comment in the press. (He wasn't in Baku last year, either.) Voronin is said to be playing some kind of game with Russia in order to win Moscow's favour and then with its help to resolve the Pridnestrovye problem. This is part of the presidential team's election strategy to gain a third win in the 2009 parliamentary polls. Not only did Vladimir Voronin not attend this key event in GUAM's more than 10-year history, he did not send in his stead the prime minister or even the foreign minister but just the interior minister. On the eve of the Batumi forum the Moldovan president made a speech to journalists directly distancing himself from GUAM. The speaker of the Moldovan parliament, Marian Lupu, also voiced his doubts about the effectiveness of the organization. This is not the first time that the current Moldovan leadership has displayed such inconsistency towards GUAM and vacillation between Moscow and the West. The GUAM summit in Batumi took place against the backdrop of the growing efforts of the Kremlin to neutralize and, if it can, destroy GUAM. Many Russian politicians and analysts think that the organization is clearly anti-Russian. Moscow is using the "stick" against Ukraine and Georgia, that is, keeping these countries' traditional exports out of their markets and increasing tariffs for energy, without hesitating to use direct threats and military pressure. By contrast, Moldova and Azerbaijan are being tempted with the "carrot" of preferential trade and readiness for mutually beneficial cooperation on energy. But all this does not make much of an impression on Baku. The Azerbaijani leadership has expressed its readiness to develop mutually beneficial relations with Russia, but without any hint of the possibility of moving into Russia's political slipstream or of giving up the strategic course towards integration with the Euro-Atlantic area. 

The Moldovan leadership is yielding to pressure and behaving inconsistently which is entirely understandable. Unlike Azerbaijan, which can gain confidence from its energy and financial independence and its realization of the strategic significance of its geopolitical position in the South Caucasus, Moldova is a poor country with a split identity (part of the population consider themselves Moldovans and part Romanians) which does not control its most economically developed area, Pridnestrovye. To top it all, President Voronin has recently taken it into his head to aggravate relations with very close neighbour Romania.

Of course, each of the GUAM participating countries has the right to determine its political behaviour in line with its own national interests. But if Chisinau's remoteness from GUAM activities turns it into a kind of Trojan horse, fed by Moscow in order to destroy the integration plans from within, this may require a change to the format of the organization. This will be no disaster, just as Uzbekistan's departure from GUAM was no disaster, especially since Poland, Lithuania and Romania are displaying a lively interest in GUAM. 

Kazakhstan may take some part in GUAM in future. Astana is showing great interest in diversifying the supply routes for its energy resources to foreign markets, in particular in using the trans-Caucasian corridor. Moreover, the Kazakhs are beginning to invest actively in projects in Georgia and Ukraine. A Kazakh delegation, led by the foreign minister, took part in the previous GUAM summit in Baku. Although there was not such high level representation in Batumi, interest in GUAM has not disappeared at all. Kazakhstan and its experienced president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, give priority to economic projects over political ones. But one cannot be divided from the other. With time Kazakhstan will reveal more and more its European ambitions. This is not only a major Asian, but at the same time a European, power. Soon Kazakhstan will be the first of the post-Soviet countries to head the OSCE. Kazakhstan's cautious but entirely predictable drift towards the Euro-Atlantic is bound to make GUAM more attractive to Astana. And, in turn, Kazakhstan's entry into the organization would increase its authority and significance. 

All this is for the future. Now the partnership between the existing GUAM members should be strengthened step by step and cooperation reinforced with interested parties. Georgia, which has taken on the GUAM chairmanship, can and should continue the positive trends which could be seen in the organization's development during Azerbaijan's chairmanship. This is in the interests of both the participating countries and the partners who support them in the East and West, from the USA to Japan.