STRATEGIC VISIT

The visit to Baku by Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedow, which took place on 19-20 May in response to an invitation by his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, aroused great interest. The entire world - from America and Europe to the Asian countries - waited upon the outcome of the visit.

And that is quite understandable: after all, the political and economic future of the huge geopolitical area from Central Asia to the South Caucasus and Europe depended on the exchanges between the two presidents.

The turn in Azerbaijani-Turkmen relations towards closer cooperation took place after the change of leadership in Ashgabat, thanks to the interest of the new Turkmen leader, Mr. Berdimuhammedow, and the patient, but proactive diplomatic efforts of Mr. Aliyev. It was just this political will and effort which brought about the new phase in relations between the two fraternal Caspian nations. It was no exaggeration when the Turkmen president reported to the press on the results of the 19 May talks and said that bilateral relations have "entered a qualitatively different phase" today.

For the first time in years....

Diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan were established on 9 June 1992. The Turkmenistani embassy in Baku opened on 8 June 1999, and the Azerbaijani embassy in Ashgabat in August 2002.

Relations between the two states were far from sunny for many years. They were aggravated by Azerbaijan's debt to Turkmenistan for natural gas supplied between 1993 and 1994.  In 2001, Azerbaijani First Deputy Prime Minister Abbas Abbasov received a letter from his Turkmen counterpart raising the issue of repayment of the outstanding part of the debt.

Azerbaijan was paying its debt, which it undertook to pay back in full by 1998 (according to the government agreement which was signed in 1995), with fresh water, oil industry equipment, light industrial goods and even fluorescent lights. But the country had failed to clear all the debt by the deadline.

According to the Turkmen side's calculations, the debt remaining at that moment was $59.692 million, which Turkmenistan requested in US currency. But Azerbaijan argued that the remaining debt was only $28 million, which it wanted to continue paying back in kind. This disagreement became one of the reasons for the cooling relations between the two states.

Another reason was the position of the late Turkmenbashi, who, taking advantage of the unresolved legal issues on the status of the Caspian Sea, voiced a claim to the Kapaz oil field and the Azari-Ciraq-Gunesli group of deposits in an interview with The Financial Times on 22 January 1997.

With regard to the legal basis of the status of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan abides by the principle of division of the Caspian Sea into national sectors (Russian, Kazakhstani, Azerbaijani, Turkmen and Iranian, which was delimited by the national border of the former USSR), which was introduced in 1970 by the Soviet Oil Industry Ministry. As for Turkmenistan, it demanded the application of practice and precedents in dividing borderline lakes.

Relations between the two countries grew increasingly tense and finally they worsened to the extent that, in summer 2001, Ashgabat recalled its ambassador from Baku.

This tension peaked in April 2002 when, during a summit of the presidents of the five Caspian countries, Saparmyrad Niyyazow told Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev in quite harsh tones that his statement "smells of blood on the Caspian."

Nonetheless, on 8 August 2002, Azerbaijan appointed an ambassador to Turkmenistan. Saparmyrad Niyyazow did not, however, reassign his ambassador in Baku.

In June 2004, Niyyazow listed Azerbaijan among countries which assisted the illegal penetration into their territory of people who had been prosecuted in Turkmenistan -- former chairman of the Turkmen Food Industry Association, Kakazhan Ovezow, former head of the Mary region, Aman Atayev and others.

The emigration of ethnic Azerbaijanis from Turkmenistan began to gain momentum in the same year and continued until recently.

However, after the election, on 11 February 2007, of Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedow as Turkmen president, the atmosphere in bilateral relations started to change, which many experts in Baku associate with the flexibility, pragmatism and wisdom of the Turkmen leader and with his considerable qualities of leadership. He is determined to lead his country into a position of regional leadership and he understands, apparently, that good neighbourly, constructive and mutually profitable relations with Baku are extremely important for achieving his goal. The Turkmen president also clearly realizes that the closer relations between Ashgabat and Baku are, the stronger his negotiating position will be in dialogue with Moscow and Central Asian countries.

On 14 March 2007, Azerbaijani and Turkmen presidents Ilham Aliyev and Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedow held a phone conversation in which they noted the need for the development of bilateral relations.

In June 2007, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedow held a bilateral meeting at the unofficial summit of the CIS countries in St Petersburg, Russia.

On 5 March 2008, Turkmen Deputy Prime Minister Khydyr Saparaliew and Foreign Minister Rashid Meredow arrived in Baku, where they were received by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.  Following their talks, an agreement was signed on the regulation of debt liabilities and financial demands.

In March, Turkmenistan posted its ambassador Anamammad Mammadow to Azerbaijan.

As a result, Turkmen President G. Berdymuhammedow paid an official visit to Baku on 19-20 May 2008 for the first time in the post-independence history of both countries.

"Historic event"

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev hailed Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedow's visit to Baku as an "historic event," and the Turkmen leader himself - a "qualitatively new phase" in the development of bilateral relations.

According to Mr. Aliyev, the two sides discussed concrete steps towards rapprochement for the two countries. In particular, they set out measures which should promote the development of a "powerful transport infrastructure."

"We have also discussed issues surrounding cooperation in the energy sector, in which our countries demonstrate very high returns, and taking part in ensuring the energy security of other nations," the Azerbaijani president noted.

The problem of the Caspian Sea was also discussed during the talks. "We noted with satisfaction the results of the Tehran summit of the Caspian region countries, and also discussed future opportunities for cooperation in the Caspian Sea. We are certain that effective cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in this direction will make comprehensive regulation of the issue possible," Mr. Aliyev underlined.

For his part, Mr. Berdymuhammedow noted that political dialogue between the two countries had become much livelier of late. The Turkmen leader reiterated what had already been accomplished: an exchange of delegation visits, creation of an intergovernmental commission for economic cooperation and regulation of the issue of Azerbaijan's debt to Turkmenistan.

Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedow said that despite the 300% increase in commodity turnover between the two countries in the recent period, the potential for economic cooperation is far from being fully exploited.

The Turkmen president said that the talks focused on the development of cooperation in the fuel and energy sector. The following assessment of the Turkmen leader merits special attention: "We share the view that this sector will become a strategic area for future international partnership. To study in detail the opportunities for cooperation and present them to the world, we have agreed to hold the Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan Conference in Baku in September," the Turkmen president went on.

He also believes that yet another important area of cooperation between Baku and Ashgabat is transport. Mr. Berdymuhammedow noted Azerbaijan's and Turkmenistan's advantageous location on the border of Europe and Asia, which enables the neighbouring countries to direct this advantage towards their own interests and the interests of other nations, both in the West and in the East.

At the same time, the Turkmen leader said that Ashgabat is taking steps to develop the country's transport infrastructure. In particular, the international North-South corridor project is under way in close cooperation with Iran and Kazakhstan. Noting that similar projects are also being implemented in Azerbaijan, Mr. Berdymuhammedow said that this is "not rivalry between the two countries, but an instance of combining efforts which promise real economic benefits for all the countries of the region and which will facilitate an increase in the turnover of goods and movement of passengers."  Mr. Berdymuhammedow also said that Ashgabat was ready to supply Azerbaijan with high-quality textiles and chemicals.

Touching on the problem of the Caspian Sea, the Turkmen president noted that the two sides arrived at a single opinion on the need to "continue constructive talks on the coordination of the positions of all five coastal nations." "The solution of this problem hinges on the realization of the need to transform the Caspian region into an area of peace, good neighbourly relations, stability and mutually beneficial cooperation. We believe that determining the status of the Caspian as soon as possible will enable us to create an appropriate environment for the rational development of its hydrocarbon and biological resources, preservation of the unique ecosystem of the Caspian basin and for active international economic cooperation on the Caspian," the Turkmen leader said.

The talks between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan ended with the signing of seven bilateral documents.

In particular, they signed agreements on cooperation between the chambers of commerce and finance ministries of the two countries, government agreements on combined international shipment, on automotive transport, on coordination in the fields of standardization, metrology and accreditation and on cooperation in the areas of youth policy and sports.

In addition, there was a protocol on cooperation between the foreign ministries of the two countries, which will enable the diplomatic departments of the two countries to intensify their dialogue and partnership in both bilateral and multilateral formats.  

In general and in particular

As noted above, the Turkmen leader's visit to Baku drew attracted attention from the international community. From the moment of the change in leadership of Turkmenistan, the United States and the West have been trying to persuade the hydrocarbon-rich country, which has particularly large natural gas deposits, to join the international energy projects which originate in the Caspian and are intended for the European market.

For example, the regulation of all the points of dispute in the Caspian between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan would at the same time resolve several key problems.

First, the final division of the Caspian Sea between the coastal countries effectively depends on it.  In the case of a positive outcome, which is quite likely to take place in the near future after the latest visit by Gurbanguly Berdymuhamme-dow, the problems of Caspian energy security will be resolved, if not once and for all, then at least mostly. Such a solution is also slowed considerably by the position of Iran, which insists on an equal division of the Caspian Sea. If a bilateral Azerbaijani-Turkmen agreement is signed which is similar to the Azerbaijani-Russian, Azerbaijani-Kazakhstani and Russian-Kazakhstani agreements, Iran will have no other choice but to follow in the footsteps of the other Caspian nations.

Second, an agreement on the status of the Caspian Sea will imply the agreement of the countries on the currently disputed status of the Kapaz deposit, which will also lead to the expansion of energy projects which interest the West.

Third, this might lead to a final agreement on the construction of a Transcaspian gas pipeline (which is lobbied for by the West and is, at the same time, staunchly opposed by certain circles in Russia) with its eventual connection to the already existing Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum trunk pipeline. And this would in large part resolve the issue of the energy security of the entire European continent, which currently depends on Russia for 80% of its gas supply, with all the associated economic and political consequences.

Fourth, such a decision by Turkmenistan would almost certainly sway Kazakhstan in favour of joining the Transcaspian projects, which is what everyone has long been waiting for and for which the West has also been lobbying. Astana, however, in consideration of various issues of a political and economic nature which are painful for Russia, has effectively decided to adopt a wait-and-see position. At the same time, both Ashgabat and Astana have more than once made statements, when commenting on the Transcaspian projects which reach the European markets without going through Russian territory, that they consider it expedient to diversify the transit of their energy resources as much as possible.

Let us not dwell on the political issues of relations between Europe and Russia with respect to these projects: everything is clear to all, and much has been said and written about this. The squall of critical articles in the Russian mass media, which started immediately after the completion of the Turkmen leader's visit to Baku, testifies how pressing this issue is. These projects were called all types of names -- "the bubble," "the mirage," "the illusion."

And articles and statements in the Western media which express the diametrically opposite opinion continue to this day. At the highest level, beginning with Washington and ending with the European Union, the support for Azerbaijani-Turkmen relations in general, and for the future Transcaspian projects in particular, is full and unconditional.

Precisely this "antagonism of statements," if we may use this phrase, is the most illustrative example and the most lucid proof of how much importance both the West and Russia attach to the Caspian region. And politics play an important role here.

If we look at the trends of the last few years, we will see clearly the most important outcome. Beginning in 1994, when Azerbaijan had clearly formulated its energy policy, Baku has achieved practically all the goals it has set. And at one stage the Azerbaijani leadership did not have even half the support which the Western democracies show now for its policy. Furthermore, many of these successes were very hard to achieve because of the tremendous resistance of larger and stronger neighbouring countries. How many times Azerbaijani projects were branded "doomed" and presented as being a matter of pure political expedience!  However, subsequent developments have proved that the course was right. So, certain circles in Moscow and, say, in Tehran had to begrudgingly agree with many of Baku's views.

The only thing that can be said in light of the results of the movement forward is this:  in the near future, the Caspian region will play an even greater role in safeguarding regional stability and European energy security. Baku hopes that the increasing role of the Caspian will rest on the combined efforts and mutually beneficial partnership of the three fraternal Caspian countries: Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.