MEDVEDEV OR PUTIN?

Dmitriy Medvedev was sworn in as Russian president on 7 May. It was all quite solemn and, I would even say, theatrical. A brass band played, artillery rounds were fired and soldiers of the Kremlin regiment, in the uniforms of 18th century Hussars, lined up at the door. The ceremony was attended by the most influential people in Russia - members of the government, top officials in the presidential administration, judges from the Constitutional Court, members of the Federation Council, members of the State Duma, governors, Patriarch Aleksiy and hierarchs of the Russian Orthodox Church, heads of other religious confessions, representatives of business, culture, scientists, sportsmen and heads of leading media organisations. 2,500 attended the ceremony. Following tradition, foreign guests are not invited. It was attended only by the heads of diplomatic missions accredited in Moscow.

Alongside Dmitriy Medvedev, former President Vladimir Putin also played a central role in the handover of the powers of the head of state. For the time being, he is the only ruler in Russian history to have voluntarily vacated the throne at the height of his power. Apart from those already mentioned, the ceremony was attended by the Chairman of the Constitutional Court, Valeriy Zorkin, who administered the oath to the new president, as well as by the speakers of both chambers of the Federal Assembly - Sergey Mironov and Boris Gryzlov.

Strange as it may seem, the experienced Vladimir Putin, having been in power for more than eight years, was unusually constrained and could not conceal his anxiety. Although Mr. Putin decided independently to end his presidency within the period specified by the constitution, and despite pressure from his circle, this departure was psychologically very difficult for him. It is difficult to step down and pose as "number two", whereas, in fact, you are "number one".

Dmitriy Medvedev, on the contrary, was very calm and appeared quite confident. He even looked taller. Medvedev marched out to applause, as though he had rehearsed many times.

Vladimir Putin's voice faltered during his farewell speech, placing his script on the Russian constitution on the rostrum from which the new president was to take his oath. Dmitriy Medvedev behaved more respectfully towards the country's basic law and found a place on the rostrum for his notes.

While in previous inauguration speeches Vladimir Putin had emphasised the need for public stability and the strengthening of the state, Dmitriy Medvedev began his speech by declaring that he would protect human rights and freedoms as required by the first phrases of the presidential oath. Here are short excerpts from the inauguration speech of the new Russian president: "My most important task is to develop civil and economic freedoms and to create new and wider opportunities for the self-realization of citizens - free and responsible citizens." "Over the last eight years, a powerful basis for economic development and stability has been created in Russia… This is a unique chance which we must use to the maximum for Russia to become one of the best countries in the world. This is our strategy and guideline for many years ahead… I will try to ensure that Russia gains a firm foothold among the world's leaders in technology." "I fully realize how much work still has to be done to ensure that the state is really fair to its citizens…, so that as many people as possible can identify themselves as middle class, receive a high quality education and health services." "I am paying special attention to the fundamental role of the law… We must secure real respect for the law and overcome the legal nihilism that hinders the country's development. I will do everything possible to ensure that the state not only guarantees, but also actually ensures the security of its citizens."

At the age of 42, Dmitriy Medvedev is the youngest Russian leader for the last 100 years. His correct diction, good manners and refinement mark him out as representative of a new generation and leader of a modern order. This is the first Russian leader since Vladimir Ulyanov (Lenin) to have a good university education and professors and academicians as parents, rather than workers and peasants.

It seems that Medvedev has received quite a good inheritance in the post of President. Russia is on the rise. Critical separatist tendencies have been suppressed. The country has paid off its debts and has extensive gold and currency reserves. Standards of welfare are improving. In some ways, the international standing of the Russian Federation has become stronger. However, there are no grounds for complacency yet. The new leader needs to tackle immediately the urgent problem of rising inflation, he should streamline the inflated official apparatus, curb the ubiquitous corruption, reform and strengthen the court system and overcome the steep demographic decline.

On the first day of his presidency, Dmitriy Medvedev issued a number of decrees, the most important of which concerned the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers and the introduction of Vladimir Putin as new head of the Russian government. Literally on the next day, the State Duma approved Vladimir Putin in his new post by an overwhelming majority. Of the parliamentary factions, only the communists voted against him. There is still intrigue about which of the former cabinet members will keep their posts, whom Vladimir Putin will transfer from the Kremlin to the White House, and in what capacity.

It is expected that the White House, which houses the Russian Cabinet of Ministers, will no longer be a technical appendage of the Kremlin and will become an alternative centre of power, with Putin as its head. It is no surprise that many in Russia and abroad are speculating about who will decide state policy and adopt and implement strategic decisions. Some predict that, by making himself the head of "the executive authority" in Russia, Putin will be able to supplant Medvedev, leaving him only ceremonial functions or, for example, foreign policy. According to an opinion poll conducted by the Levada Centre in late April, two thirds of Russians believe that Medvedev will rule under Putin's guardianship. But we should not rule out, a priori, the president and the new Russian prime minister maintaining a partnership which has taken shape over many years of joint work, and rule in concord through constructive interaction.

Time will tell whether this will happen or not. The configuration of the Medvedev-Putin relationship depends very much on how the top bureaucratic apparatus behaves. The careers of most of its top representatives depend on whether they adopt the correct position between Medvedev and Putin. For the time being, Putin's position seems firmer. Almost all the country's top officials are indebted to him for their appointments. But the constitution grants wide powers to the president - to issue decrees and to form and dissolve governments. Power in Russia has always resided in the hands of the master of the Kremlin, regardless of his personal qualities and initial position. For all his refinement and external gentility, Medvedev may become quite tough. It is unlikely that officials have forgotten his February statement about the need to purge the official apparatus. "A post is not a source of income," he said, adding that "officials who use their posts to pump out money will be punished to the full extent of the law. Surgery is necessary in order to bring some especially unbridled personalities to their senses." Nevertheless, analysts do not think that Medvedev will immediately square up to the Kremlin clans which have taken over the most profitable spheres of the economy. He is more likely to restrict himself to reforms at the lowest level (where a wider strata of the population encounter corruption) in order to justify in some way his public promises to suppress corruption.

The reform of Russia's top government is important to Azerbaijan as well, though it is unlikely to have an immediate effect on the nature and dynamic of our bilateral relations. To mutual satisfaction, our relations have developed in recent years, especially in the economic and humanitarian sectors. There are more than 300 companies with Russian capital in Azerbaijan. Russia supplies almost 1,500 different kinds of products to Azerbaijan, and 80 per cent of them are made up of machines, cars, chemical, metal and wood products, construction materials, food and agricultural raw materials. Russia is Azerbaijan's second largest trading partner (after Turkey) by volume of commodity turnover and its leading trading partner for exports. The overall volume of trade turnover is planned to reach 2 billion dollars in 2008 and may double by 2010, due to the dynamic growth of the two countries' economies. It is planned to merge the two countries' electricity networks, establish a North-South railroad through the territory of Azerbaijan and, possibly, to secure Azerbaijan's participation in the reconstruction of the sluice gates on the Volga-Don canal. Programmes in the spheres of education, science, culture and support for the Russian language in Azerbaijan are being successfully implemented.

Unfortunately, Moscow is still not ready to use its influence to solve the Karabakh conflict, curb the aggressive appetite of its "outpost", Armenia, and pave the way for the establishment of peace in the region. Arms supplies and Russia's military-political alliance with the country which has occupied our territories make full cooperation on security matters more difficult. Azerbaijan's independent foreign policy and its independent activity in the energy sectors probably irritate some Moscow circles. However, the financial, economic, political and military strengthening of Azerbaijan is a reality that will have more and more influence on the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus. This cannot be ignored.

As for personal relationships between Ilham Aliyev and Dmitriy Medvedev, they have known each other since Medvedev paid a working visit to Baku as head of the Russian presidential administration in the summer of 2005. Medvedev represented the Russian government and addressed a ceremony at the Bolshoi Theatre to mark the official closure of the Year of Azerbaijan in Russia. We may confidently assume that Aliyev and Medvedev will easily establish productive working, and even personal, relationships. Both leaders are young, belonging to the same generation, are oriented towards progress and modernization and have work experience in the oil and gas sectors which play such an important role in the two countries' economies. What is more, Vladimir Putin, under whom Azerbaijani-Russian relations took a positive turn, remains in the post of Russian prime minister and can provide specific ideas in the interests of our states and peoples.