RELEVANT PARALLELS

"There is no Northern Ireland model of conflict settlement, not least because this conflict has yet to be solved and has just entered a stage of effective management," this point of view can often be heard in Northern Ireland. Indeed, only after 20 difficult years did the first fragile agreement to solve the most protracted European conflict yield any practical result. Only in May last year, did Northern Ireland finally manage to form a "government of people's confidence", in which power is divided between the pro-British Ulster Unionist Party and the anti-British Sinn Fein party - the political wing of the paramilitary Irish Republican Army (IRA).

The conflict in Ireland dates back to the middle of the 12th century, when the first and last English Pope, Adrian IV, issued a papal bull allowing King Henry II of England to annex the neighbouring island to his kingdom. For 850 years the Irish resisted, with variable success, first English and then British interference in Ireland's affairs. The island was repeatedly devastated by wars and uprisings. The 17th century was one of the most brutal, as the majority of the Irish refused to accept the English religious reformation. Only in the northern part of the island, mainly due to the confiscation of fertile land from Catholics and the resettlement there of English, Scottish and Welsh people, did a Protestant community loyal to London emerge.

The two communities in the northern part of Ireland have lived together uneasily for centuries. Suspicion and hostility have dogged their inter-communal relations. In the early 20th century, demands for the independence of Ireland were raised again and caused the island to be divided by confession in 1921. A free Irish state, with a predominantly Irish population, was established (the Republic of Ireland from 1946). At the same time, the north-eastern part of the island, where the Protestant population formed a majority, remained within the United Kingdom.

Conflict broke out again in 1969, when a struggle for civil rights began all over Europe. In Northern Ireland, this struggle took on especially brutal forms and aggravated the confrontation between the two communities, leading to casualties. The British military invasion of Northern Ireland to support the local administration only aggravated the situation.

By that time, each community had its own terrorist organizations, the Catholics - the IRA and the Protestants - the UVF (Ulster Volunteer Force) and the UDA (Ulster Defence Association). This period of Irish history is called "The Troubles". About 3,500 people were killed on both sides during this period.

Meanwhile, the process of integration into Europe and economic growth in Ireland created a favourable atmosphere for a peace process and, in 1985, the governments of Britain and Ireland finally signed an Anglo-Irish agreement, expressing their desire to co-operate towards a common goal - to eliminate the threat from paramilitary groups. (Previously, Britain barred the Republic of Ireland from participating in negotiations in Ulster, regarding the province as its internal affair). Britain recognized the possibility of Irish unification for the first time, "if this is the choice made by the free will of most of the people of Northern Ireland".

The peace talks were very difficult. They collapsed several times and had to be re-started, but in the end they were successful. Thirteen years after the first agreement, the Belfast Peace Deal was signed. It was then confirmed in a referendum held throughout the entire territory of Northern Ireland. (This agreement is also referred to as "The Good Friday Agreement" because it was signed during Easter week). Below are some of the most important provisions of the Belfast Agreement:

- Britain cancels its Act on the administration of Northern Ireland, but Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom as long as this is the will of its own people;

- The Republic of Ireland makes an amendment to its Constitution and gives up its territorial claim to the northern part of the island, accepting that Northern Ireland is legally part of the United Kingdom;

- Both governments recognize the rights of the citizens of Northern Ireland to declare themselves either British or Irish. Anyone can obtain dual citizenship;

- Democratic institutions shall be created in Northern Ireland on the basis of a division of power between the governments of the two communities. Moreover, British-Irish institutions shall be created for the joint participation of both Britain and Ireland in political developments in Northern Ireland within the framework of their powers;

- Inter-government commissions to monitor minority rights shall be created;

- The British government shall develop a new strategy for the economic development of Northern Ireland;

- All paramilitary groups shall disarm in full, after which their members shall be amnestied;

- The British government undertakes to reduce its security forces based in Northern Ireland;

- The Royal Ulster Constabulary, in which Protestants form an absolute majority, shall be dissolved and replaced by a new police force which shall be created on the basis of parity. 

Although almost 10 years have passed since the signing of the Belfast Agreement, there are still many problems in Northern Ireland. First of all, there is a high degree of confessional segregation in education. Belfast remains a divided city. The Catholic and Protestant sectors are divided by the so-called "Peace Line" - a high wall crowned with barbed wire which the city hall is in no hurry to dismantle, because people feel safer with this shield, just in case. Another problem is the employment of former terrorists and members of underground paramilitary groups. The crime rate is very high among this section of the population, which is why the government is trying to involve them in various civil initiatives and NGOs (non-government organizations).

The example of Northern Ireland graphically illustrates how the presence of a political agreement does not necessarily mean the establishment of a stable peace. Much patience and good will is needed to turn fragile accord into lasting trust.

We cannot help drawing parallels with the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. These conflicts are similar, first of all, because they began as conflicts between communities and became conflicts between states. This is the difference between the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict and, say, the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict in which Russia is not officially a party to the conflict.

However, there are also several significant differences between the conflicts in Nagornyy Karabakh and Northern Ireland. For example, the Catholic population of Northern Ireland, insisting on the unification of Ireland, refers to international documents on decolonization. According to a UN declaration, subordinate territories populated by another people and separated from the mother country by a strip of salt water are regarded as colonies and have the right to break away and establish their own state (the "Salt Water" principle). Britain and Ireland are actually separated by salt water, although it is only 12 miles wide. In the case of Nagornyy Karabakh, this international principle does not apply. Moreover, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland form a single, closed geographical area, while Nagornyy Karabakh is geographically integrated into Lowland Karabakh and the rest of Azerbaijan and is separated from Armenia by a barely passable mountain ridge.

But regardless of the differences between these two conflicts, it is always useful to study someone else's experience. Of course, in our case, it is too early to talk about the likelihood of a similar agreement being signed, but it would be good to prepare for the possibility. I, for example, would suggest close study of the possibility of using certain provisions of the Belfast Agreement; first of all, the question of dual citizenship, parity of representation in local government bodies and guarantees of the rights and security of minorities.

The point of the Belfast agreement that is least acceptable to Azerbaijan is the possibility of holding a referendum on the unification of Ireland. Britain agreed to include this point in the agreement, because Protestants form a majority in Ulster and will definitely vote in a referendum to keep Northern Ireland a part of the United Kingdom. In Nagornyy Karabakh, on the contrary, most of the population is Armenian, and the outcome of the voting is easy to predict. In view of the process of integration going on in Europe, there seems to be little point in holding such a referendum in Europe, for any resident of Belfast who has a driving licence can easily travel to any place in Ireland, indeed in the whole European Union. As for Armenia and Azerbaijan, no-one is going to let them into the EU in the near future, which is why it is necessary to use other measures, firstly economic, in order to interest the Armenians of Nagornyy Karabakh in integration into the rest of Azerbaijan.

The example of Northern Ireland also shows clearly that uncompromising hostility, no matter how long and how brutal, will end sooner or later. In this regard, it is worth noting the words of Ian Paisley, the leader of the Protestant community in Northern Ireland and formerly one of the staunchest opponents of agreement with Irish nationalists: "Our justified indignation with all the horrors and tragedies of the past years should not become an obstacle to the building of a good and stable future. Looking to the future, we should never forget those who experienced hardship and suffering in the dark years of our history. In the process of building a wonderful and peaceful future, we should thank them first of all."

Of course, Northern Ireland is not the only experience of a successful solution of a conflict on the basis of international law. We can also cite South Tyrol, the Aland Isles and other formerly conflicted but now prosperous regions. Let's hope that Nagornyy Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan will become another example of the successful settlement of a territorial conflict for the benefit of its population and of the region as a whole.