GUAM SETS THE TONE

The international conference "A Fundamental Basis for the Settlement of Conflicts in GUAM States", which was held recently in the Azerbaijani capital, was a business, rather than a promotional, forum. Although the world media is in no hurry to recognize its significance, this conference will probably be the one to define the disposition of forces in the post-Soviet area for the next few years. We are principally talking about the Caspian and Black Sea regions, which are littered with so-called frozen conflicts.

The leitmotif of the conference was outlined by Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov. "The territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova must definitely be secured. Baku is convinced that such an approach will bring about a swift resolution of the conflicts," said Mammadyarov, adding that conflict settlement has been discussed repeatedly by international organizations, including GUAM. The Azerbaijani foreign minister added that "the application of double standards to the settlement of conflicts generates distrust".

The format of discussions - "working tables" specially allocated for the press, with maximum openness and high level participants - was noticeably different from Soviet and post-Soviet traditions.

"This conference was an unusual forum which facilitated political discussion between countries facing similar problems. We managed to garner the whole world's experience of settling conflicts emerging from crises. This conference provided an opportunity to let our counterparts know that the desire to settle a conflict by peaceful means cannot be abused and dragged out endlessly," Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov said, while summarizing the discussions in Baku.

He also said that the GUAM countries "will actively promote the results of the conference at international level". According to Azimov, "the GUAM countries are planning to draw up a resolution on the conflicts in their territories for debate by the UN". "The draft resolution is still on the UN agenda. We only have to submit it for consideration and put it to a vote. This will happen at some stage," the deputy foreign minister said.

In Azimov's opinion, Azerbaijan has already taken a first step in this direction, having secured the adoption of the resolution "On the situation in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan", and this provides a basis for proposing a resolution for debate by the UN on the frozen conflicts in GUAM. "This will also strengthen the political will of our partners," said the diplomat confidently.

In turn, Georgian Deputy Minister of State for Conflict Settlement Dmitri Manjavidze pointed out that the GUAM countries have sufficient resources to solve their problems: "It would be better if the parties we are negotiating with realized that we are not negotiating about dialogue, but about concrete steps. We do not need to hold discussions on the form of negotiations. The legal resource we will use is the right to the indivisibility and sovereignty of territories. We are ready to negotiate until the last decisive moment."

Indeed, you cannot help but notice that all member states of GUAM encounter manifestations of separatism in their territories in one form or another. For example, Russia is openly trying to annex the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it is inciting separatism in Moldova's Dniester region and is giving military support to Armenia, a country that still holds Azerbaijan's Nagornyy Karabakh. Meanwhile, Moscow's constant attempts to inflame separatism in Crimea and Donbass in response to Ukraine's rapprochement with the West can only force Kiev to at least follow closely the situation in other states.

The Baku conference coincided with an upsurge in tensions in frozen conflict zones. The instruction by Russian President Vladimir Putin to provide specific aid to the population of Georgia's rebellious regions was not known to the wider public when the forum was in progress; however, parliamentary hearings on the "unrecognized republics" had already taken place in the Russian State Duma. Moreover, the presidential elections in Armenia ended in victory for Serzh Sarkisyan, an accomplice in the Xocali genocide and, on 1-2 March, Armenian voters learned from direct, tragic experience the basis upon which Armenia's policy is built. It was exactly at this time that tensions soared on the front line. However, on 14 March the UN General Assembly issued a resolution on the situation in the occupied territories and then a new tone emerged in the dialogue between Baku and the OSCE Minsk Group.

The settlement of conflicts in their territories is certainly an important task for GUAM countries, but it is not the only task. For example, GUAM Secretary-General Valeri Chechelashvili said that "our purpose is not to expand GUAM but, at the same time, the Vilnius declaration of our organization says that our doors are open to everyone. Our purpose is to increase the authority of our organization as a participant in world developments." GUAM is actively developing its relations with Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the USA and Japan. The "energy component" of the member countries of the organization arouses growing interest in Europe, especially now that Moscow has demonstrated its readiness to use the "pipeline weapon". At the same time, we should not forget that it is the disposition of forces in the region between the Caspian and Black seas which will clarify for Europe the possibility of physical contact with Central Asian states and their colossal resources and markets. 

For this reason, most analysts believe that the Baku conference outlined new political realities in the post-Soviet area, in which the new "centre of power" - GUAM - is asserting itself more and more confidently. Specifically, the Turkish newspaper Aksam says: "After the break-up of the Soviet Union, the new independent republics situated in the territory of Eastern Europe, Southern Europe (the Balkans) and on the Black Sea coast have begun to pursue a policy of alienation from Moscow on the one hand and, on the other, a policy of rapid integration into the European Union - thanks to which these countries have managed to ensure political and economic development - and into the North Atlantic alliance NATO, which can guarantee 'an umbrella of security' for the new states." For our part, we should add that the member countries of GUAM realise, at a time when Russia is using separatist levers and territorial claims against them, that they are unlikely to feel comfortable or confident within the security system created by Moscow. And they have created an alternative.

"Rephrasing a well-known literary aphorism, I would like to say that rumours about the break-up of GUAM are slightly exaggerated," Novosti Azerbaijan quotes the GUAM secretary-general as saying. Indeed, since the moment representatives of the four republics of the Black Sea region (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) laid the foundations of their organization during a meeting on the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, in Vienna in May 1996 and  followed up at a meeting during the Council of Europe summit in Strasbourg on 10 October 1997 by establishing the political-consultative forum GUAM and a new regional organization, the mass media have been full of statements that it is a "stillborn child" with no future and is not destined to become an "operational" organization. When Uzbekistan, a member of the organization from 1999, officially quit GUAM on 5 May 2005, the predictions regained momentum.

Predicting the imminent break-up of GUAM from time to time, Moscow analysts engage in wishful thinking. GUAM is confidently establishing itself as a real force in the CIS area, because the member countries of the organization have common interests, both short-term and long-term, which coincide with the interests of many influential "players" in the international arena.