THE DAMASCUS CONFERENCE BOYCOTTED

The 20th summit of the League of Arab States (LAS), held in Damascus on 29-30 March, was rightly called "a summit of Arab conflicts". The summit was attended by only 11 of the 22 leaders of the regional community and those 11 were not the "heavyweight" countries of the Arab world. For example, Saudi Arabia did not even send its foreign minister to Damascus - the country was represented by its permanent ambassador to the LAS. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak also refused to go to Damascus, sending Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu Al-Gheit instead. Nor did King Abdullah II of Jordan or eight other Arab heads of state go to Syria.

The main reason for the actual boycott of the Damascus conference was that the host country Syria continues to interfere in the internal affairs of neighbouring Lebanon, which was not represented at the summit at all. Lebanon has been unable to elect a leader for several months because the opposition is boycotting the elections. The elections have been postponed 17 times (the latest from 25 March to 22 April).

The largest opposition party in the Lebanese parliament is the Shi'a group of Hezbollah, which is on the list of terrorist organizations in the West. Since its supporters want to see their leader as head of state, a critical situation has developed in which the opposition has enough power to block the elections, but not enough to win them. 

Lebanon's previous president, Emile Lahoud, pursued a pro-Syrian policy, but his term expired in November last year. Now the country's current prime minister, Fu'ad Sanyurah, who is regarded as a pro-Western leader, says that the main reason for the domestic political crisis is the negative influence of Syria. Indeed, it is no secret that Hezbollah is supported by Damascus, which is why Lebanese security agencies do not question their involvement in the murders of anti-Syrian Lebanese politicians, including Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri in 2005. As a result, Syria has been drawing more criticism recently and the last LAS summit showed that it comes from its Arab neighbours as well as from Western states. Syria is accused of supporting Hezbollah and pursuing an aggressive policy against Israel, as well as supporting the Palestinian organization Hamas. Of course, it is clear that Damascus is not strong enough to undertake such large-scale activity on its own, which is why Iran is believed to be the main actor here.

Wahid Abdel Megid of the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo told the BBC that currently, "there are two axes in the Arab world - Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah on the one hand, and all the rest on the other". At the same time, Abdel Megid said that "the Syrian axis is quite reasonable, has clear goals and is well-organized". Accusing Washington of trying to split the Arab world, Damascus itself is denying any idea that the meeting in Damascus was held "under the protection of Tehran".

Meanwhile, leading Arab states do not hide their irritation with Iranian-Syrian friendship, especially against the background of Tehran's pursuit of regional leadership. For this reason, during the LAS summit, the Syrian directive "to strengthen Arab unity" failed to deceive anyone. When the meeting in Damascus was drawing to a close, Abdullah II, who was meeting Condoleezza Rice in Amman, made a tough statement about Syria's interference in Lebanon's affairs.

In this context, we should also note a curious detail - the Arab countries supported the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in their territorial disputes with Iran, although they called for a legal and peaceful solution to all problems. We are talking about three islands - Abu-Musa, Great Tonb and Small Tonb in the Persian Gulf, which are currently controlled by Tehran but which are claimed by the UAE. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has already described this as interference in his country's internal affairs. Returning to Syria's support for the Palestinian faction Hamas, we cannot ignore the main problem of the Arab world - the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The member countries of the LAS together are unable to secure a solution to this conflict.

The Palestinian Authority itself has been split in two by rival factions - Hamas, which is believed to be supported by Iran and Syria and does not recognize Israel's right to exist, and Fatah which has agreed to hold peace talks with Israel.

It is notable that several days before the Damascus summit, Yemen's President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, decided to mediate a solution to the Middle East conflict, inviting representatives of the two rival Palestinian factions to Sana'a. Of course, lower-level delegations arrived in Sana'a and signed another meaningless agreement on the need for reconciliation. But since the sides take completely different positions, it is impossible to talk about peace at the moment. As a result, there was nothing to discuss in Damascus. The dissatisfaction of Arab states is understandable anyway. LAS chairman Amr Musa said earlier that the leadership of the organization had a critical attitude towards the course of the negotiations which started after the peace conference in Annapolis in November 2007.

It must be remembered that, in 2002, Arab states developed their own so-called "Saudi plan". However, the "roadmap" was on the agenda at the time, providing for a stage-by-stage solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict and it was being pushed by the international quartet of the USA, the EU, the UN and Russia, which is why that document was unsuccessful. According to the "Saudi plan", the Arab states will recognize Israel in exchange for a return to the borders of 1967, a "fair solution" to the problem of Palestinian refugees and their descendants, as well as the recognition of an independent Palestinian state with its capital in Eastern Jerusalem. If all these conditions are met, the conflict will end and the LAS countries will establish normal relations with Israel. According to Amr Musa, the foreign ministers of Arab states will hold a special session in Cairo, later, in order to "rethink their peace strategy".

Meanwhile it is reported that, in the recent period, the Syrians have increased considerably the military capability of their troops along the Lebanese border. Hezbollah is also preparing for a possible conflict with Israel, strengthening its positions in southern Lebanon and preparing missiles and missile installations north of the Litani River.

It is natural that the summit also discussed the situation in Iraq. Whether by coincidence or not, on 25 March, several days before the meeting in Damascus, the Iraqi army, supported by US troops, launched a military operation near Iraq's "oil gateway" Basra against the "Mahdi Army" - supporters of the radical Shi'a politician Muqtada As-Sadr, who are believed to be responsible for numerous sectarian killings. At the same time fighting began in Baghdad and a number of other cities, as a result of which almost 460 people fell victim. Some observers say that, in fact, the reason for the fighting in Basra was to establish which of the Shi'a majority factions ruling Iraq will establish control over this strategic city. Incidentally, it is alleged that the leader of the "Mahdi Army", As-Sadr, maintains close links with Iran. Clearly, we have something to think about here.

In connection with events in Basra and Baghdad, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki was replaced by Vice-President Adel Abdel-Mahdi at the Damascus summit. He expressed the dissatisfaction of the Iraqi delegation with the text of the final Damascus declaration. Abdel-Mahdi was outraged that "the more clearly formulated support of the Arab community for the Iraqi authorities and their successful war on terror" had disappeared from the document. The vice-president also threatened to leave the summit if Iraqi proposals were not considered. Specifically, the final declaration adopted by the summit stresses the need to make a distinction between terrorism and "people's right to fight occupation". In general, during the Damascus summit, the LAS called for an international conference under the aegis of the UN to discuss the problem of terrorism.

It must be noted that the LAS summit in Damascus supported Russia's proposal to hold a peace conference on Middle Eastern problems in Moscow. The idea was put forward by President Vladimir Putin in 2005. One of the points in the final document was devoted to the Russian initiative. The Kremlin is clearly trying to make up lost ground in the Middle East. It may be that Moscow really does have a chance of a say in the current Middle East disputes, as it maintains quite good relations with Syria and Iran. 

In his address in Damascus, Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, despite the mixed responses to his personality, posed quite an important question: "The Arabs do not have anything: no single currency, no single economy, no single market, only endless quarrels. What awaits us?" In turn, LAS Secretary-General Amr Musa said that the Arab world is "experiencing a deep split and has to do a lot of work to establish relationships."

Indeed, what awaits the Arab world? The "abyss" that separates the two axes which Wahid Abdel Megid referred to is becoming wider and wider…