CASPIAN CROSSROADS

Being on opposite coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have also been "on the opposite sides of the barricades" for some time. Diplomatic relations between the two states, which were heading downwards at the turn of the century, are now gaining momentum. Another round of Azerbaijani-Turkmen consultations, on a wide range of issues, was held in Baku in March and provided another graphic example of the political will of the two heads of state to strengthen bilateral relations. Political experts have already called the Baku meeting a key stage in forging a promising regional alliance.

Several years after the severance of diplomatic relations, Baku and Ashgabat amassed a whole range of disputes and movement only became possible after a change in the political line from Turkmenistan. With the arrival on the scene of Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov, the country began to emerge from its isolation from the surrounding world and to follow a policy of securing comprehensive political relations. On the one hand, the restoration of ties with Baku is the direct result of such an approach and, on the other, in the current situation the South Caucasus corridor is Turkmenistan's only access to Europe for its potential energy projects. Brussels and Washington pin great hopes on such a partnership with Turkmenistan, while Ashgabat is responding to them, but has still not given a clear, affirmative answer.

The first step

So let's return to Azerbaijani-Turkmen relations. As we said above, the two countries have amassed a whole number of unsolved and interrelated issues. The most important thing is to start a constructive dialogue - the whole jumble can be disentangled if you loosen just one knot.

If we remember that the formal reason for the late Turkmenbashi "taking offence" was a conflict over the amount of Baku's debt to Ashgabat, this issue can probably be regarded as the key stumbling block to constructive dialogue.

The debt accumulated mainly due to Turkmen gas supplies. In the early 1990s, Azerbaijan imported "blue fuel" from Turkmenistan, but could not pay immediately. Then Baku disagreed with the method of calculating interest rates and proposed a mutually beneficial solution to the schedule of debt payment. The intractability and principled obstinacy of the two sides, which deteriorated due to the dispute over the delineation of oil fields, aggravated the situation even more. This was described as a "weighty" reason for Saparmurat Niyazov's decision to recall his diplomatic mission from Baku in 2001. After solving the problem of the state debt, the two countries will enter a new stage in their relations, which might bring their positions closer on important regional energy projects. Baku took the first step, expressing beforehand its readiness to pay off the debt before starting a dialogue. 

A logical end to the relatively brief and, perhaps, uncomplicated negotiations on the plan and schedule of repayment was the signing of the relevant document in Baku in early March. Two delegations, led by Turkmen Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov and Deputy Prime Minister Khydyr Saparliyev, visited the Azerbaijani capital in order to sign this agreement and continue the dialogue between the two countries' governments which had begun in 2007. The press secretary of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, Xazar Ibrahim, said that the tete-a-tete meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, Elmar Mammadyarov and Rashid Meredov, discussed a wide range of bilateral political, regional and interdepartmental relations and expressed the two states' attitude towards the major energy projects of our region.

At the Cabinet of Ministers they signed an agreement between the governments of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan on the settlement of debts and financial requirements. The document was signed by First Deputy Prime Minister Yaqub Eyyubov and Turkmen Deputy Prime Minister Khydyr Saparliyev.

Eyyubov stressed that the two heads of state had set themselves the task of preparing the signing of this agreement. To this end, experts had carried out a great deal of work. Thanks to compromises and respect for each other's position, an issue that had lain unresolved for so long was finally solved.

"The Azerbaijani economy is developing rapidly, and now we have no debts to any other country," Eyyubov stressed.

In turn, Saparliyev expressed hope for the strengthening of economic and humanitarian cooperation between the two countries. Turkmen sources write that in Baku the two sides also discussed their readiness to hold a second session of the inter-government economic commission. Incidentally, this issue was at the centre of a Turkmen government session held on 3 March.

The fundamental agreement on debts will "clear the way" for the solving of important and even more fundamental issues from a geo-strategic point of view, says Baku. One of them is probably the problem of the legal status of the Caspian Sea, the dispute over the Kapaz border deposit and the project to construct a trans-Caspian pipeline.

This project, which provides for the transportation of Central Asian gas to the European market through the South Caucasus corridor, is within the sphere of interests of both Washington and Brussels. In fact, the fate of the ambitious and key European project, Nabucco, depends on this pipeline and its being filled by the "blue fuel" of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

Roads converge in Azerbaijan

Of course, it is precisely the energy factor that dominates the West's interested involvement in Caspian regional diplomacy. Baku, which is the only guaranteed ally of the EU and USA, should now help its partners to involve new participants, specifically Turkmenistan, in the project.

It is no surprise that the mission of the Turkmen deputy prime ministers in Baku overlapped with a visit to the region by the US State Department Energy Coordinator for Europe and Eurasia, Steven Mann. His visit to Baku and Ashgabat preceded the Baku round of Azerbaijani-Turkmen negotiations.

The negotiations in both capitals focused on one issue, of course: it is necessary to consolidate the interests of countries exporting and transporting Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas, its buyers, as well as the creditors in the construction of the future trans-Caspian gas pipeline. As expected, the White House will play its role as conductor, and Mann has been authorized to bring this "concert" to its conclusion.

However, these plans are hindered by the ban that the European Parliament has imposed on trading relations between the European Union and Turkmenistan because of human rights violations in that country. This "hillock" has to be bypassed diplomatically without hurting the interests and pride of the EU. Stage-by-stage "bypassing" is impossible without third countries. And Azerbaijan comes to the foreground again here, because it is impossible to do this without Azerbaijan. 

The publication Vremya Novostey writes that instead of signing some "protocol of intent" between Ashgabat and Baku on the construction of the trans-Caspian pipeline, they are discussing step-by-step bilateral actions. It may begin with the signing of an agreement between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, which may then be joined by Kazakhstan and Turkey. And this chain will become a well-organized pivot holding everything together in the transformation of bilateral and multilateral agreements into a trans-national consortium.

This means that Azerbaijan plays an important role in establishing strategic relations between the West and Turkmenistan. For this reason, the interests of Brussels and Washington in the Caspian region also depend largely on the transparency and reliability of Azerbaijani-Turkmen relations.