DANGEROUS ALLY

Back at the dawn of the establishment of the Collective Rapid Reac-tion Force of the Collective Security Trea-ty (CSTO CRRF), Armenia was very lukewarm about it. Things reached the point where the president of that country simply ignored summits where he was required to give a clear answer concerning his country's participation in the establishment of the CRRF.

However, the situation seems to have changed now, and Armenia no longer stages demarches. However, it is an open question whether its CSTO partners should be happy about this or not.

The CSTO CRRF in Tajikistan have started practising concerted actions of units and exercising practical skills with elements of live firing on a simulated enemy, RIA Novosti reported. The manoeuvres near the Tajik-Afghan border involved a total of more than 2,000 soldiers and more than 150 pieces of hardware from CSTO CRRF troop contingents - from Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakh-stan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. CSTO CRRF includes one battalion from the Armenian Armed Forces.

One could certainly ask how the Armenian soldiers were transferred to Tajikistan. As is known, Armenia has no land communication with other CSTO partners. Nor does it actually have reliable "military aerial" communication with them. Yes, Armenia and Russia have air communication, but Armenian warplanes flying through Azerbaijan and Georgia's airspace appears unlikely. There is the theory that the Armenian paratroopers were transferred to Tajikistan through Iran's airspace. Finally, there is the theory that they flew there on a civilian aircraft. Another question is whether it will be possible to quickly transfer troops from Armenia to Tajikistan in the event of a real crisis?

There is a rule in operation in NATO: membership of this alliance can only be given to a country that has a long border with another country that is a member of the alliance, or if it has access to open sea. This is a fairly logical term for a military alliance. However, Armenia does not have access to a sea, nor does it have borders with CSTO countries. In the event of real war, it could well end up isolated from its partners. The most dangerous thing is that it is Armenia that could, with the highest probability, provoke war in the region. Armenia's leadership constantly makes territorial claims on neighbouring countries, except for, maybe, Iran.

Armenia continues to occupy 20 per cent of Azerbaijan's territory and carries out local provocations at the frontline with frightening regularity. Armenia is not at war with Georgia but, as media have reported many times, Armenia makes territorial claims on Georgia's Javakheti and expresses acute dissatisfaction with Georgia's close cooperation with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Finally, Armenia makes territorial claims on Turkey, which is a NATO member. Clear proof of this is the image on Armenia's coat of arms of Agridag, or, if you will, Ararat, which is located in Turkey. Yerevan has never officially recognized the Treaty of Kars, which set the current border between Turkey and Armenia. Back in 1991, Turkey was the first to recognize the independence of all former Soviet republics after the collapse of the USSR. It expressed concern that Armenia could make territorial claims on it, but the world tried not to notice it. However, even after the launch of "football diplomacy", Armenia did not say it was willing to recognize its borders with Turkey.

Finally, all this abundance of conflicts along Armenia's borders is combined with its unjustified confidence that its CSTO partners, primarily Russia, are "morally indebted" to Armenia. Yerevan hopes that CSTO will help it in the eventuality of Azerbaijan deciding to use force to liberate its occupied territories. And yet for some reason they forget that the statute of the CSTO prescribes the CSTO to provide help in case of foreign aggression. However, the Azerbaijani leadership has repeatedly stated that it makes no claims on anyone's territory but reserves the right to conduct an anti-terrorist operation in its internationally recognized territory against extremist separatist armed groups in Nagornyy Karabakh. This means that Azerbaijan will not provide a legal reason for CSTO forces to be involved to help Armenia.

However, Armenian wheeler-dealers have good experience in pushing their defenders towards more decisive actions by means of provoking a conflict, something that they did back at the end of the 19th century. However it may be, William L. Langer's book "The Diplomacy of Imperialism" pointed out: "In 1890, one of the revolutionaries told Dr. Hamlin, the founder of Robert College, that Hunchak bands would 'watch their opportunity to kill Turks and Kurds, set fire to their villages, and then make their escape into the mountains. The enraged Moslems will fall upon the defenceless Armenians and slaughter them with such barbarity that Russia will enter in the name of humanity and Christian civilisation and take possession." "When the horrified missionary denounced the scheme as atrocious and infernal beyond anything ever known, he received this reply: 'It appears so to you, no doubt; but we Armenians have determined to be free. Europe listened to Bulgarian horrors and made Bulgaria free. She will listen to our cry when it goes up in the shrieks and blood of millions of women and children. We are desperate. We shall do it."

Therefore, the probability that as a result of Armenia's membership the Collective Security Treaty Organi-zation will be drawn into war against Turkey or Azerbaijan or Georgia is frighteningly high. This is proof too serious that Armenia is turning from an ally into a threat to collective security.