FROM NUCLEAR CONFRONTATION TO PEACEFUL DIALOGUE

In recent decades, South Asia has become a key region in terms of global security. The main developments in this process occur on the frontline of confrontation between Pakistan and India. The fifty year-old conflict between Delhi and Islamabad is a complex tangle of problems which are organically linked by many to political collision in the present-day world order. Terrorism and social problems against a backdrop of a grand-scale demographic explosion, as well as the military confrontation between these two nuclear powers, has become the second (after the USSR and USA) hotbed of nuclear deterrence in history - all these factors illustrate the drama of the situation in South Asia, a situation in which it is it is quite difficult to discern prospects for a peaceful outcome. Nonetheless, current developments in the region inspire hope that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Strategic agreement

The confrontation on the subcontinent began more than 50 years ago, when the predominantly Muslim-populated Pakistan split away during the process of India's liberation from British colonialism. Mass clashes immediately followed the division. The biggest "bone of contention" was Kashmir. India and Pakistan have twice been at war over the region: from 1947-1948 and again in 1965. At present, about one third of Kashmir's territory is under Pakistani control, while the rest is Indian territory.

The most serious of the Indo-Pakistani wars broke out in 1971. Islamabad's defeat resulted in the establishment, in East Pakistan, of a new independent state, Bangladesh. India and Pakistan then entered a new phase in their relations, the phase of nuclear confrontation.

India was first to begin developing its own nuclear weapons: testing took place in the Rajasthan desert in 1974. A few years later, Pakistan, too, launched a nuclear programme. In 1998, both states conducted underground nuclear tests and showed off their ballistic missiles to each other. Both India and Pakistan refused to sign the non-proliferation treaty. In the opinion of the former, the document entitles only a small group of "privileged" countries to possess nuclear weapons, and Islamabad claims that its development of a nuclear arsenal depends entirely on actions taken by Delhi.

Both countries use their nuclear weapons to achieve major foreign political goals. India aspires to the status of a great power and membership of the UN Security Council, to attain hegemony in South Asia for the strategic containment of Pakistan and China, and to reduce US influence in the Indian Ocean zone. As for Pakistan, its nuclear arsenal serves as a guarantee that India will not launch a war against it and it also helps the country to become the leading power of the Muslim world.

So, the almost simultaneous establishment of India and Pakistan as "illegal nuclear powers" confronted South Asia with a new threat. Given the extremely high density of population and the practical absence of protection for the population from the effects of weapons of mass destruction, even one medium-size nuclear explosion could result in hundreds of thousands of casualties.

The leaders of the two states realize the huge risks in this situation. In 2004, India and Pakistan began comprehensive talks. But it was only recently, a little more than one month ago, that the two sides actually took a strategic step towards each other. They signed an agreement on the exchange of security information, which paves the way for regular contacts between the Indian Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses and Pakistan's Institute of Strategic Studies.

However, there is one issue which worries everyone in the region: the possibility that extremists might gain access to nuclear weapons. This threat has become more evident since the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto.

"Sectaries manipulate Islam"

The tragedy in Rawalpindi, for which the international terrorist network Al-Qa'ida claimed responsibility, has rendered the biggest question the most pressing one, too: will Pakistan, which came to the brink of civil war after the death of the most popular opposition politician, retain its control over its nuclear weapons?  The terrorists' scenario probably envisages the creation of chaos to push their way to power in the only Muslim country to possess nuclear weapons. This puts Islamabad and the entire international community to a very tough test; without exaggeration, the destiny of global security rests upon the outcome.

Only one course of action can prevent such an undesirable train of events: the Pakistani authorities should strengthen political and economic state institutions and curb all types of activities by the numerous extremist and terrorist organizations which still operate in the country. There are clear signs that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, who came to power after the 1999 coup, realizes the importance of these objectives. As early as 2002, in the throes of the last Indo-Pakistani crisis, which was caused by an attack by five gunmen on the Parliament building in Delhi, General Musharraf said that the "sectarians manipulate Islam, the main foundation of Pakistan."  At roughly the same time, he outlawed the radical organizations Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-i-Taiba and announced reforms to religious and secondary education to curb the influence of so-called Islamists in those areas.

Despite this, Musharraf's opponents from the democratic camp accuse him of offering continuing support to the Taliban, although he did join the US-led international anti-terrorist coalition after the 11 September tragedy. Pakistani experts attribute this to the fact that a number of influential officials among Musharraf's entourage are in business partnerships with extremists.

However, Hour H for all Pakistani politicians arrived with the universal parliamentary elections of 18 February. The main intrigue of the elections centred on the question of whether or not Musharraf would agree to cooperate with the democratic opposition to prevent the radicals from coming to power (even at the expense of his own political influence) and whether he would use his administrative resources, up to rigging the election, to maintain the pre-election balance of political power in Pakistan, in which he had played an all but absolute role.

Democracy rising from the ashes

The parliamentary elections produced results whose importance are hard to overestimate, especially as the election campaign unfolded against the backdrop of numerous terrorist acts which, together with the deaths of ordinary citizens, claimed the lives of a number of well-known politicians. Represen-tatives of 49 different political parties vied for Parliamentary seats. The nation was to elect 272 deputies to the National Assembly (the lower chamber of Parliament has 342 seats, of which 60 are reserved for women and 10 for representatives of religious minorities) and 577 deputies to provincial parliaments.

The elections ended in landslide victory for the secular opposition and defeat for the forces which tend toward the Islamists. The largest number of votes went to the Pakistan People's Party which, after Benazir Bhutto's death, is headed by her husband Asif Ali Zardari. That party won 84 seats in Parliament. Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) was second with 63 seats.  And the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) was third with 36 seats. As winners, the People's Party announced that they wanted to form a government of national unity with the participation of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Already, on election day, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf had said that he would work "hand in hand" with the country's new government regardless of which party won the universal elections.  After the vote, the PML-Q accepted defeat immediately. Its leader, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, said that the party accepted the election results "with an open heart," and that its deputies were "ready to sit on the opposition seats."

Of course, the possibility cannot be ruled out that, having at its disposal two thirds of the seats, the former opposition might take the opportunity to start an impeachment of the incumbent president. But President Musharraf seems confident of his immunity. His confidence lies not only in his loyal forces, but also in the support of the US which, in large part, swayed Musharraf towards democratic changes in the country. Washington considers Musharraf the only politician able to tackle the threat of an Islamist accession to power in the country.

Be that as it may, at this decisive moment in Pakistani history, President Musharraf demonstrated responsibility in not yielding to the temptation to prevent democrats from coming to power at all costs, while the secular opposition demonstrated its willingness to unite. The main task of the newly formed parliament and the entire governmental system of Pakistan in the new political situation is to determine a way of fighting the terrorists and eliminating even the remotest chance of their getting hold of the nuclear arsenal.

A opportunity which cannot be missed

The victory of the democratic forces in Pakistan and the lack of support for the extremists make the success of the peace process and, first and foremost, further d?tente in relations between Delhi and Islamabad more likely. At least there is hope that the confrontation in South Asia will not deteriorate, even if the antagonism between the two nuclear regional powers is not formally resolved, and will not hinder the promotion of bilateral ties. A number of common interests in the fields of security, trade, the economy, energy, humanitarian cooperation and the fight against drug trafficking and contraband also make peaceful dialogue between India and Pakistan more likely.  The establishment of the free trade zone in South Asia, which both Pakistan and India supported, should also promote processes of integration.

Azerbaijan, which maintains good relations with the countries in the region, is also interested in the South Asian peace process. This is particularly true about Pakistan, one of the closest allies of Azerbaijan in the international arena. Baku appreciates highly Islamabad's just position on the regulation of Karabakh in the international arena, demanding the immediate and unconditional liberation of the occupied territories by Armenia. A strengthening of stability in Pakistan, which is important for the entire South Asian region, is a guarantee of further development in relations between our countries towards a strategic partnership.