GOVERNMENT IN TANDEM

The 2 March presidential elections in Russia yielded no surprises. As expected, the winner was First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev, who was supported by the incumbent head of state, Vladimir Putin. According to the official returns announced by the Russian Central Electoral Commission, Medvedev gained 70.23 per cent of votes. Communist leader Gennadiy Zyuganov was supported by 17.76 per cent of voters. LDPR candidate Vladimir Zhirinovskiy gained 9.37 per cent and Democratic Party leader Andrey Bogdanov 1.29 per cent. Medvedev was supported by 52.5 million, Zyuganov by more than 13 million, Zhirinovskiy by almost 7 million and Bogdanov - by about one million Russian voters.

Although observers from the opposition, and principally the communists, noted numerous violations (ballot stuffing, machinations with absentee ballots and so on), in general the elections reflect the will of the Russian people. At the same time, international observers drew attention not so much to violations in electoral procedures as to the absence of real competition in the elections. For example, in absolute terms Medvedev gained almost one million votes more than Vladimir Putin did four years ago, while in percentage terms the support received by Medvedev did not reach the record levels of an outgoing president who has been declared a "national hero".

Elections are certainly important for the legitimacy of the government, but the most intriguing question is still to be answered. The fact is that a new era is beginning in Russia with the traditional single supreme power being divided for the first time. There is much speculation about who will make the decisions and how, once Medvedev moves into the presidential residency in the Kremlin and Putin moves into the prime ministerial office. Most analysts believe that Putin will initially maintain his grip on the levers of power and have the last say on important decisions. This is due not solely to the weakness of new president, Dmitriy Medvedev. The reason is that, for the time being, he does not have a political base and is indebted to Putin for his advancement.

Putin constructed the current vertical hierarchy of power in Russia to suit his own requirements. Medvedev cannot just inherit it as an attribute of the presidency and has to either develop his own system or fill the existing one with his own supporters. This has not happened yet (if this is the intention), and Medvedev can only be driven by Putin. According to The Wall Street Journal, Putin's people in the intelligence and law-enforcement agencies will foil any attempt to reconsider important decisions already taken, to open up political life or to change the current state of relations with the West.

According to a number of media reports, Medvedev has close relatives living in the USA and he is always more than happy to visit Western countries on family holidays. Medvedev is an intelligent man, he does not have close connections with the intelligence service and he likes rock music and the Internet. For this reason, he is often described as a pro-Western liberal. At the same time, the media are insistently promoting the idea that Medvedev is a tougher and much more ambitious person than he may seem. Time will show whether this is true or not, but the personal qualities of the new Russian president are not the determining factor right now. The well-known US analyst and politician, Zbigniew Brzezinski, said in a recent interview with Radio Ekho Moskvy: "I don't think that it matters how liberal Medvedev is. It matters who will be making the key decisions in the near future. I think the answer to this question is absolutely clear. This will be a person named Mr Putin, not Mr Medvedev." At the same time, "we may suppose that, in the course of time, Medvedev will acquire some political legitimacy, may knock together a group of people totally loyal to him and then the balance of power between Medvedev and Putin will begin to change. But I don't think that this will happen very soon," he said.

Indeed, the situation surrounding the formation of the governmental tandem of Medvedev and Putin is unique. It has no precedent in Russia's past. When, in 1999, Yeltsin handed over the reins of power to Vladimir Putin, he laid down a number of specific conditions and Putin kept his promises religiously. During his first term in office, he retained Yeltsin's people in key positions. Mikhail Kasyanov remained prime minister, while the presidential administration was headed by Aleksandr Voloshin. Yeltsin himself spent his time in his country house in comfort and ease, trying to obtain the necessary treatment. But now the situation is completely different - Putin is not going anywhere, he intends to run the country together with his successor and henchman Medvedev. As a result, correspondents and politicians are wondering whether this set-up will be stable and effective and in which direction Putin-Medvedev will lead the country.

In terms of a model of development, there are assumptions that an attempt is likely to be made to direct Russia along the path taken by Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia, i.e. a model of authoritarian modernization will be implemented by means of state-owned or state-funded mega-corporations with minimum political competition. However, apart from general political-ideological issues, in Russia there are the extremely painful and complex issues of reforms to the pension system and the collapsing housing economy. Radical action is also necessary to overcome the continuing demographic decline and depopulation of the gigantic territory of Siberia and the Far East.

It is clear that significant reshuffles will take place soon. Everyone is wondering whether influential officials in the previous administration (Sobyanin, Surkov, Sechin, Ivanov, etc.) will keep their posts in the Kremlin or whether they will move into the "White House", together with Putin. Rumours have it that Medvedev has an open aversion to many of these people. It is no surprise that there are rumours going round Moscow that Aleksandr Voloshin, who is very experienced in administrative games, will soon return to the presidential administration.

The question is which of the ministers and deputy prime ministers will keep his post. There is special interest in the law-enforcement ministries. Who will head them: will they remain subordinate only to the president or will Putin oversee their work as prime minister? To this end, it would only be necessary to make changes to the federal constitutional law, "On the government of the Russian Federation" and issue a new presidential decree to place the 15 law-enforcement ministries, and probably even the Foreign Ministry, under the control of the prime minister. Things are more difficult with the function of the president as supreme commander-in-chief, since Putin would need to change the constitution in order to take control.

And finally, Russia needs to clarify its foreign policy strategy. Does Moscow intend to move towards a united Europe or continue its inconsistent policy and become a raw materials appendage of India and China, who are growing in economic and military power? Newly-elected President Medvedev is in no hurry to lay his cards on the table. Putin recently let drop a meaningful phrase. He said that, as a former KGB agent, he has always had to prove to the West that he is a reliable partner. From this point of view, Medvedev is less vulnerable and nothing will prevent him from mounting a tough defence of Russia's foreign policy interests.

The first official visit by a newly-elected head of state gives some indication of the foreign policy priorities of his administration. Dmitriy Medvedev has said that it will be to one of the CIS countries. Which one? If it is Belarus, which recently recalled its ambassador to the USA and suggested that Washington does the same, this will be an open sign of an imminent deepening of the confrontation with the USA and NATO. A visit to Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan would indicate a shift in foreign policy priorities from Europe to Asia and to the East. Of course, a visit to Ukraine would be more expedient, due to the level of human relationships and Ukraine's importance to Russia. But the parliamentary crisis continues in Kiev and it is aggravated by the growing conflict between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Timoshenko. The whole succession of problems in bilateral relations would make such a visit quite problematic. Only the South Caucasus remains. Georgia is not an option due to the unresolved crisis between Moscow and Tbilisi. After the hideous elections and bloody dispersal of the opposition, Armenia is not the best candidate for a first official visit. So Azerbaijan may prove quite suitable for Medvedev's first visit as president.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has congratulated Medvedev on his election as President of the Russian Federation. "Azerbaijan and Russia are historically linked by close bonds of friendship, neighbourliness, cooperation and mutual support. Today, bilateral relations between our countries have acquired a qualitatively new character and have reached a level of strategic partnership," he said. He also expressed confidence that the joint efforts of the two sides will be channelled into the further dynamic and progressive development of interstate relations between Russia and Azerbaijan and the expansion and strengthening of comprehensive and mutually beneficial cooperation in the cause of the prosperity of the peoples of the two countries and for peace, stability and progress in the region.

Dmitriy Medvedev and Ilham Aliyev who are close in age and world outlook, were both closely linked to the oil and gas industries in the past. What is more, they are both pragmatic politicians. And this is a good basis for a steady partnership. For this reason, regardless of whether Medvedev pays his first official visit as president to Baku or not, the tendency towards closer relations between our countries has every chance of receiving additional impetus under the new master of the Kremlin. Azerbaijan and Russia will only benefit from that.