A HOPELESS OUTCOME

The presidential elec-tions in Serbia were watched closely by the whole world. On 3 February, the interest lay not just in Serbia selecting its president for the next five years (especially as Serbia is a parliamentary republic), but also in the mood of society as the authorities in the Kosovo province (an autonomous region of Serbia in which ethnic Albanians comprise 90 per cent of the population) prepare to declare independence unilaterally.

Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci declared that this could happen within days of the presidential elections in Serbia. "Parliament will declare independence in cooperation and coordination with member states of the European Union, the international administration in Kosovo and the USA," Kosovo Parliament Speaker Jakup Krasniqi said.

Observers say that, in this situation, the peacekeeping forces in Kosovo have already been put on alert. The province is currently under UN rule, which was established in 1999 after the Serbian troops pulled out following NATO air strikes. In early December last year, negotiations on the status of the region failed again. The unilateral secession of Kosovo from Serbia is currently supported by the USA and most of the EU countries (Spain, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, the Republic of Cyprus and Slovakia disagree). Russia is totally opposed to Kosovo's independence. Russia thinks that this may set a dangerous international precedent which will probably be used by other separatist regions in the world. At the same time, Belgrade itself sees the Kosovo province as an important cultural and historical centre and "the cradle" of Serbian statehood. Thus all Serbian politicians, including Boris Tadic, who won the presidential election again, and Tomislav Nikolic, who lost again, are totally opposed to Kosovo's independence. The difference between them is how they see the future of the country, what they are prepared to sacrifice in order to achieve their goals and how they are going to defend the territorial integrity of Serbia.

For example, Boris Tadic, the leader of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DPS), is regarded as a pro-Western politician who consistently supports Serbia's integration into the European Union and cooperation with the UN War Crimes Tribunal for former Yugoslavia. His election programme actively propagated a free market, democratic reforms and national unity. "We have an idea that is capable of uniting the country. This idea is a European and democratic Serbia. We have demonstrated the democratic potential of Serbia to the European Union," Tadic said while addressing his supporters. Brussels was quite pleased with his words. Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who holds the presidency of the EU for the first six months of 2008, pointed out in his special report that "the outcome of the Serbian presidential elections should be perceived as a reflection of the desire and determination of the country's democratic forces to move Serbia forward on its way to the European Union". Jansa also expressed "firm confidence that Serbia will soon succeed in fulfilling the criteria for progress along this path". In turn, the council of EU foreign ministers, which invited Belgrade to sign a political agreement on cooperation on 7 February (an intermediate document which Brussels suggests should replace the full-format Stabilization and Association Agreement), expressed confidence that "Serbia will play a key role in the western Balkans, and the peoples of Serbia are part of the European family".

The signing of the full-scale agreement was earlier opposed by Holland, which demanded that Belgrade fulfil the requirement for "full cooperation with the International Tribunal for former Yugoslavia", which implies the arrest and handover to The Hague of the former leaders of Bosnian Serbs, Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic, who are charged with war crimes. Meanwhile, the "provisional agreement" between Belgrade and Brussels first of all provides for visa-free trips for Serbian citizens to EU countries, as well as for the expansion of relations in the economic and educational sectors. At the same time, we may guess that the beginning of integration into the European Union promises Serbia not just an easing of the visa system and access to the European market, but also financial injections worth millions which will inevitably improve the quality of life for every resident of the country.

According to opinion polls, about 75 per cent of Serbian citizens support their country's entry into the European Union, while almost 81 per cent of Serbs feel positively about the EU. Only 16 per cent of respondents have a negative attitude towards the EU. It turns out that Serbian society clearly sympathizes with Brussels, and most of the country's population accepts that they should definitely be part of a "united Europe". In this case, why did almost half the voters back Tomislav Nikolic (47.78 per cent against Tadic's 50.57 per cent in the presidential elections) who does not actually consider membership of the EU to be a priority for Serbia?

Nikolic is the leader of the Radical Party and is regarded as pro-Russian and a supporter of pan-Slavism. It must be remembered that the radicals achieved their best result in the latest parliamentary elections, although they failed to get enough support to form a government. They used to be allies of the former president, Slobodan Milosevic, while their leader Vojislav Seselj is currently on trial in The Hague for his participation in hostilities in the 1990s. For this reason, Nikolic is totally against cooperation with The Hague and continually expresses his doubts about Serbia's relations with the EU.

Thus the election result showed that Serbia has in fact split into two camps - supporters of democrat Tadic and nationalist Nikolic. We can even say that Nikolic's support has increased recently. The point is that in the presidential elections of 2004 the main frontrunners were Tadic and Nikolic. However, Tadic managed to gain a more impressive victory at the time - he garnered 53.7 per cent of the votes, while Nikolic gained only 45 per cent. There can be only one winner in the race for the presidency; nevertheless, the result of the 2008 election is a clear draw.

There is only one explanation for this political twist - Kosovo. Although negotiations are the business of diplomats, rank-and-file Serbs cannot ignore the fact that, from the very beginning, Belgrade has taken a defeatist position on the future status of the province. There is no doubt that the support of most of the EU, although not direct, for the independence of Pristina plays a special role here. Brussels has lately been less coy about the proposal "Kosovo for a 'green light' to the EU".

Moreover, EU member states preliminarily approved a plan to send an EU mission of about 2,000 people to Kosovo, mainly policemen and lawyers who will have to replace the UN mission running the province now. This decision has yet to be approved by the foreign ministers of EU member states, but it is already clear that the province is being placed under the jurisdiction of Brussels, which does not feel constrained to follow UN resolutions. At the same time, there are still 16,000 NATO soldiers in Kosovo.

Many people in Serbia are now sure that the replacement of the "Kosovo guarantor" is just a step towards the province's independence. But, as we said, not a single Serbian politician, including Boris Tadic who speaks so eloquently about a "democratic and European Serbia", is going to give up on Kosovo. Even if we assume that deep down he is ready to "surrender" Kosovo for a "bright future", the president cannot but understand that such a step is tantamount to political suicide. Maybe Western countries will be happy to give him the Nobel Peace Prize afterwards, but the Serbs themselves will regard him as a traitor forever.

And now it is time to remember that Serbia is a parliamentary republic, and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica has let it be known how Belgrade will treat the European countries which recognize Kosovo's independence. The position of the Serbian prime minister is also supported by Russia. The chairman of the international affairs committee of the Russian State Duma, Konstantin Kosachev, said that Moscow will have complicated relations with any international organization or country which recognizes the independence of Kosovo.

In this light, Tadic's idea of Serbia's successful integration into the EU looks simply ridiculous. The president is likely to have big problems with Kostunica who, incidentally, refused to support him in the elections, saying that citizens themselves have to elect the president. Also, before the second round of the contest for the presidential post, Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia and Velimir Ilic's New Serbia (NS), which form the People's Bloc, demanded that the president consider the political agreement with the EU invalid if Brussels decides to send its mission to Kosovo. Kostunica and Ilic are absolutely sure that the sending of the EU mission to Kosovo automatically means the beginning of the implementation of the "Ahtisaari plan" which, in fact, grants independence to the province. "This is deception. By signing this agreement, Serbia will de facto accept Kosovo's independence and will, indirectly, be the first state to recognize this independence," Kostunica said.

The politicians of the People's Bloc are sure that Serbia should join the EU as a territorially integral state if not de facto, then at least de jure. In this regard, any agreement with Brussels, whether it is intermediate or full-format, should contain guarantees of Serbia's sovereignty over Kosovo, as clearly written in UN Security Council Resolution 1244, adopted in 1999. As a result, Tadic said on 5 February that the presence of the EU mission in the Serbian region of Kosovo, which is striving for independence, is possible only with the approval of the UN Security Council. It is clear that he forced himself to make this statement. As a consequence, the European Union postponed the signing of the political agreement with Serbia scheduled for 7 February. According to EU Expansion Commissioner Olli Ren, this is due to sharply negative reactions from some politicians in Belgrade. "The European Union's invitation remains in force and can be signed at any moment," Ren said.

There are already reports that a political crisis is brewing in Serbia and that Tadic is planning repeat parliamentary elections in order to get rid of Kostunica, who is obstructing his EU plans. It must be remembered that, following the 15 May 2007 parliamentary elections, the current coalition government was formed with great difficulty and at the last possible moment allowed by the constitution.

It is a different matter why Russia backed pro-European Tadic instead of pro-Russian Nikolic, who even said that it is necessary to deploy Russian military bases in Serbia. Moreover, Nikolic believes that Russian capital should have more incentives in Serbia. However, Moscow made a deal with the moderate Tadic on this issue. At the end of January, Moscow was visited by almost the entire Serbian leadership - Vojislav Kostunica, Boris Tadic, Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic, Infrastructure Minister Velemir Ilic and Mining and Energy Minister Aleksandar Popovic. As a result, they signed an agreement under which Gazpromneft will buy shares in the company Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS) i.e. 51 per cent of its authorized capital. The Russian media unanimously quoted a source in the Kremlin as saying that Moscow sees this as the basis for an effective solution to three mutually linked tasks. The first task is, of course, the construction of the Serbian section of the Southern Stream gas pipeline system which will run from Russia (Dzhubgi District in Krasnodar Region) to Varna in Bulgaria via the bed of the Black Sea. Then it is planned to extend it in two directions: to southern Italy and to central Europe. An agreement with Bulgaria has already been signed. The construction of the gas pipeline may start in 2008 or 2009, while gas supplies will commence in 2013. Further, in place of the exhausted Banatski Dvor gas deposit, 60 km northeast of Novi Sad in Serbia, it is planned to build an underground gas reservoir with an active capacity of at least 300 million cubic metres. At the same time, according to Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic, the economic agreement between Russia and Serbia, which concerns mainly the construction of the Serbian section of the Southern Stream, will ensure long-term economic stability and energy security in the Balkans. The Kremlin totally agrees with this and has promised to turn Serbia into "one of the central transit hubs in the new system of Russian energy supplies to southern Europe". This clearly shows that to all appearances, Russia does not need military bases in Serbia - it just needs a "central transit hub" for Russian gas supplies to EU countries. Incidentally, the Southern Stream is seen as a rival to Nabucco, an EU-backed project which will bypass Russia and supply gas to Europe via the Caspian Sea.

Thus the presidential elections in Serbia really do reflect the public mood of the country. It is clear that most Serbs do not want to return to the past - Serbia's isolation under Milosevic, while young Serbs strongly wish to be part of the EU with all the advantages that ensue. But, at the same time, the Serbs are not ready to reconcile themselves to the loss of Kosovo, although the region is quite a heavy burden on Belgrade. The Serbian parliament earlier adopted a resolution according to which troops may be sent to Kosovo in order to preserve the country's territorial integrity. However, experts stress that Serbia does not have the political-military resources at the moment in order to keep Kosovo. It seems that there is little doubt about the outcome of this territorial conflict.

However, the question is how this "forced divorce" will affect the fate of the whole state and its future, including the political and national consciousness of its citizens. What will happen if Kosovo, or what Sergey Markedonov calls "a virus of ethnic self-determination", gradually infects more and more regions around the world? For example, the prime minister of the Serbian autonomy in Bosnia, Milorad Dodik, said on 30 January that his region wishes to see in the country's constitution an article "on the right to self-determination and secession" from the federation. Incidentally, Konstantin Kosachev does not rule out the possibility that Russia may change its attitude towards conflicts in post-Soviet republics. It must be noted that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had earlier flatly denied that Russia might recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia.