OPERATION "SUCCESSOR" NEARS COMPLETION

There is little time left until 2 March, when the name of the next Russian president will become known. Anyone would think that this would be a time of fierce election campaigning. However, it has not even started yet, and it seems unlikely to start because the obvious and indisputable favourite, Dmitriy Medvedev, has decided not to conduct an election campaign. He is not meeting voters and has rejected TV debates. He has also rejected initiatives from local branches of the party and its partners to set up regional headquarters to support their candidate. At the same time, Medvedev refused the services of Nashi, the noisy youth organization set up by the Kremlin and renowned for its actions against the Estonian embassy and the British ambassador, which were unacceptable breaches of the Vienna Convention. In Russian political circles, there is a joke that there is only one voter left in the country and that's Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, and since he has already made his choice, the matter is closed and there is no need for an election campaign.

It is no surprise that such a state of affairs has significantly reduced the population's interest in the forthcoming elections. As for the political class, their energies are shifting towards governmental infighting, as it were, between the towers of the Kremlin, as there is no democratic or truly competitive process. This issue concerns the well-known rivalry between influential groups within Putin's close circle. Nevertheless, it is clear that all this infighting does not question Operation "Successor" - Dmitriy Medvedev's victory has been decided. However, methods of achieving and legalizing this, as well as the benefits of influence, provide leeway for various options. In this regard, Russian and foreign analytical circles debate a whole range of interesting theories and assumptions concerning the configuration of the next government, as well as the possible ideological and political priorities of the future master of the Kremlin.

According to one theory, Dmitriy Medvedev's victory was first planned to occur in the first round by a modest margin - 52-55 per cent - in order not to overshadow "national leader" Vladimir Putin. But the Russian political sector has been not just been thinned out in recent years, it has been totally wiped out. Apart from the Communist leader Zyuganov, who has lost his charisma, Medvedev has two other clowns as political rivals - LDPR leader Zhirinovskiy and Democratic Party chairman Bogdanov. In such a campaign, Medvedev's rating has already reached 75-80 per cent, which is more than Putin himself achieved, according to opinion polls.

Such a sudden surge in popular "love" for the successor serves as cause for alarm within some government groups: will Dmitriy Medvedev become too independent as a result of his impressive victory? In this respect, there is a desire to reduce the significance of the rapid growth in Medvedev's electoral rating. For example, in polls published recently, the pro-Kremlin Public Opinion Fund asked voters to state their choice if Putin was running for the presidency. According to this poll, Putin would be the frontrunner by a great margin, while Medvedev's support falls to 25 per cent.

There is another way to devalue Medvedev's future "impressive" victory, for example, by expelling Gennadiy Zyuganov from the election campaign. If this happens, Medvedev may even achieve 90 per cent. But this would be a victory over political clowns, not in a serious presidential election. For several weeks now, the Russian media has been saying that Zyuganov is planning to drop out of the race because he is not happy with the Kremlin's total control over the election process and he foresees his own humiliation. For example, the influential Nezavisimaya Gazeta has reported violations which might rule Zyuganov out of the presidential race. In turn, Medvedev's supporters in the ruling team are trying to keep the Communist leader in the election race, assuring him that his defeat will not be too humiliating and that Zhirinovskiy will never outstrip him. Considering that all these issues in the Kremlin are controlled by the deputy head of the presidential administration, Surkov, the four registered candidates should play their role to the very end of this election campaign and not cause upset by unpredictable actions.

While all this is going on, Medvedev's previous "estate", Gazprom, (Medvedev chaired the company's observation council until recently) is being purged of undesirable partners - mafia boss Semen Mogilevskiy, who is on the international wanted list. The current Prime Minister, Zubkov, has already been nominated to the board of the company and, apparently, he will take Medvedev's vacant post.

Meanwhile, the international community and, especially, Russia's neighbours, are more interested in "who" will shape the political agenda in reality: Putin or Medvedev? It is also important what this "agenda" will be. As we said above, Medvedev, who is not actually conducting an election campaign, has not presented the public with an election manifesto either. It was replaced by assurances that current policy will continue and the so-called "Putin plan", i.e., probably, the Russian president's recent address to the State Council on the prospects for development until 2020, will be implemented. For this reason, we have to fish "specific details" out of Medvedev's speeches; for example, at the second civil forum, at a meeting of the Association of Lawyers of Russia, the Federation of Independent Trade Unions and so on.

It must be noted that Medvedev's statements contained some differences, tailored to the mood of the specific audience. The total sum of his ideas appears eclectic, which is actually typical of most politicians around the world. According to these ideas, he is a "civilist", i.e. a person who prioritizes the state and law and, at the same time, a "social liberal" or a "liberal socialist". The main thesis underpinning his speech to the Association of Lawyers of Russia is the following: "we want to become a civilized state and, first of all, we need to become a law-governed state." At the same time, relaying the dominant public mood, Medvedev placed emphasis on "stability, stability and stability" in his speech to the second civil forum. On a number of occasions he has been critical of the 1990s, saying that he totally agrees with President Putin that Russia ran beyond its limit of revolutions and civil strife in the 20th century. In the rest of the world, a politician of his age who storms the government heights usually generates and brings about change, rather than a mood of conservativism. But his status as official "successor" imposes a big responsibility.

Just like his predecessor in the post of Russian president, Medvedev is not a member of any party and appears to be free of ideology, which fits his technocratic image. It is no surprise that speaking about the national idea at the same forum, he described it in quite banal and pragmatic terms: "…First of all, freedom and justice: second, this is the civil dignity of each person, and third, his dignity and social responsibility."

Speaking to members of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Medvedev promised to defend property, saying that there will be no repeat privatization and that no-one is planning to establish state capitalism in Russia. While businessmen received their portion of goodies, he promised ordinary citizens a doubling of pensions and improvements to the ecological situation in the country over the next few years. In a word, Medvedev's behaviour is quite adequate and he is saying what different sections of the population want to hear from him. It is clear that "the right and the left", "conservatives and reformers" and "pro-Western and traditionalist" politicians are all mixed together here. In any case, this is a problem for those who describe and explain, while pragmatic politicians solve practical issues and are not really concerned about whether their words and actions fit into political and ideological schemes.

Meanwhile, as we said above, for Russia's neighbours it is important to know whether the country's policy will change after the election of a new president and what sort of position Moscow will take on important global and regional issues. For many foreign partners of Russia, its inconsistent behaviour in the international arena creates great difficulties and uncertainty. Dmitriy Medvedev himself said in one of his speeches recently: "…sometimes they just can't understand where Russia is going and what we are going to do in the long-term."

It is notable that, unlike Vladimir Putin, his "successor" did not dramatize the collapse of the USSR, but accepted it as historical fact, saying: "…empires come and go, and this is no tragedy." Speaking about the CIS, he promised to establish closer relations with Russia's neighbours. Moscow's interest in these countries is natural and mutual, according to Medvedev. It is notable that, ahead of the elections in Russia, it is planned to hold an informal CIS summit in Moscow where some issues may be clarified. We would like to believe that, as a lawyer and a person who declares his allegiance to law, he will also use his authority and powers in the post of Russian president to solve the long-standing conflicts in Nagornyy Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the Dniester region.

At the same time, it is still not clear what Dmitriy Medvedev is going to do about the Kremlin's recent policy of confrontation with the USA and some European countries and the growing anti-Western rhetoric in the state-controlled media. Medvedev is apparently in no hurry to reveal his position, trying not to irritate the "hawks". Meanwhile, people close to the successor, specifically the influential deputy prime minister and minister of finance, Kudrin, and RAO YeES chief, Chubays, openly declared during the Davos forum that this confrontation is erroneous and has no future. It does not promise any dividends, while the campaign against the British Council will have its own price, including an economic one, and it is time for those behind it to compare the results they get with the loss of Russia's image and attraction to investors.

It is clear that Dmitriy Medvedev, known for his previous activities, will be different in the post of Russian president. For the time being, he is still in Vladimir Putin's shadow and is only his "successor" and official presidential candidate. Attentive observers have even noticed that Dmitriy Medvedev copies some of the gestures, intonation and phrasing of his popular predecessor and boss. The true scale of the future Russian president's personality will be revealed only after he takes up the reins of power in the Kremlin. The riddle "Dmitriy Medvedev + Vladimir Putin" will be solved soon. So let's wait and see what happens.