THE CASPIAN WILL RISE

An increase in the sea level is one of the gravest, and at the same time most graphic, manifestations of global warming. According to the forecasts of the inter-governmental group of experts on climate change, made up of 2,000 scientists from different countries, the level of the world's oceans will rise by 18-59 centimetres by 2100 due to the melting ice caps in Antarctica and Greenland. This will mean the flooding of several island states and coastal cities. In future this process will speed up to one metre and more per century, according to the expert group. What a prospect!

The Caspian - a model of the world's oceans

"It's easy to love humanity, try to love your neighbour first," said the poet. It really is easy to debate the planet as a whole, but much more difficult when something that seemed so remote and almost unreal suddenly appears in your town or village. And the rise in the sea level is no exception. Man is able to comprehend any manifestations on a global scale first of all through events in his own environment.

In this regard Azerbaijan is lucky and it's hard to know whether to put the word "lucky" in inverted commas or not. We have a living model of the world's oceans right under our noses - the Caspian Sea. Moreover, not only is the geographical scale of the original reduced in this model, but the time scale of events is reduced too. What has happened to the world's oceans over 1,000 years, the Caspian shows us, though very roughly, in decades. The problem is that decades for human life are also a lot. One generation blithely forgets the experience of their predecessors who suffered from the whims of the grey Caspian. And then they hang tear their hair out. And only scientists who scrupulously make their observations and calculations do not tire of warning us about problems to come. The state usually takes heed of their warnings, while private individuals often do not. And it is the state that suffers at the end of the day.

Dr of Geography Amir Aliyev, director of the Maritime Meteorology Centre in the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources' National Hydrometeorology Department, has spoken a great deal about this and related topics. But how accurate is it to describe the Caspian as a model of the world's oceans or is it just a nice, journalistic turn of phrase? In order to use the term with confidence I asked the scientist what factors regulate the change in the level of the Caspian. The reply confirms the propositions: Amir Aliyev said that the greatest factor in this, 85 per cent, is the climate, including global climate changes such as the rising level of the world's oceans and an increase in precipitation. More-over, the Caspian Sea, which to be accurate is a lake, though the largest in the world, is firmly tied to its own basin, the area of which is 10 times greater than the area of the Caspian itself. Some 85 per cent of our sea is filled by the rivers of this basin and by cyclones and anti-cyclones bringing moisture which turns into water. The main way in which water leaves the Caspian is evaporation (95 per cent). The relationship between the inflow and outflow of water determines the level of the Caspian.

Tectonic threat exaggerated 

However, while the climate factor exceeds all the others, it is not the only determinant of the level of the Caspian. The tectonic factor also plays a very small role in this process, 5 per cent. This means that the hysteria about "faults beneath the Caspian" that regularly follows every underground tremor in the capital is unfounded. If the tectonic factor was decisive in this instance, Old Man Caspian would have swallowed us up long ago, like Cronus eating his children, before we could say Jack Robinson. But he almost never changes his level abruptly in just one hour. Like a patient living being, with greater intellect than us, he gently, by degrees, tries to show us that it is not worth quarrelling with nature. 

The third and final factor determining the level of the Caspian is the human one which has a 10 per cent share in the process, not all that much but not all that little either. However, Amir Aliyev thinks that the human factor will increase over time. It is easy to guess that this is linked first of all to the increase in the volume of oil and gas extracted offshore. However, the oil companies' observance of environmental norms can slow down the growth of the role of the human factor in the rising sea level.

More on the human factor - of the five states that dance around the Caspian Azerbaijan has the greatest interest in exact forecasting of the changes in the sea level. Of the 15 million people living on the Caspian's shores, 4.5 million live in our country. This is impressive. More important, it is 60 per cent of the population of Azerbaijan. Of course, there is a fair number of Russians living on the shores of the Caspian, 3.3 million, and six million Iranians but they constitute just 2.3 per cent of the population of the Russian Federation and 9 per cent of the population of Iran respectively. One interesting fact is striking - in the light of this figure Azerbaijan and the Caspian constitute a model of the Earth. The Caspian symbolises the world's oceans in this model, for the reasons given above, while Azerbaijan symbolises all mankind, as 60 per cent of the world's population live in coastal regions.

We calculated and wept

Over the course of millennia the level of the Caspian, and correspondingly the contour of its coastline and size of its water area, have changed massively. The transgression that occurred 32-22,000 years ago and the regression 9-8,000 years ago were peaks in this process. This all happened too long ago and, more important, too slowly to teach today's residents of the Caspian coast accurately and quickly to interpret the movements of the crafty sea. Observations over a shorter period of time are far more striking. For example, the last century (regular observations of the level of the Caspian with the help of instruments have been made since 1837) - in 1900-30 the level of the sea was stable but high - 26 metres below the level of the world's oceans under the Baltic system. In 1930-42 it fell sharply to 28 metres but did not stop at this. In 1977 it reached 29 metres, the lowest level in the last 500 years. There has since been an upward trend. In 2006 the level of the Caspian was already 26.75 metres. Amir Aliyev and the specialists in his centre forecast that by 2015 the level of the Caspian will rise by almost another metre. This is very serious. The scientist insists that the calculations are accurate and is sounding the alarm.

If the forecast comes true, we need to prepare for major damage and try in advance to minimize losses. Amir Aliyev recalls the grievous economic consequences of the sharp increase in the level of the Caspian in 1978-95 as an example and a warning. Fifty settlements were flooded in Azerbaijan's coastal regions during this relatively short period. Some 250 enterprises, 60 kilometres of roads, 10 kilometres of railway lines, 30,000 hectares of winter pasture, 10,000 hectares of irrigated land and many leisure facilities (sanatoria, beaches etc.) catering for 200,000 people remained under water. The monetary cost of these losses is around $2bn.

As a result of the increase in the sea level, from 1978 Azerbaijan lost 484,500 hectares of land. Amir Aliyev said that in line with his and his colleagues' calculations of a one metre increase in the sea level by 2015 around 80,000 hectares of land are under threat of flooding or partial flooding. The overall amount of productive land lost would increase threefold to 1,309.6 hectares.

The likely threat of flooding hangs over the Azerbaijani coastline, but this threat is not distributed equally. Staff at the Maritime Hydrometeorology Centre have drawn up an atlas of flooding in the coastal zone, based on their research, and divided it into four sectors - from the River Samur to the Abseron peninsula, the Abseron peninsula itself, from the peninsula to the River Kur and from the Kur to the River Astaracay. Research shows that the Qizilagac nature reserve and Neftcala District will bear the greatest blow if the sea rises by one metre.

Residents of the capital may ask what will happen to Abseron. The bare arithmetic paints the following picture. Azerbaijan's Caspian coastline is 740 km long, of which approximately 290 km come under the Baku mayor's office. This is more than the coastline in any other administrative district in the country (even in the enormous Qizilagac nature reserve it is just 100 km). Nevertheless, because of the geo-morphological features of the coastline the pattern of losses if the sea rises by one metre will not be proportional to the length of coastline. The area of flooding in the Qizilagac reserve will be 10 times greater than in the area controlled by the Baku mayor's office. It will be around 60,000 hectares in the Baku mayor's office area, which for its part is 30 times more than in Astara District and 50 times more than in Salyan District. What de-lights...

Determining the "planned" increase in the level of the Caspian is the main but not the only tool to calculate the area of expected flooding. There are other minor, but just as unpleasant, collateral factors influencing the process. Amir Aliyev says that the most important of them is the east wind which causes temporary flooding. A minor detail in the background of the main problem? It depends how you look at it. Temporary flooding also means damage. Another "minor detail" is the concomitant factor of the level of ground water. Amir Aliyev says that it depends directly on the sea level. It is not difficult to imagine where this will lead, but it is difficult to estimate the exact cost of damage.

Race for coastal dividends

The latest "waltz" awaits resolution. But is the Caspian really so insidious? After all, it is honest in its own way when it makes clear that some areas of land will never belong completely to mankind. And the fact that this area has been dry land for decades does not mean anything. Everything can change in just one year. It should not be forgotten that these places were not always dry land and then there will be no tragedy.

Amir Aliyev remembers, "Once when we were discussing the problem of flooding in Lankaran, one of the elders gestured towards the shore saying, 'Our grandfathers and great-grandfathers knew and told us that you should not build houses on that side of the road, on the seashore itself. They did not build there and we did not build there either. We knew that when the Caspian has withdrawn it will always return. And now there are villas there…'" Amir Aliyev gave a graphic example from the Soviet period of how the state has reacted to the change in the level of the Caspian. The piles of Oily Rocks were initially seven metres above the water, but after the death of Mikhail Kaverochkin's brigade (in a powerful storm rescue boats could not get close to the drilling platform which was washed away by powerful waves) the height of the piles was almost doubled to 12 metres. 

The saddest thing is not that the change in the level of the Caspian is a process beyond man's control. If you think about it, this is a good thing - imagine what a terrible "miracle weapon" this would be! The saddest thing is that man usually does not want to acknowledge his helplessness in this case and does not want to restrict his greed. How many people rush to take over regularly flooded areas in the race for instant profit! They don't think about future losses and human victims.

Building on coastal areas and river flood plains is not only a problem in Azerbaijan. There is hardly a country in the world where you won't find many kamikazes hell bent on settling on land "temporarily rented" from the water or setting up business there. It's clear that since time immemorial coastal areas have provided excellent farmland, fishing and sailing and the recreation industry and tourism thrive in these areas. This is understandable. But is the game worth the candle?

P.S. The work of scientist Amir Aliyev is included in Azerbaijan's second national report on climate change.