SECOND COMING OF MIKHEIL THE UNITER

The snap presidential election was held in Georgia on 5 January and, as expected, ended in victory for Mikheil Saakashvili. The authorities were forced to seek the support of voters when they were looking for a way out of the acute political crisis which developed in the country in early November last year.  As we know, opposition groups staged mass protests which were dispersed by the strong-arm tactics of the police. A state of emergency was declared and the Imedi and Kavkasia TV channels were shut down. These moves by the Saakashvili government stirred up strong criticism, even in the United States and EU, which support his policy. In the past, changes of government by force had already occurred twice, under presidents Gamsakhurdia and Shevardnadze: by civil war in the first case and the bloodless "Rose Revolution" in the second. So the snap election was designed to keep confrontation between the authorities and united opposition, which was escalating into a dangerous situation, within democratic and legal limits.

However, the opposition failed to nominate a single candidate against Mikheil Saakashvili: six contenders for the highest official post joined the campaign, which of course limited dramatically their chances of success. The campaign period was very short, and the opposition leaders failed to launch full-blown campaigns, especially in the provinces. Saakashvili's opponents point to numerous violations of electoral law, cases of violence against activists and leaders of local branches of opposition parties and wide use of government resources in favour of the ruling party's candidate.

In justice, it must be admitted, however, that Saakashvili conducted an energetic campaign and visited almost all the regions of the country. He knew how to counter the opposition's criticism of his mistakes and failures. After all, the country's progress during Saakashvili's presidency is visible and undeniable. His government has reanimated state governance, restored Tbilisi's control over Ajaria and Javakheti, and forced Russia to withdraw its troops from the country's territory even before the deadline. Rampant corruption in the lower tiers was curbed, the army and the police were reformed and electricity and natural gas supplies to towns and villages were restored. The government began to repair roads, school buildings, etc. The collection of tax and customs fees was improved, and the national budget increased six times.

Of course, the economic situation of the population remains grave. The high rate of unemployment, which is further aggravated by massive job cuts in government departments, aroused displeasure among the people. Saakashvili's opponents tried to take advantage of this and started to make generous promises. For example, Badri Patarkatsishvili, a billionaire who decided to run for president (by some estimates, his fortune reaches $11 billion) announced his plan to spend $1 billion from his own pocket to keep his campaign promises. In particular, he undertook to cover the lion's share of all utility bills of the Georgian population and pay off 100 kilowatt-hours of electricity, most of the natural gas bill and the entire water supply bill every month, provide financial assistance to the jobless and buy up the entire harvest of grapes and citruses next year, as well as to start paying generous child benefits to the parents of every new child. Shalva Natelashvili, leader of the Georgian Labour Party, did not stint on generous populist promises either. For his part, Saakashvili was also issuing promises left and right to improve the economic and social condition of Georgian citizens, beginning with cheap, government-sponsored loans and ending with direct subsidies for the population, even stooping to handing out firewood, flour, sugar and vegetable oil to needy families, especially in rural areas.

As for foreign political issues, the candidates had no serious differences in their views. Almost all of them, with the exception of Irina Sarishvili and Shalva Natelashvili, supported the idea of a Euro-Atlantic orientation for Georgia. But whereas Saakashvili argued that the country's problems cannot be resolved without a strong presidency, the opposition's programme was based upon demands that the country should become a parliamentary republic and the post of president should be abolished.

The election campaign was certainly influenced negatively by the situation at Imedi TV. Under pressure from the West, the authorities agreed to reopen the channel but, on 26 December 2007, the channel again suspended its broadcasting. The channel management made a statement that this was done in protest against the Georgian authorities' policy and also because of the unclear situation that had developed around the channel's owner, Patarkatsishvili. The latter was forced, when confronted with irrefutable evidence, to admit that he had held talks in London with Erekle Kodua, head of the Counter-intelligence Department of the Internal Affairs Ministry and had offered him $100 million in return for anti-government actions. Many journalists resigned or refused to go on the air after that.

Be that as it may, the election campaign did take place, and was peaceful, without any acts of violence. The Georgian Central Electoral Commission processed ballots from 3,424 electoral precincts (of the total 3,512) and announced the following results: Mikheil Saakashvili received 52.21% of the votes, Levan Gachechiladze - 25.26%, Badri Patarkatsishvili - 6.99%, Shalva Natelashvili - 6.42%, Davit Gamqrelidze - 4.02%, Giorgi Maisashvili - 0.76%, Irina Sarishvili - 0.19%. Voter turnout was 56.17%. The voters' lists included 3,352,448 Georgian citizens. The candidate from the united opposition, Gachechiladze, won Tbilisi, whereas Saakashvili led in the provinces.

So, according to the official statement of the Central Electoral Commission, Mikheil Saakashvili was elected Georgian president in the first round of the election. The Polish, Ukrainian, Lithuanian, Kazakhstani, Turkish and Arme-nian presidents have already congratulated Saakashvili. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also sent him a letter of congratulations, in which he noted that "Azerbaijan and Georgia are historically linked by inseparable ties of friendship, good, neighbourly relations and mutual support." "These good traditions remain a firm foundation for relations between our nations and our strategic partnership to this day. I am certain that in the future, our combined efforts towards broadening and advancing Azer-baijani-Geor-gian cooperation, both bilaterally and within the frameworks of international and regional organizations, will promote the prosperity of our peoples, peace, stability and progress in the region," I. Aliyev wrote.

The international community recognized the legitimacy of the results of the Georgian election and Saakashvili's victory not only on the basis of the official decision of the Georgian Central Electoral Commission, but also in consideration of the opinions of almost 1,000 foreign and 2,000 local observers who monitored the Georgian election campaign and supervised the voting process on the voting day. Their report reads that "this was the first truly competitive election in the country, which enabled the Georgian people to express their political preferences." It also noted that the "election campaign was conducted in a very tense atmosphere, marked by mistrust and multiple accusations of irregularities. The distinction between the carrying out of official duties by the former president and campaigning were often blurred, which enhanced the effect of absence of rivalry in the run up to the election." Matyas Eorsi, head of the OSCE delegation, noted that the presidential election, "although it was not absolutely flawless, enabled the Georgian people to express their reaction to the political crisis which has taken shape in a democratic manner." For her part, Marie-Anne Isler-Begen, who headed the delegation from the European Parliament, called the election "yet another step ahead for the young and fragile Georgian democracy." She also promised that the EU will keep providing assistance to Georgia in holding elections throughout this journey towards democracy.  A small, 22-strong delegation of the CIS countries also gave a generally positive assessment to the election.

However, the opposition categorically disagreed with these reports and now argues that the result in Saakashvili's favour was achieved through mass rigging and irregularities, which is why a second round should take place, with the participation of Saakashvili and Gachechiladze. The opposition staged a rally on Riqe Square in Tbilisi on 6 January, in which some 10,000 people took part, demanding a recount of the ballots and protesting against the premature declaration of Saakashvili's victory. Due to unusually cold weather and snowstorms, the next rally of the united opposition was postponed from the scheduled date of 8 January to 13 January.

Leaders of the united opposition, including Levan Gachechi-ladze, Giorgi Khaindrava, Jondi Baghaturia, Koba Davitashvili and others, gathered in front of the Central Electoral Commission building on 9 January, demanding the resignation of Commission Chairman Levan Tarkhnishvili.  They broke into Tarkhnishvili's office and said that his organization rigged the election results and legalized counterfeit tabulation records. During an improvised press conference, Tarkhnishvili told journalists that the electoral commissions received 450 complaints demanding that the election results from 40 electoral precincts be voided. Major irregularities were found at those precincts, including the casting of extra ballots into the ballot boxes by voters. However, because the deadline for filing complaints at the Central Electoral Commission had passed, protests against irregularities can only be contested in court. But even if the election results in these precincts are voided, this will not change the overall result of the election.

The presidential election overshadowed the referenda on two important issues which were held simultaneously with the vote: one on Georgian citizens' opinions about the country's accession to NATO and another on holding parliamentary elections in the spring of 2008. A majority of voters supplied positive answers to both questions. According to preliminary results, more than 60% of voters said yes to Georgia's aspiration to join the North Atlantic alliance. The country's government hopes that these results will help Georgia receive the green light to assignment of a Membership Action Plan for Georgia by NATO. However, this is unlikely to happen at the upcoming NATO summit in Bucharest in April. Members of the alliance are not particularly keen to take on the extra burden of Georgia's problems, and still less to anger Moscow at a time when they need to find a common language with the Kremlin on pressing problems like Kosovo and Iran. This is why NATO, although it reaffirmed that its door is open for Georgia, will most probably shelve the admission issue, citing as an excuse the need to wait to see whether the upcoming parliamentary elections meet democratic standards and for finalisation of reform of the Georgian Army and the strengthening of civilian control over the military.

Saakashvili said that parliamentary elections might take place in April or May. This was precisely the main demand at rallies staged by the opposition last fall. So, formally, they achieved their goal.  It is possible that the opposition's pressure on the government stems from a desire to negotiate more acceptable terms in the holding of parliamentary elections. The opinion of the overwhelming majority of both local and foreign analysts is that the opposition's chances of generating enough tension to achieve a voiding of Saakashvili's victory are minimal. Saakashvili himself is being restrained. He has promised that the parliamentary elections will be free and fair and expressed his readiness to be more attentive to the opinions of different social groups and even invite professionals from the ranks of the opposition to his government. Confirming Georgia's European orientation, Saakashvili made reconciliatory statements towards Russia and said that he was ready to make serious efforts to normalize bilateral relations and seek a compromise in the regulation of problems which strain relations between the two countries.

The position of ethnic Azeris in the presidential election was quite important. The second largest ethnic minority in Georgia, the majority of them voted for Saakashvili. They did so not only because of their traditional inclination to vote for the incumbent government, or out of consideration for the friendly partner-like relations between Tbilisi and Baku.  Although they too have numerous complaints about the authorities, Georgia's Azeris pointed out that, in contrast to its predecessors, the Saakashvili government did its best to resolve the problems of many communities. The roads between administrative centres of districts and villages were repaired to an acceptable standard and village schools were repaired and computerized. Although not all expectations of Georgian Azeris regarding land reform have been realised, the majority of them received their own private plots of land. The robberies, banditry and hostage-taking, which were quite frequent in the past, have been curbed. And most importantly, police, customs officers and local officials do not extort bribes any more, so it is possible to deal with them now.

The election in our neighbouring country was very important for Azerbaijan too. It is not a question of the victory of this or that candidate. Regardless of who becomes the Georgian president, the strategic partnership of our countries will continue. What would be unacceptable for us would be weakness in the government and, especially, chaos in Georgia. Any instability would pose a threat to the normal functioning of the strategic oil and gas pipelines, communications lines and other large-scale projects which Azerbaijan and Georgia launched together. It is obvious that the re-election of Mikheil Saakashvili, with whose direct and active participation these projects were launched and implemented, and who has close contacts with the Azerbaijani Government, will make it possible, without losing time on familiarization and limbering-up, to keep working hard on strengthening our strategic partnership through the development of political and economic cooperation.