BETWEEN CRISIS AND EU

When the issue of the Balkans is raised in discussion, local and international mass media, experts, analysts and politicians immediately shift their focus to Kosovo, relations between Belgrade and Pristina and settlement of the Kosovo issue.  However, a situation which is no less acute or full of internal conflict is gathering steam in another ex-Yugoslav state, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia and Herzegovina - and this merits special emphasis - is a no less important factor in the stability of the region which we now call the Western Balkans.

Since 1995, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has been governed according to the Dayton accord (see Region Plus' reference note).  It is a peculiar kind of multi-level state, which is made up of two constituent parts (entities) - the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is populated predominantly by Bosnian Muslims and Croatians, and Republika Srpska, populated mainly by ethnic Serbs.  But today, the principles of the Dayton settlement, which were dictated by the situation which existed in 1995 and which aimed to stop the fierce inter-ethnic conflict that had erupted in 1992, are now outdated and increasingly inapplicable in the situation which has evolved.  The complex administrative system designed in 1995 has proved ineffective.  Multi-level elections, with a complicated system of vote counting, have also turned out to be ineffective.  In addition, the situation in BiH is influenced by the Kosovo factor.  It is interesting to note that economic development in present-day Bosnia occurs only in the mono-ethnic areas (Sarajevo, Banja-Luka, Zenice, etc.).  On the other hand, the areas which could not be divided between the ethnic groups are experiencing stagnation.  This is why the top-priority issue on the domestic agenda in BiH is reform of the system of government - first and foremost, constitutional reform - which would make it possible to achieve balanced development throughout the country.  However, reform and the process of changing the current constitution face huge difficulties which threaten the existence of a single BiH and with a risk of escalation of the conflict which follows directly from the as yet unregulated conflict in Kosovo.

In contrast to Serbia, Croatia and Montenegro, BiH, although it is a member of the UN, does not have full state sovereignty:  The High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina still plays an important and, in some issues, a decisive role.  The incumbent High Representative is Slovak diplomat Miroslav Lajcak.  The Office of High Representative was scheduled for closure on 1 July 2007 and transformation into a mission of the EU special representative.  However, discord between the state-forming "constitutional" ethnic groups, Bosnian Muslims, Croatians and Serbs, prevented their legitimately elected representatives from taking full responsibility for the destiny of BiH and peace in the region.  The point is that the issues at dispute, such as police reform, education (the Bosnian secondary education system currently fosters ethnic segregation - children of different ethnic groups go to different schools), the merger of ethnic cultural institutions, and the strategic development of the country, require a single-minded approach and the strong will of the High Representative to achieve progress and find a way out of impasse. The leaders of Republika Srpska, in particular, were against the idea of merging the police forces of the two entities into a single, national police system.  At present, each of the entities has its own police force, in addition to its own parliament and government, and the EU is trying to persuade the entities to merge the police units and end ethnic division in the law enforcement bodies.  The Serbs of BiH argue that such reform will encroach upon the rights and powers of their entity.  And only the High Representative's threat to use his right of veto against the ethnic Serbs' objections helped bring this process to the signing of an appropriate agreement in late September this year.

To summarize the results of 12 years of peaceful development in BiH, it has to be said that the Dayton Accord did stop the war but did not end ethnic conflict; simply, the phase of armed confrontation ended and a phase of political struggle began.  The numerous elections which have taken place in BiH since 1996 have, unfortunately, never been used to achieve national consensus on reform of the state and society or to ensure a better future for all citizens of Bosnia.  Instead, the elections remain a form of ethnic confrontation. The success of the Dayton Accord stemmed from the fact that it was not imposed arbitrarily and took into account the interests of all parties to the conflict and the opinions and proposals of all international mediators.  At the same time, there remain problems which need to be addressed in a Bosnian settlement.  The priorities of the Bosnian settlement at this stage are the strengthening of the institutions of central government, implementation of economic and other reforms, transformation of law enforcement bodies and the judiciary system and, most importantly, the formation of a united, Bosnian nation state from the three "constituent peoples."

Debates about the constitutional project

Like other ex-Yugoslav states, BiH is striving to join the EU and NATO.  Besides the economic and military-political advantages, accession to these organizations requires conformity to certain standards; in particular requiring much greater unity and centralization of political authority.  However, the authorities in Sarajevo, the capital of BiH and of the BiH Federation, and the authorities in Banja-Luka, capital of Republika Srpska, have different views on the country's future.  The most glaring example of this was seen in the debates on a new constitution, which took place in 2007.  The controversy surrounding the document runs, in large part, along the ethnical division lines between Bosnian Muslims, Croats and Serbs.

The constitutional project of the Bosnian Muslims is predicated upon the premises that the state should be decentralized on the one hand and that no article in the new constitution should bring into question the sovereignty, international legal identity or the territorial integrity of BiH within its current borders or make it possible to block the actions of government departments.  However, for now all this is theoretical.  One of the pivotal ideas of the project is the abolition of the current administrative division of BiH into two entities - the federation and the republic - and the creation of five regions, whose borders will be demarcated according to economic, geographic, transport-related, historical and ethnic criteria.

The Croatians have their vision of a new constitution.  To a degree, there are overlaps with that of the Bosnian Muslims, especially regarding the main idea of the abolition of the current "two-member" system and the creation of a new one using the aforementioned criteria.  However, this similarity could not prevent heated debates about the borders of each of the regions (or provinces), for each of the three parties - Bosnian Muslims, Croats and Serbs - will try to turn all of these regions into their "own" ethnic entity.

It is a remote prospect for now, however, because the ethnic Serbian politicians from Republika Srpska insist that the state should be preserved as an ethnic territory.  In this respect, they support the idea of the continued application of the Dayton principles, which they have previously criticized, more than once.  The reason for this is the mistrust which the Serbs have of the Croatians and Bosnian Muslims and also the fact that some of the politicians from Republika Srpska, who are under the strong influence of Belgrade, still entertain the idea of the secession of Republika Srpska from BiH and accession to Serbia.  The threat of a referendum on this issue emerges regularly in response to attempts to determine the status of Kosovo.  In general, however, it is the ethnic Serbs who resist every initiative to strengthen integration in BiH and consolidate central government.

In other words, the issue currently on the agenda is whether BiH will take steps toward a single multi-ethnic civil nation state, which would be the only entity under international law, or whether it remains an amorphous entity in which political problems are caused by shifts in balance between the three ethnic groups and two quasi-state entities (sometimes they are referred to as mini-states). The latter option makes it possible for the Croatian side to raise again the possibility of founding a third, Croatian entity and thereby dissolving the BiH Federation.

Problems of ethnic minorities, or a "bomb in a bomb"

However, the political and legal problems of BiH are by no means limited to those of the constituent peoples. The problems of the ethnic minorities are becoming increasingly important. The point is that, according to the electoral law currently in force, a person who does not identify himself as belonging to any of the three, so-called, constituent peoples cannot be elected to the supreme governing body of BiH, its Presidium, which is made up of the representatives of Bosnian Muslims, Croatians and Serbs, or to the House of Peoples of the Parliament of BiH.  This is causing growing discontent among the ethnic minorities in BiH - Jews, Gypsies, Czechs and others.  The leader of the Jewish community in BiH filed a complaint to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg, saying that representatives of all ethnic groups should have the right to be elected to these bodies.  Indeed, the current situation is discriminatory and hinders the creation of a single, multi-ethnic community in BiH.  Social problems, such as unemployment due to the absence of the manufacturing facilities, emigration, the absence or inadequacy of social insurance, poverty and de-mining the former battlefields, have remained unresolved for many years.  Obviously, these problems cannot be resolved if the organization of society and state according to ethnicity is continued.  Yet another problem which hampers the strengthening of the state of Bosnia concerns the trials of the military and politicians who were indicted for war crimes or crimes against humanity.  They are still under way at the Hague Tribunal for former Yugoslavia and in court rooms all over BiH, Serbia and Croatia.  To people who lost their loved ones - the number of people killed in the war in BiH was between 100,000 and 250,000, according to different estimates, not to mention the wounded, refugees and internally displaced persons (1.8 million people out of a total population of 5 million became refugees) - criminals remain unpunished and justice unrestored.

But in the 12 years since the implementation of the peace agreement, BiH has registered reasonably successful results: The institutions of central government are functional, judiciary reform has been carried out, a number of important social and economic changes have been implemented and crime figures have fallen to average European levels.  In the last five years, the country has created a unified customs service and passed unified tax laws.  More than 1 million refugees have returned to their pre-war homes and resumed ownership of their property.  As a result of these successful reforms, a preliminary agreement was signed in early December by the EU and BiH on the beginning of a process which, in time, might result in accession to the EU.  The High Representative of the Peace Implementation Council, Miroslav Lajcak, stressed that the launch of the negotiating process "might sound like a formality, but it bears huge symbolic importance after long months of political paralysis."  The agreement was signed after agreement was reached on reform of the Bosnian police:  this was one of the conditions stipulated by the EU before the beginning of preliminary talks about the possibility of admission to the EU.  The preliminary agreement on the beginning of talks will be implemented only after the merger of the two police units, and the Bosnian leadership hopes that the signing of the final, not preliminary, agreement might take place as early as mid-2008.

So, despite the unregulated problems of administrative and ethnic systems and development, BiH has already embarked on the road towards the EU.  In addition, the country is a full member of the UN, OSCE, Council of Europe and other international organizations (on 9 November 2006, BiH was admitted to the Partnership for Peace programme at the NATO Riga summit).  It is also quite important that Bosnia is the only European country in membership of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, where it actively interacts with Azerbaijan.  Taking all these factors into account, dialogue and cooperation with BiH is extremely important for our country.  This is why Baku's position on Bosnia should be proactive, aiming at stabilization and consolidation of the Bosnian state with a leading role for the Bosnian Muslims, ensuring the effectiveness of its governing bodies, and the promotion of mutually beneficial cooperation between our countries.