THE "POWDER KEG" OF THE BALKANS

The outskirts of the Serbian capital look like Moscow's dormitory suburbs, while its older parts resemble those of medieval European and Baltic cities. Belgrade's main pedestrian zone, Prince Mihailo's Street, runs into the beautiful hilly park of Kalemegdan (Turkish words "kale" - "fortress" and "megdan" - "field"). The park looks onto the captivating junction of two rivers - the Sava and the Danube. However, the main sight in the park is Belgrade Castle which, just like the whole of Serbia, has seen many battles in the past.

The trace of war

Belgrade echoed to the sounds of war quite recently - eight years ago. Several gutted buildings still stand in the city centre as mute witnesses to NATO air strikes. The reason for the three-month air war launched by NATO was Slobodan Milosevic's refusal to end hostilities in Kosovo (by local guerrillas), restore its autonomy or allow an international peacekeeping force of the North Atlantic alliance into the region. The first air strike on Yugoslavia was carried out on 24 March 1999. Targets across Serbia and its region of Kosovo received most attacks. The operation involved 1,260 planes and helicopters, and 30 battleships, including three aircraft carriers and six nuclear submarines. Almost all member states of NATO, except for the Czech Republic, Poland, Greece, Luxembourg and Iceland, took part in the air raids. The war planes of the alliance made more than 35,000 sorties, dropping about 15,000 bombs (including cluster bombs) and missiles on Yugoslavia. Since the same year, the Serbian province of Yugoslavia, 90 per cent of whose two million people are now ethnic Albanians, has been ruled by the UN.

As for Belgrade itself, it looks like an ordinary, peaceful city at the moment. Young couples walk around the picturesque alleys of Kalemegdan, while the shops selling world-famous brands in Prince Mihailo's Street are completely packed. Almost all residents of the city speak fairly good English, and adverts for the American fast food restaurant McDonalds, which is probably known to most residents of the earth, are all over the place. On an autumn evening in the centre of Belgrade, packed with young people and families with children, the Kosovo conflict, which may turn into a new armed confrontation, seems very far away. 

Nonetheless, Serbia's main problem has yet to be solved. It threatens the whole country, which will never be able to integrate into a united Europe and become a full member of the EU carrying such a burden. Yes, in Serbian shops, you can see price tags written in euros, but the country has its own currency - the dinar. It is clear that it is very important to find a way out of the Kosovo crisis. But no-one - neither Belgrade, nor Pristina, nor international mediators - knows how this should be done.

Of course, it is extremely difficult to argue with facts - most of the people in the disputed Serbian province are ethnic Albanians, whose aspiration to independence is quite understandable. There is one more thing to consider. Kosovo might become a heavy economic burden for Serbia, a country which is not so rich. If Belgrade suddenly decides to say goodbye to the rebellious region, Serbia will probably be immediately incorporated into the EU and investment will start flowing in. If the province remains part of Serbia, Belgrade will have to channel considerable financial resources there.

But this is only one side of the problem. The other side is the national self-consciousness of the Serbian people, which regards Kosovo as the cradle of its statehood - its cultural and religious centre. For this reason, the Kosovo problem still has its own special effect on Serbia's daily life. For example, all Serbian news bulletins start with reports about the Kosovo talks, and this subject occupies the front pages of the papers. Residents of Belgrade are well aware of the refugee problem. But the most graphic sign of the Serbs' unwillingness to part with Kosovo was seen by the author of this article on the fa?ade of a building in Belgrade's historical centre. The words, "Ne damo Kosovo!" (We will not give up Kosovo!") were written by hand in big black letters on a beige wall, although "wall art" is not so popular in the city. An advertising campaign against Kosovo's independence was launched in the Serbian capital recently. Billboards with photographs and quotes from prominent historical personalities appeared in the streets of Belgrade. "We will defend what belongs to us and we will not surrender," these words were written near a portrait of British Prime Minister Winston Churchill who pronounced them during the Second World War. "It is time to demonstrate if we are slaves or free people," says a poster near a portrait of the first US president, George Washington. Other posters carry statements by Charles de Gaulle and Abraham Lincoln.

Zero result

On 10 December, the UN Security Council began studying the report of the "troika" (Russia, USA and EU) of international mediators on Kosovo. The deadline for signing an agreement on the final status of the region expired on 10 December. Diplomatic sources said that the report was officially handed over to members of the Security Council by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Officially, the report should have been submitted on 10 December, however, the date for the handover of the document was postponed because of the secretary-general's visit to Indonesia to participate in a conference on climate change.

The authors of the report acknowledged that Belgrade and Pristina had failed to reach agreement on the status of Kosovo. Nevertheless, the document says that "the sides have been involved in a steady and intensive direct, high-level dialogue since the end of violence in Kosovo in 1999". The authors of the report think that one of the most important issues is the fact that Belgrade and Pristina see their future under "the roof of the European Union". Also, the conflicting sides gave "assurances that they will not resort to actions that might destabilize the situation in and around Kosovo". Nevertheless, the dialogue which had been conducted since August this year yielded no result. Although the "troika" realizes that "Kosovo and Serbia will remain linked to each other because of the special nature of their relations, especially in historical, human, geographic, economic and cultural dimensions", the main question - the status of the disputed province - is still hanging in the air.

The Pristina government desires only full secession from Serbia. Everyone is aware of the statement by Kosovo President, Fatmir Sejdiu: "Independence is the beginning and end of our strategy. One way or another, we will achieve it." Kosovo believes that this issue has almost been solved and expects the local parliament to make the relevant decision (probably in January 2008), while the West - the United States, the European Union and NATO - will recognize the new sovereign state. Belgrade continues to insist that the region should be granted broader autonomy, which means that Kosovo may have its own flag and coat of arms, establish direct relations with international financial institutions and send its own national teams to international sporting events. But all of this should happen on the basis of Serbia's territorial integrity. Russia's permanent representative to the UN Security Council, Vitaliy Churkin, stressed that "the only thing that the Serbs are not ready to accept is Kosovo's membership of international political organizations such as the UN, the OSCE and some others". Belgrade is sure that a final solution to the problem can be found only within the framework of the UN Security Council. According to Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, the country is ready to recognize a decision by the UN Security Council.

Chain reaction

It must be noted here that Belgrade's confidence in a Security Council decision is based on the fact that it is strongly supported by Russia, a country which has repeatedly promised to veto any decision violating Serbia's rights. For example, in early December Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called on Western partners not to succumb to "blackmail" by Kosovo's Albanians. "We understand very well what consequences this might have for other unrecognized territories - not only those situated near our borders, but also all over Europe," the Russian foreign minister said. He was talking about Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the Dniester region and not only them. The chairman of the international affairs committee of the Russian Federation Council, Mikhail Margelov, says that, "if Kosovo declares unilateral independence, we should expect similar events in Kurdistan, Palestine, North Ossetia, the Dniester region, Northern Ireland, the Basque Provinces in Spain and in many other places". The Serbian Republic in Bosnia can be added here as well. Meanwhile, Sergey Lavrov also said that it is impossible to set artificial deadlines for solving this problem. Thus, Moscow insists that negotiations must continue.

But the point is that dialogue should be marked by at least some progress on settlement of the conflict. For this reason, before the Security Council started discussing the report of the "troika", Russian representative Vitaliy Churkin said that the results of the mediators' efforts "are a very good start to negotiations which can be productive and successful in view of the political will displayed by the sides and on condition that the international community makes coordinated efforts to help them achieve this result". The Russian diplomat also said that in 120 days the "troika" managed to do "much more than Ahtisaari did in 15 months". 

It must be remembered that the settlement of the issue was handed over to the mediators after negotiations on the final status of the region between Belgrade and Pristina, held in 2006 with the mediation of the UN secretary-general's special envoy Martti Ahtisaari, yielded no result. As we know, the Ahtisaari plan, in fact, granted independence to Kosovo under international supervision at the first stage. The province would also be allowed to have "lightly armed" military units and symbols of statehood such as a coat of arms, flag and national anthem. What is more, it was planned that Kosovo would be able to pursue its own foreign policy and join various international organizations, including the UN. At the same time, it was planned that the region would not be split into Serbian and Albanian zones, or merge with any other state. However, such a solution did not suit Belgrade, and the plan was blocked with the help of Russia.

With arms in their hands...

In such a situation, it is no surprise that although the conflicting sides agreed to avoid violence after the UN secretary-general is presented with a report on the results of peace efforts, the international community regards the situation in the Balkans as being extremely explosive. During his appearance on the Serbian TV channel RTS, Aleksandar Simic, an adviser to Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, said that Serbia will use all available means to defend its territorial integrity. "Serbia has had negative experiences in a number of armed conflicts which happened during the civil war on the territory of the former Yugoslavia. This is the reason for the greater wisdom and care of the authorities, although we can defend our state interests with arms in our hands in any case. When no-one respects the position of the UN Security Council, the only organization which should react when someone threatens you with aggression or war, then the state has no other choice," Simic pointed out. In turn, the Serbian minister for Kosovo, Slobodan Samardzic, told journalists that Belgrade will react "just like any other country in Europe if its borders are in danger". It must be noted that, as the Serbian media maintains, all the talk "about the last resort" caused heated debates within the local ruling coalition. Observers point out that Belgrade has in fact split into hardliners (the circle around Prime Minister Kostunica) and supporters of a more cautious approach (the circle around President Tadic). For example, saying that the country will not accept Kosovo's independence, the Serbian leader always points out that Belgrade "does not want a war and will take every opportunity to say that". Tadic also always says that the rights of ethnic groups are not violated in Serbia and that the country is ready to sign an agreement on broad autonomy for 20 years in order to raise the issue of the region's status after the agreement expires.

Moreover, apart from rumours about possible military action, according to some information, if Kosovo decides to proclaim its independence, Belgrade might impose an economic blockade and ban trips to Kosovo. Power supplies to the region might be cut off as well.

Meanwhile, NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, General John Craddock, has expressed his readiness to prevent possible clashes between the Serbs and Kosovars. Also, in his address on 30 November, NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer stressed that the alliance will not tolerate distubances in Kosovo and will increase its military presence in the region if need be.

Thus, we can say that the development of events around Kosovo will depend on several factors. First of all, it is not quite clear yet how united the position of the EU will be in the face of Pristina's possible unilateral secession from Belgrade. To all appearances, Spain and Greece are not delighted by the haste in granting independence to Kosovo. Experts are also speculating about how strongly Russia supports Serbia. On the one hand, the Kosovo precedent does not suit Moscow (if we take into account how many ethnic regions there are in Russia). However, at the same time, the Kremlin might want to "try on" the Kosovo case with regard to South Ossetia. And finally, the Serbs themselves cannot but understand that Russia is relatively distant from them and that it is a big state engaged in its own problems and geopolitical strategies. Serbia should belong to a united Europe, along with other member states of the EU. Nor is it clear how far Washington and Moscow can go in the Kosovo game.

It seems that, for the time being, there are more questions than answers. We can only follow developments in the situation and hope that war is already a thing of the past for the Balkan peninsula.