GOODBYE, CFE

On 12 December, Russia withdrew from its obligations to the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE Treaty). A law on the suspension of the implementation of the CFE Treaty by Russia was signed by Vladimir Putin on 30 November. The law was adopted by the State Duma on 7 November 2007 and approved by the Federation Council on 16 November 2007. The Russian head of state first spoke about Russia's withdrawal from the CFE Treaty in his address to the Federal Assembly in summer.

Having threatened to quit the treaty, Moscow in fact did the West a great favour, expressing its readiness to continue detailed dialogue, but this time on its own terms.

First, the Western countries should expedite the ratification of the adapted CFE Treaty. Second, as a result of NATO's expansion to the east, members of the alliance have considerably exceeded the restrictions on the number of weapons established by the treaty and this difference should be compensated. Third, it is necessary to identify parameters of restraint in deploying forces on foreign territories. This concerns the US plan to deploy "significant military forces" at bases in Bulgaria and Romania, which is banned by the treaty. Fourth, it is necessary to take a decision to lift the flank restrictions on Russian territory. Fifth, it is necessary to ensure that the treaty also applies to new members of the North Atlantic alliance - Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Slovenia. Incidentally, this was one of the conditions that Russia put to NATO before the Baltic countries joined the alliance.

Russia's main argument is that the treaty, which was signed during the Cold War in 1990, has long ceased to meet modern European realities and security interests, while its adapted version, signed in 1999, cannot take effect because of the position of NATO countries that "link its ratification to the implementation by Russia of fictitious requirements that have nothing to do with the CFE Treaty". For the time being, it has been ratified only by Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine. By "fictitious demands", the Russian Foreign Ministry means the obligation to withdraw troops from Georgia (Abkhazia) and Moldova (Dniester region) which Russia undertook at the OSCE summit in Istanbul in 1999.

With this dramatic demarche, Moscow caused serious alarm among its "Western partners". We did not have long to wait for a negative reaction from the USA and European countries, as well as of the North Atlantic alliance. But there is one question - why are they so worried, if no-one is going to attack another? Why can't the sides reach agreement if, according to their own information, the number of conventional forces in Russia and NATO countries does not even reach the quotas stipulated by the CFE Treaty? Furthermore, in a period of modern military technology, it is unlikely to be necessary to increase the number of tanks and heavy armoured hardware on both sides of the "iron curtain".

What is happening in reality? In reality, it is a question not so much about control over conventional forces as about the fight for geopolitical influence. Russia is worried about NATO's approach towards its borders, while the West is concerned that Russia will increase its military presence on the border with Eastern Europe and in post-Soviet states still under Moscow's influence. It may well be that the CFE Treaty has become a heavy burden which does not coincide with the goals of either NATO or Russia. For this reason, some are not ratifying the new, adapted version of the treaty, while others refuse to follow the terms of the old treaty. But a fact remains a fact. Russia did not quit the treaty; it only stopped honouring its obligations to it. The West is even concerned about the moratorium. This means that they still need the treaty. The fate of the CFE Treaty will only be known after the presidential elections in Russia and the United States.