PROTRACTED SECESSION

The parliamentary elections held in Kosovo on 17 November have exacerbated even more the situation surrounding the peace talks on the status of this region. This is the third election since 1999, when the region was invaded by NATO troops and placed under international protection. The first elections, in 2001, were organized by the international administration under the aegis of the UN, and in 2004 the Kosovo authorities themselves took an active role in holding the elections. The recent elections, which were wholly organized by the Kosovo government, were of special importance. If they were legitimate and democratic, they may have become an important step towards strengthening the position of the Pristina government in the talks and substantiating the possibility of Kosovo's independent development, according to supporters of the region's independence and EU officials.

It must be noted that the Kosovo parliament has 120 members, of whom 100 are elected from Albanian parties and public organizations and the other 20 seats are traditionally reserved for representatives of the Serbian (10 seats) and the remaining, non-Albanian population of the region. About 1.5 million residents of Kosovo were included on voting lists. After the elections of 2004, the majority of seats in the parliament belonged to the Democratic League of Kosovo (DLK) led by the current president of the autonomous region, Fatmir Sejdiu - 43 seats. The government coalition also included the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (11 seats) the leader of which, Ramush Haradinaj, is now at the remand centre of the Hague Tribunal on charges of war crimes. In Ramush Haradinaj's absence, the party has been led, purely formally, by his brother Daut. Kosovo's sociological services predicted that these elections would be won by the opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo, led by a former commander of the outlawed Kosovo Liberation Army, Hashim Thaci. His party had 30 seats before the November elections.

These predictions proved to be totally true. According to preliminary calculations, the Democratic Party of Kosovo (DPK) gained 35 per cent of votes and beat all other parties, especially the ruling Democratic League of Kosovo, led by Prime Minister Agim Cheku and President Fatmir Sejdiu (they gained only 23 per cent). This means that no party will be able to form a one-party government and that Kosovo will have a new coalition. Its most likely members are the DPK and DLK, and the likely candidate for the post of prime minister is the 39-year-old leader of the DPK, Hashim Thaci, as he is the leader of the winning party. The future prime minister is regarded as one of the most radical Kosovo politicians. Before the war, Hashim Thaci studied philosophy and history at Pristina University. In 1993, he moved to Switzerland and became an active member of the nationalist movement of Kosovo Albanians. He also became one of the commanders of the outlawed Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), on the basis of which the DPK was set up. In the KLA, Mr Thaci, who was nicknamed the Snake for his cunning and brutal character, was responsible for supplying weapons and training militants on Albanian territory. In 1997, the Serbian court of Pristina sentenced him, in absentia, to 10 years' imprisonment for terrorism. By March 1999, the Snake had become one of the most influential field commanders in Kosovo and even led the Albanian delegation at the Rambouillet talks. Having, since then, taken off his military uniform and turned from field commander to opposition politician, Hashim Thaci has never concealed his main goal of Kosovo's final independence.

However, the victory of the Kosovo radicals was dampened by the extremely low turnout, which amounted to 40-45 per cent in these parliamentary elections, which is the lowest since 1999. This happened mainly because most of the Kosovo Serbs, living chiefly in the northern part of the region, refused to cast their votes and support the Kosovo authorities which intend to proclaim the region's independence unilaterally. This position was totally supported by Belgrade, in order not to legitimize a government which intends to proclaim secession from Serbia. For example, Serbian Minister of Economy, Predrag Bubalo, said, one day before the elections, that the local Serbs should not participate in the elections, as there were no personal security guarantees. According to the head of the UN mission in Kosovo, Joachim Ruecker, the turnout in the predominantly Serbian-populated northern part of the region totalled from 0.03 to 0.75 per cent. The parliament of Strpce - one of the five Kosovo districts with a predominantly Serbian population (there are about 90,000 ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo in total) - informed the head of the UN Mission, Joachim Ruecker, that it will not recognize the results of the elections.

However, the problem is not only that the Kosovo Serbs boycotted the elections. The Kosovo Albanians themselves had an extremely passive attitude towards the elections, as they are probably more concerned about real improvements in their living standards than disputes on the status of the region. Nevertheless, Ruecker called for the elections to be regarded as successful and their results as legitimate. "The elections which have been held can be regarded as a good day for democracy in Kosovo. The people of the region demonstrated their political maturity," Ruecker said. The international peacekeeping force (KFOR) and the local police took tight security measures during the elections. According to the UN and OSCE missions and the KFOR command, "all the conditions were created in the region to ensure that voting is held in a safe environment and its results are regarded as legitimate". The US State Department also issued a positive assessment of the elections. Its official spokesman, Sean McCormack, said on 17 November that, "the USA welcomes the allegiance of the Kosovo people to democratic development" and that the elections were, "a democratic step forward". He added that, "the USA deeply regrets the decision of the Kosovo Serbs, inspired by the Serbian government, not to participate in the elections".

Despite such a positive foreign reaction which symbolizes the political support of the USA and the European Union for Pristina's policy on independence, the elections in Kosovo did not and could not become a step towards a settlement. It is known that all Albanian parties are uncompromising and intend to achieve Kosovo's full independence from Serbia, hoping to form a new government by 10 December. On this day, the international mediators (the so-called "contact group") at the Serbian-Kosovo negotiations, who represent the United States, the EU and Russia, will have to submit to the UN secretary-general a report on their results, which are most likely to be zero. What is more, the Kosovo leaders, judging by their statements, are planning to proclaim their independence unilaterally and hope that the United States and other leading Western powers will recognize the new state. All the news agencies of the world are quoting Hashim Thaci as saying that, "Kosovo and Serbia might continue negotiations for another 100 years and achieve nothing".

The elections in Kosovo were held amid fundamental disagreements on the Kosovo settlement between all the members of the "contact group" - the USA, Russia and the European Union. Moscow consistently insists that the negotiating process must continue in order to find a compromise acceptable to both sides - Serbs and Kosovars. In Moscow's opinion, without a Serbian-Kosovo agreement, no steps can be taken to define the status of this conflict region. In other words, Moscow thinks that "Serbia's sovereignty cannot be questioned". For this reason, Russian diplomacy is absolutely against a scenario of "enforced independence" which it thinks runs counter to the UN Charter. Moscow says that the Kosovo settlement could serve as a precedent and stresses that if the USA and some Western European countries recognize Kosovo, Russia will believe it has the right to recognize the independence of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the Dniester region. Moreover, Moscow rightly says that an immature decision on Kosovo might give rise to separatist sentiments and tendencies, not only in the Balkans and in the post-Soviet area, but also throughout Europe.

We have to admit that Moscow's firm position has had a cooling effect on the USA and member countries of the European Union. As a result, the EU is unsuccessfully trying to overcome the split in its ranks and formulate a single policy on this issue. It is known that about 20 countries support the idea of granting independence to Kosovo, while others are against it. For example, London says that Kosovo's position is "obviously unique" and makes it quite clear that it is ready to recognize Kosovo's independence. In its opinion, the plan supported by the UN, which provides for "relative independence" for the province, is the best development of events if Belgrade and Pristina fail to reach an agreement.

Along with Britain, France is also ready to recognize Kosovo's independence. French President Nicolas Sarkozy openly expressed the position of his government on the Kosovo issue in his address to the conference of French ambassadors in August this year. "We support the principle of independence if the world community ensures control and guarantees that the rights of the national minorities will be secured with the assistance of the European Union."

At the same time, a number of countries, primarily Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia - countries that have serious ethnic problems - have made it clear that independence should be confirmed by the United Nations first.

Kosovo's likely prime minister, Hashim Thaci, has already promised to declare the region independent on 10 December - the day when the international mediators in the Serbian-Kosovo negotiations, who represent the USA, EU and Russia, will have to submit a report on the results of their consultations to the UN secretary-general. However, the European Union, which on the whole supports the idea of granting independence to Kosovo under international supervision, has tried to cool down the bid for independence by the winners of the Kosovo elections and called on them for restraint. "Kosovo must be granted independence, but this should not be an uncoordinated unilateral statement. This needs to be coordinated with the international community," the BBC quotes British Minister for Europe, Jim Murphy, as saying. Swedish Foreign Minister, Carl Bildt, also said that a unilateral proclamation of independence might lead to Kosovo's international isolation. "I see that Thaci is making very brave statements," Bildt said. "We understand this, but Thaci should also understand that there is a difference between the role of an opposition politician and the post of prime minister. I don't think that residents of Kosovo will want to be independent of the international community." As a result, Thaci was forced to retreat and say that he will not do anything without the agreement of the USA and EU.

Immediately after the elections, Slobodan Samardzic, the Serbian minister for Kosovo affairs, said that the proclamation of Kosovo's independence would destabilize the situation in the entire Balkans. "If Kosovo's independence is recognized, this will become not only the last stage in the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, but also the first step in a new disintegration and split in the Balkans," Samardzic pointed out. The Serbian politician is not too far from the truth. The radical option for Kosovo's independence - without the consent of the "contact group" and a UN Security Council sanction - might cause a "Balkan domino effect" when unsettled ethnic conflicts in this region flare up again. For example, the conflict might spread to ethnic Albanian-populated districts of Macedonia, as well as to Bosnia of which the Serbian Republic is part. The Serbian Republic might declare its secession from the ramshackle Bosnian federation and merge with Serbia. Incidentally, immediately after the Kosovo elections, the EU high commissioner in Bosnia, who has full authority in this state, decided to restrict the local authorities in the Serbian Republic for fear of attempts by Bosnian Serbs to gain independence as a possible reaction to Kosovo's secession.

Thus, an original situation has developed in the Kosovo settlement. The absence of unity between the US, EU and Russian approaches is an obstacle to progress, but it is also the only guarantee that the situation will not slide into a regional crisis after 10 December when the mandate of the "troika" of mediators expires.