THREE YEARS TO KEEP A PROMISE?

The presidential election will be held in Armenia on 19 February 2008, and preparations are already at full speed.  At an extraordinary session on 16 November, the Armenian Parliament made final amendments to the Electoral Code, which now allows citizens who are away from the areas where they are registered on voting day to vote in the electoral districts where they are staying.  Appropriate marks will be stamped into their passports to rule out the possibility of multiple voting.  From now on, only political parties may nominate presidential candidates, or alternatively, candidates must nominate themselves.  The deposit required from presidential candidates is increased from approximately 5,600 to 25,000 [currency not specified].  It is evident that the changes are insignificant and the legal framework of the election remains mostly the same.

According to the schedule approved by the Central Electoral Commission, both nomination of candidates for the post of head of state and their registration should be completed before 6 December.  The ruling elite of the Republican Party nominated Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan as its candidate for president.  The Prosperous Armenia party, which is the Republicans' partner in the ruling coalition, also declared that it will support the incumbent head of government in the election. First Armenian President, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, also announced that it was his firm intention to enter the race for the country's top political office.  Of course, these nominees do not exhaust the list of the candidates.  In addition, the "clamorous" leader of the New Times party, Aram Karapetyan, and former Prime Minister and leader of the National Democratic Party, Vazgen Manukyan, are also going to run for president.  Artur Bagdasaryan, leader of the Orinats Yerkir party and former Parliament speaker, and a candidate from the Armenian Revolutionary Federation - Dashnaktsutyun (who will be chosen at the party congress) are also expected to join the race.  The nomination of the Heritage party leader and former Foreign Minister, Raffi Ovanesyan, is also a possibility.  The latter three parties are represented in Parliament.

Essentially, the forthcoming Armenian election became intriguing only with the inclusion of former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan in the list of the candidates.  Before that, there was no doubt that the ruling elite would win the election hands down in the first round, and with the observation of the proprieties, that is to say, with a semblance of democracy.  Now, however, the situation is quantitatively different, not only for the candidates, but also for the voters.  Ter-Petrosyan is capable of mobilizing political, financial and human resources to dictate new rules for the game.  This has rekindled voters' interest in the campaign, which is changing from a drab event with predetermined outcome into a truly political process in which it makes sense for the citizens to take part.

This is a consideration for politically active people, however.  The interest of people in the street, who are the majority, is piqued by phrases like "the first president is no fool and would not run in the election had he not been 100% certain that his undertaking will be successful."  All Levon Ter-Petrosyan's actions show that he is going to go in hard.  He has already staged mass rallies, news conferences, and a few rounds of negotiations with leaders of political forces, some of whom he wants as his allies, and with others he intends to coordinate actions to rule out abuse of discretion by the authorities.  His meeting with Vazgen Manukyan and leaders of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation - Dashnaktsutyun - drew the greatest attention because Ter-Petrosyan's relations with them were openly hostile during the rule of his Armenian Pan-National Movement.

On 26 October, Levon Ter-Petrosyan staged the second opposition rally of the election campaign (it was attended by approximately 20,000 people), where he urged the audience to "wash away the incumbent regime with a wave of people's anger."  He also responded to Kocharyan's words, which are disseminated in pro-government propaganda, that the former president must apologize to the nation for his mistakes.  Ter-Petrosyan did apologize, but added sarcastically that he also wants to apologize for bringing people like Kocharyan and Sarkisyan into Armenian politics and he promised to do his best to correct this mistake.

At the same meeting, the People's Party leader, Stepan Demirchyan, who made it to the run-off in the 2003 election, pledged his support for Levon Ter-Petrosyan's candidature.  He explained his decision by saying that Ter-Petrosyan had the potential to unite.  In reply to the pro-government propaganda's deliberations that an alliance of political forces with different ideologies is impossible, he noted that some people are made allies by their cynicism and desire to be rich, whereas others are united by the desire to live in a worthy country.  The Liberal Progressive Party, Conservative Party, Gnchak Social Democratic Party, Motherland and Honour party and numerous nongovernmental organizations and public figures issued earlier statements of support for Ter-Petrosyan.

Opinion polls show growing voter support for Ter-Petrosyan, although the former president's approval rating is lower than not only Serzh Sarkisyan's, but also than those of other potential candidates.  Nonetheless, there are sure signs that the incumbent authorities are very concerned about Ter-Petrosyan's involvement in the presidential race.  Indications can be discerned in the reactions of the political hierarchy and official propaganda machine.  It is known that all TV channels, without exception, are under the authorities' control and cater only to their demands. The most televised people today are Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan and former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan.  The only, but important, difference is that the former is shown solely in positive contexts, whereas the second is only criticized.

This tactic, reminiscent of the old Soviet style, might rebound on the people who conceived it.  After all, manipulation of TV programmes can only stir public interest and enable the opposition to change the nature of the political struggle.  "If the authorities venture to do something about TV, which is indeed possible, then the people will go out onto the streets.  Street Rallies will become battlefields.  And Ter-Petrosyan is quite confident in that environment, because he is an experienced social activist," Yerevan Media Institute Director Aleksandr Iskandaryan rightly noted.

And that is precisely what is happening now.  Levon Ter-Petrosyan makes no secret of his intention to put into motion the mass of protesting voters.  Given that the Armenian political parties have become bankrupt in the public eye and people no longer trust their leaders, only Ter-Petrosyan can successfully tackle this problem if he rallies a majority of the opposition and starts campaigning with a strong team of fresh political forces.  The main thing for him is to drive the presidential campaign to the run-off stage.  The choice will then become easier for Armenian citizens, and the opposition will have an opportunity to mobilize additional resources and enlist support of politicians both in the country and abroad.  As for the back-country criminal tandem of Kocharyan and Sarkisyan, to use the methods of political gangsterism against the country's first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan would be suicidal for them, whereas all other methods of stopping him might no longer be available.

62-year-old Levon Ter-Petrosyan is charismatic, intelligent, and has hands-on experience of governing Armenia during its most critical period.  In my time as the president's advisor and chief Azerbaijani negotiator on regulation of the Karabakh problem in the early 1990's, I have met with Levon Ter-Petrosyan more than once, and I can avow that he is a wise and complete politician and a good communicator.  Although his political opponents accuse him of harbouring intentions to "give away" Nagorno-Karabakh, Ter-Petrosyan is going to promote Armenia's interests just as single-mindedly as the incumbent Kocharyan-Sarkisyan duo.  It is another matter that Ter-Petrosyan can clearly see the "limits of the possible" and realizes the vital necessity of the regulation of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey for sustainable progress in Armenia.  To achieve this goal, he is ready not only to imitate peace talks, but also to achieve results by reaching a compromise at the negotiating table.

In contrast to the opposition, which is striving to rock the political boat, the ruling elite and its candidate, Serzh Sarkisyan, would prefer as "quiet" an election campaign as possible, with a predictable victory in the end.  Their top priority is to secure a comfortable outcome without subjecting themselves to criticism for undemocratic actions.  Naturally, they rely most heavily on areas where the ruling elite has the absolute advantage, namely, administrative resources, manipulation of radio and TV, and the possibility of spending budget money alongside their own substantial funds to bribe voters either directly or indirectly.

The ruling team is mostly made up of political turncoats and conformist technocrats, who are closely tied by family or business interests to local, so-called "oligarch entrepreneurs," whose unambiguous nicknames attest to their criminal backgrounds and low IQ's.  At first sight, the team looks united and very strong, but in reality, it is very vulnerable.  A rift along the Sarkisyan-Kocharyan line is very likely.  After all, each of them has not only common, but also particular interests.  If the opposition's pressure builds up to the extent that total control of political power becomes problematic, everyone within the political elite will begin to put their own private interests above all else.  After all, Kocharyan needs personal guarantees after he steps down.  It is a big question, by the way, which of the potential successors, Sarkisyan or Ter-Petrosyan, he could rely on.  In the past, Kocharyan has demonstrated some degree of loyalty towards the first president.  Although Ter-Petrosyan was completely sidelined - or stepped aside himself - from the political arena, he was not persecuted by the Kocharyan government and was treated with respect, at least outwardly.  Serzh Sarkisyan, too, might suggest sharing power with Ter-Petrosyan, if faced with the possibility of defeat, in order to keep the post of the head of government as the person supported by a parliamentary majority.

The Dashnaktsutyun party cannot be written off either:  If the ruling party and the opposition turn out to be equally strong, it might play a decisive role in shifting the balance in either direction.  The Dashnak are well-organized, wield extensive political and financial resources, and are well-connected and supported internationally.

The election campaign has just begun, and it is difficult to calculate all the contingencies in advance.  However, judging by some of the signs, the phase of inertia in Armenia's political life is drawing to a close, and major changes in the country are imminent.  The need to radically review its political course and to renew the cabinet is increasingly obvious.  According to the constitution, the head of state is elected for a five-year term, but Ter-Petrosyan is asking voters to give him only three years, promising to clean out the Augean stables after the 10-year rule of the Kocharyan-Sarkisyan tandem.  However, whether he will get the opportunity to do that, and how he will keep his promise in practice, is a moot point.