ROSES WITH SHARP THORNS

What is really going on in Georgia? It seems that everyone is wondering this - anyone with some interest in the world situation and political developments.

In brief, a chronology follows of the latest exacerbation of the situation in Georgia, a country that seems to be experiencing a second stage in its revolution.

Everything started with a sensational turn around in Mikheil Saakashvili's anti-corruption strategy, was marked by the arrest of his own press secretary Dimitri Kitoshvili who was charged with complicity in the corrupt activity of the Georgian president's former companion and defence minister, Irakli Okruashvili. Having realized that he would be arrested next, Okruashvili suddenly made sensational and critical statements about the Georgian president, accusing him of every mortal sin and of inciting the physical elimination of Badri Patarkatsishvili, a well-known Georgian businessman and oligarch who made his fortune in Russia.

Then came Okruashvili's arrest, the mysterious (but quite understandable) withdrawal of his accusations while in custody, the emergence of an anti-presidential coalition, which includes the leading opposition groups of Georgia and their demand for parliamentary election next spring. Then Patarkasishvili made a statement saying that he intends to give the opposition financial support. Rallies were held with the support of the Imedi TV channel. Then the rallies expanded, Okruashvili was expelled from the country (and settled in Munich), the demonstrations were brutally dispersed, their leaders were accused of espionage on behalf of Russia and Moscow was accused of inciting destabilization in Georgia. And finally, the authorities imposed a state of emergency on the whole country, closed all the TV channels and officially banned independent journalists from collecting information. This is an extraordinary step for a non-authoritarian state which has not yet experienced a coup, not to mention states that are at least felt to be democratic…

Having met with sharply negative reaction to his actions from his allies - democratic countries and Western institutions - Saakashvili seems to have compromised, naming 5 January as the date for snap, presidential election. In response, the united opposition of nine political parties nominated a single presidential candidate - Levan Gachechiladze, a member of the Georgian parliament and one of the opposition leaders.

It was the victory for democracy in the country after the famous "Rose Revolution", which Ame-ricans hurried to claim, that Geor-gia, and especially the White House, boasted about so much. During the shameful events in Tbilisi, the US administration reacted noticeably later than everyone else to the attack on the main achievements of the colour revolution in Georgia.

There are two more important factors which observers think played a negative role in the deterioration of the situation in Georgia. The first factor, which is quite important, but is not the main one, is the so-called Saakashvili phenomenon. Since his rise to power, the young Georgian leader has experienced a continual shortage of staff he can trust.

Personnel policy decides everything?

At various times, Saakashvili has lost confidence in many of his former companions, who have joined the current opposition, becoming the backbone of the president's opponents. It is difficult to say why: you will hardly find so many replacements in any other government. While in developed Western countries changes in the government are made for reasons clear to everyone, in Georgia the reshuffles have always had an ambiguous and often vague nature. As a result, there was no clear reaction and assessment of them. Saakashvili, who has an explosive nature and, according to many Georgian politicians and public figures this writer has spoken to, is unbalanced and often rude, has a personnel policy which is still the "Achilles heel" of the incumbent Georgian leader. Having come to power using some of the democratic freedoms allowed under Eduard Shevardnadze, who refused to hold onto the reins of power by force, and having made these freedoms his flag in the early stages, Saakashvili slowly but surely stooped to undemocratic methods of government. Many politicians and journalists can tell us about the transformation that has taken place in the same Georgian media, where journalists found it more and more difficult to work, while some independent TV channels turned into mouthpieces for the authorities.

The Georgian president was more and more irritated and did not try to hide it if someone disagreed with his position and policy. As a result, Saakashvili personally created an opposition to himself, constantly bolstering it with prominent politicians with whom he stopped cooperating due to differences of opinion. Quite often, the reasons for such splits were quite unclear and the official reasons for their resignations caused outrage. The vacuum was filled by inconspicuous and controllable people.

On recognising the clear public attitude towards his impulsive personnel policy, the Georgian president often tried to justify another sensational resignation with another sensational excuse like the exposure of a "corrupt syndicate".This was the case, for example, with Okruashvili. However, a well-known Georgian public figure told the author of this article that the country's population has an ambiguous attitude to such scandals. The reason is quite simple: having come to power, Saakashvili organized a kind of "legal racketeering", victimizing businessmen and former officials of the former Georgian elite who were forced to buy themselves out of prison and give up their businesses. It is quite likely that the Georgian president's former press secretary, Dimitri Kotoshvili, who was arrested on a charge of extorting 10 million dollars under pressure from Irakli Okruashvili, could have received the "order" from above. It is natural that those accused did not confess to "racketeering to order" and, instead, Okruashvili disclosed a whole compromising dossier against his former boss, saying that "Saakashvili's rule means immorality, injustice, repression, theft, exposure and the killing of people". The former minister also said that the main corrupt officials were the "powers that be" and that now corruption has become "acceptable only to representatives of the highest echelons of power, the family and close circle of Saakashvili".

Having witnessed Mikheil Saakashvili's first steps in the post of president to unmask Eduard Shevardnadze's "circle", the Georgian public had a clear attitude towards corruption scandals involving Saakashvili's former circle, thinking that they could have been selected as victims, especially as officials were themselves released for large amounts of money. That is to say, Saakashvili remained loyal to his own principles…

Also, as a result of the Georgian leader's actions, his former sponsor, who helped the "Rose Revolutionaries" and is now one of the opposition's main donors, businessman Bardi Patarkatsishvili, ended up in opposition. Incidentally, Patarkatsishvili will probably become Saakashvili's main rival in the 5 January election. If the election takes place, of course…

This list could go on. The most important thing here is that no-one can say for sure today who is really right in these scandalous stories: the president or his former companions? The conclusion that the Georgian public has made is quite simple: Saakashvili has no real friends, which is not very flattering, considering the Georgians' mentality. The main thing is that the president does not know how to select staff and work with them, which calls into question his activity in a state which has enormous problems in the socioeconomic and political spheres. Incidentally, let's talk about the second, political factor…

Trying to "sit on someone's back"

Having received full approval and support from the West, the new Georgian president rushed to the fight. At first, his actions were totally approved and supported by a West happy to see political reforms in this South Caucasian state, which were described as being purely democratic. Having received a mandate of popular confidence, Saakashvili, we've got to hand it to him, achieved some positive results in a short period of time. For example, even the Georgian opposition admitted that the country's population was almost totally released from bribery and bureaucracy at the lower and medium levels. I simple terms, the Georgians have forgotten, for example, about bribes in housing departments, the traffic police, tax authorities and so on. At the lower and medium levels, bribes and corruption have been almost eradicated, which cannot but please rank-and-file citizens. Of course, this could only help improve people's welfare.

However, at a higher level, for example, in the process of holding tenders announced by the government, there are still many irregular things going on and there is no transparency…

Saakashvili successfully continued the process of political-economic integration with Azerbaijan, bringing major trans-national energy projects to their logical conclusion. Incidentally, owing to this, and with support from Azerbaijan, the Georgian leader managed to provide the country with fuel when economic ties with Russia were severed and relations with the Kremlin deteriorated, leading to an energy blockade of Georgia in the early stages.

Moreover, Saakashvili managed to solve the problem of Ajaria in a short period of time, cutting the separatist knot in this region of Georgia and bringing it under the full control of the central authorities in Tbilisi.

Saakashvili has taken the path of radically strengthening the army - his pet project; as Georgian politicians say in fun, his "favourite toy, with which he did not play enough in his childhood". We've got to give him credit: having taken the path of military-political integration with the West and NATO, Saakashvili has had great success in this sphere. Moreover, the issue of Georgia's future membership of the North Atlantic alliance will be raised at the NATO summit in Budapest next summer. Looking ahead, I would say that the latest events in Georgia cast doubts on the possibility of this issue being discussed in Budapest even if the US has long, openly and clearly, said that it supports Georgia's application for membership of NATO.

But it is this "lopsided" foreign policy of the Georgian leader which has worsened relations with Russia and brought them almost to nothing. There is open and clear confrontation between Moscow and Tbilisi right now. Even when speaking about the latest events in Georgia, Saakashvili pointed the finger at Russia and expelled three Russian diplomats from the country. But we'll come to that later…

Some observers believe that it was just Saakashvili's zeal on the issue of liquidating the separatist enclaves in South Ossetia and Abkhazia that caused the current events in Tbilisi. It is not that Moscow is trying to settle scores with Saakashvili in this way: very few people believe this despite all the Georgian leader's statements and assurances. The point is that the Georgian president has decided to use his Western partners and involve them in solving his domestic political problems, which are directly linked to Russia's political interests in the region. Moscow does not even try to conceal its support for the South Ossetian and Abkhaz separatist regimes, regularly raising the issue of recognizing these unrecognized, self-styled entities if Kosovo's independence is recognized in Europe. Little Georgia decided to become a "trump card" in this risky political game being played out by Russia and Western democracies. While this irritates Moscow (which does not really like Western interference in its zone of political interest on its southern borders) at the same time, the White House is doubly or triply irritated.

Even without Georgia, the Americans and their Western partners have enough headaches in their deteriorating relations with Russia. Resorting to open confrontation with Moscow, which might result in local military clashes, Tbilisi is relying on its foreign patrons in this situation. But they are not ready to do this and do not want to become a tool in the hands of the Georgian leader in his untimely (according to the West) and dangerous games with Russia.

The Americans and Europeans have enough problems with Putin's regime. There is the issue of the Kosovo settlement and European security, related to the missile defence problem, as well as Russia's withdrawal from the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty. There is the issue of energy dependence on Russia, which Europe is trying to solve with the help of the Caspian states. The simultaneous exacerbation of the situation in one of the "reloading points" - Georgia - at a time when the West is trying to persuade Central Asian states to use exactly this route to transport energy resources, bypassing Russia, would be, to put it mildly, irrelevant. This is not to mention Iran, Iraq and the Middle East, where the West and Russia have so many problems...

Against this background, the Georgian president's attempts to shift the blame for events in Tbilisi on Moscow do not look serious. Yes, perhaps Russia had some scenario in store - for the future. But at this stage, it can use such levers of political pressure as South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Moscow is not ready for more yet as it is totally bogged down in its own "deals" with the Americans and Europeans, especially as there is no proper pro-Russian "basis" in Georgia, which could be used to change the government, as was the case in Ukraine after the "Orange Revolution" recently. You can accuse the current leaders of the Georgian opposition of working for the Kremlin only if you lose your "logical ground", have no other proper arguments and are frightened that the current Georgian opposition, as was the case with Saakashvili himself, is supported by... the same West which has apparently decided to use it to calm down its zealous ally.

Nor can Badri Patarkasishvili be pro-Russian, as Russia has issued an arrest warrant for his arrest. Irakli Okruashvili who was known as a "hawk" and who clearly irritated the Kremlin administration on the issues of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; the anti-Russian son of Georgia's first president Zviad  Gamsakhurdia - Konstantin Gamsakhurdia, whose father was deposed without Moscow's support; the former foreign minister of Saakashvili's government, Salome Zourabichvili, who is noted for her anti-Russian views; the new single presidential candidate from the opposition - Levan Gachechiladze who is regarded as Georgia's "wine king", and who suffered from the Russian embargo on the import of Georgian wine, cannot be called pro-Russian either. 

This list could go on. What's more, even Russian political experts, paradoxical as it may seem, say that a change of power in Georgia is not desirable. In their opinion, anyone from the current opposition who replaces Saakashvili will be forced to "work off" his mandate. And the best method to achieve this is to concentrate public attention on foreign enemies and threats, as well as on national problems like Ossetia and Abkhazia. So they think that a new leader might cause even more trouble than Saakashvili, who has restored constitutional order in Ajaria, is ready to do now. For Russia, Saakashvili is the "lesser evil".

Let's see what happens in January

5 January 2008 - why did the Georgian president decide to hold an election on this day? It might seem that the euphoria of the Tbilisi demonstrations will still be fresh and people will still remember that Saakashvili destroyed, in a single hour, all the democratic achievements for which people elected him quite recently - in 2004. Perhaps it is because on that day he was officially announced president? His own explanation at least raises a smile. Saakashvili explained that "five" is his lucky number, and that he always tried to get five points at school… this is quite interesting thinking for a head of state.

Nevertheless, it is quite likely that Saakashvili wants to resolve this issue as soon as possible, without waiting for the opposition to strengthen its position during a long election campaign - which actually started at the same time as the first anti-presidential rally.

Moreover, Saakashvili does not want to give the opposition a chance to reach final agreement with Western political circles and get their clear support.

The further away the presidential election, the more likely - following opposition propaganda - society will forget everything good that was achieved during his first presidential term. He understands very well that time is working against him.

At that point, his main supporter in the West - George Bush - will still be in power. By autumn, when his own presidential term expires, Bush will be engaged with his own domestic political problems.

By having his presidency confirmed in January, Saakashvili is trying to "kill two birds with one stone". On the one hand, he is trying to demonstrate to his Western partners that he is the person with a mandate to conduct negotiations, and on the other - he wants to go to the NATO summit in Budapest with a renewed mandate. The summit will solve an issue of great importance to Georgia and to Saakashvili himself - the issue of further clear and speedy integration into the West.

However, there is an important "but". This is exactly the moment when Russia might put a large dollop (not just a spoonful) of tar onto Saakashvili's "honey plate" by stirring up the situation in the South Ossetian and Abkhaz conflict zones. It cannot be ruled out that this might lead to the cancellation of the planned presidential election. Taking account of the particular features of the Georgian president's character, he might well take such a step...

As for the Georgian opposition, it is very difficult to say anything definite about its chances in the forthcoming election. There is enough time before January and, taking account of the situation in Georgia, the state of affairs might change at any time. Moreover, although the opposition has announced a single candidate, the question of unity of remains. We have to wait and see what Badri Patarkatsishvili, who has huge financial resources - a very important factor - and Irakli Okruashvili, who has won the sympathy of a certain part of the protest electorate in the recent period, will say. Both politicians have already said that they might pursue their own candidacy for the post of president.

In any case, we will follow the development of events in Georgia, where there are four serious players: Saakashvili, his opposition, Western partners and, of course, Russia.