TEHRAN 2007: BAKU TAKES THE BATON

On 16 September the second summit meeting of the Caspian states was held in the former suburban residence of the Iranian Shah "Sadabad", which lies in the northern outskirts of Tehran. Taking part were the presidents of Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan. Unlike the previous summit in Asgabat in 2002, this meeting was held in a constructive atmosphere. Even though the experts did not manage to narrow the gaps between the positions of the various sides on the fundamental issues, concerning jurisdiction over the Caspian and the use of its natural resources, the summit approved a declaration consisting of 25 points. It laid down the principles for the conduct of the littoral states as political markers for working out a future all-embracing convention on the legal status of the Caspian.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was accompanied at the summit by Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, the deputy foreign minister and presidential special envoy to talks on the status of the Caspian, Xalaf Xalafov, and also the head of the department for international relations in the presidential administration, Novruz Mammadov. In his speech to the summit, the Azerbaijani president underlined the importance of cooperation in the area of ecology. He also stressed the importance of granting free transit to those littoral states which have no outlet to the world's oceans. In view of the fact that the next meeting of the Caspian heads of state is scheduled to take place in Baku, Aliyev proposed establishing a summit secretariat here on a permanent basis.

The speech by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad was notable for its initiative to set up a Caspian organization for regional cooperation. He indirectly reiterated Tehran's previous position - unacceptable to the other Caspian states - that the Caspian should be divided into equal shares, saying that the sea's resources belong to all the littoral states. He laid particular emphasis on issues of security, saying that there should be no recourse to any increase in armaments or to the use of the military presence of other states in the region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the area of the Caspian should not be tangled up by state borders, sectors and exclusive zones. The smaller the water area they occupy, and the greater that part of the sea's depths and surface area that remain in the common usage of the Caspian states, in his view, the better. He also proposed creating a joint naval operational interaction group, KASFOR, as in the Black Sea. Putin spoke highly of the agreement among the sides not to make their own territory available in the event of any aggression or military action against any one of the Caspian states.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev suggested a review of the quota for the sturgeon catch, under which Russia receives 45 per cent, Iran 27 per cent, and Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan 28 per cent. He underlined the need to ensure freedom of transit across the Caspian, not only with regard to shipping but also to pipelines. He believes the right to take a decision to build such pipelines lies with the countries across whose sections of the sea bed it is planned to route them. He also proposed restricting naval activity in the Caspian to border patrols.

As regards the speech by Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedow, it turned out to be very general and unremarkable. He merely spoke against oil development in disputed areas, although without specifying which areas he had in mind.

The declaration approved at the summit established that only the littoral states have sovereign rights regarding the Caspian Sea and its resources. The parties are agreed that until such time as a new legal status is determined for the sea, all shipping and fishing activities should be conducted exclusively under the flags of the Caspian littoral states.

Agreement was also reached that the waters of the Caspian should be used exclusively for peaceful purposes. Precisely for this reason there has to be a drive to create and reinforce mutual trust, regional security and stability, and also to refrain from the use of military force in mutual relations. The sides stressed that they will under no circumstances allow other states to use their territory to conduct aggression or other military activities against any of the sides.

Also, the presidents acknowledged that the state of the Caspian's environment and, in particular, its sturgeon stocks, require that immediate joint decisions be taken. The summiteers said they would continue to pursue their policy of creating a contractual and legal foundation for regional cooperation in environmental protection. They reaffirmed the principle of the littoral states' responsibility for any damage caused to the natural environment of the Caspian and to each other arising from activities in the exploitation of the Caspian Sea and the development of its resources.

Further provisions in the declaration did not directly concern the problems of the Caspian, but are very relevant because of the tension surrounding Iran's nuclear programme. On this point, the summiteers felt it necessary to reiterate that they regard the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as one of the cornerstones of international security and stability. They reaffirmed the inalienable right of all states that are signatory to the treaty to pursue the research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

As can be seen from the speeches by the presidents, and also from the text of the declaration, there was unity on issues which are already regulated by existing international law or bilateral treaties. At the same time, the fundamental issues, which do not come down exclusively to the division of the Caspian's resources, remain unresolved. For example, the Russian president used the summit to propose the formation of a joint naval group, while the Kazakh president effectively proposed the demilitarisation of the sea. Nor is there unity on the question of trans-Caspian pipelines. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan regard this as a matter for the countries across whose zones it is proposed to build them. Tehran and Moscow, on the contrary, insist that agreement is needed among all the Caspian states. They base their argument on the ecological risks and on the fact that the status of the sea has not yet been determined. But the arguments do not stand up to criticism.

Firstly, no-one is able to prove that sea pipelines carry any greater risk than the shipping of oil by tankers which has already been in operation for a long time. Secondly, sea pipelines for oil and gas have existed in the Caspian for many decades, since Soviet times, and link the shore with the fields Bahar, Oil Rocks, Azari-Cirag-Gunasli and Sah Daniz. Thirdly, the biggest polluter of the Caspian is Russia, which has turned the Volga into a gigantic sewer, from which hundreds of thousands of tonnes of oil products, chemicals, industrial and agricultural waste, sewerage etc, flows into the sea every year. Fourthly, Russia has already built a gas pipeline, Blue Stream, on the bed of the Black Sea and is planning to build a second one, and it also has plans for a gas pipeline on the bed of the Baltic Sea. Moscow has not found it necessary to agree its plans with any of the littoral states, while the ecological risks stemming from the greater length, depth, inhospitable environment and unexploded munitions from the Second World War are considerably higher here.

One could gain the impression that the Tehran summit was futile, but this is far from the case. It is worth recalling that at the first summit of the Caspian heads of states in Asgabat in 2002, the leaders failed to reach agreement on anything at all. The only thing that remains in the memory is the fact that the then Turkmen leader Nyyazow, displeased with the principled position of Azerbaijan, discarded the diplomacy appropriate to the host nation and made a threatening statement that "… there is a smell of blood in the Caspian". The atmosphere of the Tehran summit was, of course, different. The very fact that the summiteers signed a declaration - a general one, but an agreed document - looks very positive. Previously, Moscow and Tehran had constantly appealed to the old treaties concluded between them at the beginning of the last century and the previous century as the legal foundation. This is now a thing of the past. The Kazakh president said that the agreements between Iran and the USSR belonged to history.

Baku's view was set out by the deputy foreign minister, Xalaf Xalafov: "The declaration has created a serious basis for continuing the talks. In the existing atmosphere we will achieve full agreement within the framework of these talks on a convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea." He said that the work of the working group at deputy foreign minister level would be continued, and that the next meeting of the working group would be held in Tehran. Touching on the question of the division of the sea bed, he said this issue would be resolved on the basis of bilateral talks.

The Russian leadership also had its own reasons for attending the Tehran summit meeting of the Caspian states. I believe the Kremlin gave its assent not least in order to combine and somehow disguise Putin's visit to Iran. In this context, it did not appear to be a direct challenge to the international community, which is very concerned at Iran's nuclear programme and at Russian-Iranian relations in the area of nuclear power and weapons. Nevertheless, Putin told the Iranian media that Russia intends to complete construction of the Bushehr nuclear power station, although he did not specify any timescale for the supply of nuclear fuel. Also, according to the Russian newspaper Kommersant, talks were held resulting in a move to supply turbo-jet engines for Iranian air-force fighters.

International observers noted that just prior to his visit to Iran, Putin met French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany. It cannot be ruled out that as a result of these meetings and conversations Putin quietly sought to persuade Ahmadinejad's intransigent government to compromise on the question of uranium enrichment. Just prior to the summit, Interfax news agency, citing informed sources, reported that the Russian security service had uncovered a plot, the aim of which was to assassinate Putin during his official visit to Iran. Nothing even remotely like this occurred, but it gave Putin a pretext to keep his visit to Iran as short as possible - after spending the night in Germany, he arrived in Tehran only in the morning, immediately before the opening of the summit.

And so it is clear that the Islamic regime of Iran won the biggest dividends from the Tehran summit. Apart from the provisions concerning security and support for the right of Iran to pursue peaceful nuclear programmes, endorsed in the declaration, Ahmadinejad's government also demonstrated to its own worried people and to the outside world that Iran is not in a state of international isolation. At the same time, Tehran did not soften its previous position one iota and is continuing to insist on a 20-per-cent share of the Caspian.

In any event, the Tehran summit has ended and the baton has been passed to Baku. This lays special responsibility on Azerbaijan - both as the host country, and as the state whose unresolved problems with Iran and Turkmenistan are impeding the conclusion of a comprehensive convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Although the Baku summit has been planned for next year, a specific date needs to be agreed and depends not only on the diaries of the Caspian heads of state but also on progress in bringing the positions of the various sides closer. Difficult talks lie ahead, but there is hope that agreement can be achieved. After all, all the Caspian states stand to gain from lasting peace, security and cooperation.