"QABALA TOURISM"

Something happened in the middle of September that was unthinkable just one year ago, even for the most paranoid: an American officer set foot inside the holy of holies of the top secret Russian defence system, the Qabala radar station. The fact that the Kremlin is ready to make such a concession to the Americans when there is a new stage in the military and political conflict between Russia and the USA would be cause for celebration, were it not for a big "but". Judging from its final outcome, the American military's visit to the radar station was a purely tourist trip, which was to be expected. 

Could the military experts' visit be interpreted in any other way when, even before they had familiarized themselves with the facility, senior officials in Washington were making statements that the Qabala radar station is unable to replace the system that the Americans are planning to install in the Czech Republic? The best that the Americans had to offer was to allow it into its own backyard, that is, to consider it as an addition to the east European anti-missile defence system. 

Of course, this does not suit Russia, which said once again via its foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, and  his namesake, Deputy Minister Sergey Kislyak, that the proposal for joint use of information from Qabala radar station does not mean that the station is entering the American missile defence system in Europe at all - this is mutually exclusive. 

Nevertheless, the "Qabala tourism" anticipates the latest round of talks under the 2+2 formula, which are to continue in mid-October in Moscow between the two countries' foreign and defence ministers. 

It looks very much as though the sides really liked visiting one another, even though this produced no result. The deputy head of the American Missile Defence Agency, Brig Gen Patrick O'Reilly, said that he had invited Russian experts to pay a return visit to the USA to look at similar radar stations in Colorado, Alaska and California. "Next week we will be testing missiles and we have invited our Russian colleagues to observe the tests," he said. "We believe in the possibility of mutually beneficial cooperation with the aim of preventing current and growing threats from ballistic missiles."

Is there still hope?

It is to neither side's advantage to kill off hope at the moment. We have often seen the Kremlin withdraw from what initially appears to be a tough position in exchange for political gain. Is it possible in this instance? It is very much the Kremlin's great power ambitions that are putting a brake on cooperation between Russia and the USA on missile defence. The Kremlin thinks that the deployment of the third echelon of the American missile defence shield is targeted exclusively against Russia and restricts its opportunities to direct missile fire at the West, no less!

Judge for yourselves - the missile defence system is mainly aimed at giving an early warning of a rocket launch and intercepting it in the air. Even supposing that the Americans really are being very cunning (which is entirely natural for them) and intend not so much to defend themselves from Iran, which even in its wildest dreams cannot picture itself with inter-continental ballistic missiles, as to watch Russian territory, then it would be much more logical for Moscow to take appropriate steps. What exactly? For example, deploy their anti-missile systems in Cuba. There is no doubt that Fidel Castro's regime would take great pleasure in embracing a Russian anti-missile system. And references to international agreements in this regard would have no juridical force, as the Americans themselves have long since been deliberately breaking all agreements and treaties in the military sphere. 

It would be easier still for Moscow to increase the number of its ballistic missiles, gracefully retargeting them towards the West, which the Kremlin has, basically, threatened to do. And in this case the 10 anti-missile installations that the Americans intend to set up in Poland would resemble a guard who intends to use a shot-gun to protect the garden from a tank. 

There is so much insincerity on both sides in all this posturing that it is time to hold a competition for political hypocrisy but with the proviso that both sides can win gold medals.

It is clear that political and not military ambitions are behind all this pushing and shoving. Everyone understands full well that the current great powers have no intention of exchanging missile salvoes, not today, tomorrow or at any other time. This page of history was closed in the late 1960s-early 1970s when everyone realized that there would be no nuclear war between the West and Russia, as no-one could physically win the war. They are not even contemplating this now. They are thinking about something else: an arms race is primarily an economic war that will determine now and in the future who is first and who is second. This is a war of political ambitions, a fight for the sake of fighting, which has become an end in itself, long since replacing paranoid efforts "to knock down the enemy state with a nuclear wave". 

The problem is that Russia is a state with an as yet not fully formed psyche which today is still on the road to global, human self-identification. This is a state that is only 16 years old after the collapse of the Soviet Union, that is going through the same psychological dislocation as adolescents at this age with the inferiority complexes, bravado and current desire for self-assertion. And the Americans are playing beautifully on this weak spot, easily dragging it into another venture, this time with an arms race, which is aimed at breaking the economic backbone that has only just started to be formed.

Going back to the possibilities for cooperation on missile defence between the USA and Russia which still exist, it has to be said that it can become a reality only if the Kremlin gives up its current position.

Cooperation is possible if, first, Moscow realizes clearly that it will not be able to make the Americans give up their plans and that it will be better to be closer to the new system and have information and certain levers of influence on events than to be left aside.

Second, if sober pragmatism takes the upper hand amongst Russian politicians, founded on an understanding of the lack of economic potential to join a lengthy phase in the arms race, which could end in the same collapse as in the USSR - after all, the lessons of history should be learnt eventually! 

Third, if Moscow manages to secure the powerful support of the European community that is seriously concerned at the new stage in the American-Russian conflict.

Fourth, if the sides agree on a mutually acceptable scenario under which the Russian establishment can move from its current harsh position on European missile defence so as not to lose face both abroad and at home, which is very important for the Putinites with the parliamentary and presidential elections coming up. It's possible but - 

Hard to believe

If only because the American administration and its military and industrial complex did not start this enterprise just to let Russia turn from a dangerous path so easily. The Russians themselves realize perfectly well that a concession on this very important issue will automatically lead to a loss of authority and, accordingly, concessions on all political fronts.

However, the Kremlin must understand a simple truth: at present Russia is in no state to oppose the USA and the West which are many years ahead. Hydrocarbons will be no help here. Russia has to decide on a new gambit, to win time, directing all its efforts on improving the economy. This will be the most important and strongest argument in political games in 20 years. A Russia with a powerful economy would tomorrow be able to regain the positions it has lost today, if you like by analogy with Kutuzov's temporary withdrawal during the war in 1812. If it implements a regulated, long-term strategy, nothing can stop Russia from regaining its lost status as a superpower - neither today's concessions in Europe, nor losses of position in neighbouring states, including in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Only if it powerfully reinforces its economy and gains a new international image of a civilized, humane and truly democratic state, will Russia be able automatically, without making any particular effort, to become a centre of the world again, a pole if you like.

As for the current situation, may I repeat that I have no illusions about the possibility of equal cooperation between Moscow and the West, including on missile defence. This is, first of all, not to the political advantage of the Americans themselves. If it does happen tomorrow, then it will probably just be temporary as happened over the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty and many other strategic international agreements. The West and the USA, in particular, realizing their superiority, have always dumped Russia - forgive the crude expression. It is no coincidence that just a few days ago, straight after the Americans visited the Qabala radar station, reports appeared in the press that the Americans intend to establish missile defence systems in Georgia. The news wires reported that American specialists "who last week studied the possibility of using the Qabala radar station in Azerbaijan" have been in Georgia for several days. According to the Georgian media, the US experts are now studying the possibility of building a radar station similar to Qabala in Ajaria. The head of the Georgian Air Navigation Service, Giorgi Karbelashvili, neither confirmed nor denied this theory on 25 September. "Information appeared in the press about talks held with the Americans on deploying elements of the USA's missile defences in Georgia and the installation of some technology. Of course, the Americans are visiting for a reason and for a week the Americans are studying the possibilities of extending air navigation capacity in Georgia," Karbelashvili said, noting that the American experts "are auditing the capacities for air navigation in Batumi and they are impressed with what they have seen". 

"We did not have to wait long for a result from this information. If a radar station is located in Georgia as part of the American missile defence system, it could be used to monitor Russia's strategic forces based in the European part of the country," a former missile defence corps commander, Nikolay Rodionov, told Interfax. "Such a station would, of course, present a threat to the security of our country, as it could be used to track launches of our strategic missiles based in the country's European territory," the general explained. Rodionov said that if the USA does decide to build a radar station in Georgia, it would probably be a high precision station working on a centimetre wave band. "It cannot be ruled out that antennas could be installed next to the radar, looking both towards Iran and to the north, that is, towards Russian territory," the military expert said.

He also did not discount the possibility that the USA would continue its practice of building its missile defence system radars around Russia's borders. "In this way the USA is showing a clear lack of respect for our country's security interests," Rodionov said. This information was, of course, denied by the US embassy in Georgia which said that these two American missions to Qabala and Georgia had nothing in common. "The group of American experts have nothing to do with the possible deployment in Europe of elements of the US anti-missile defence system," the US embassy said on 26 September. "This was a pre-planned visit to study the technical capacity of Batumi airport and its readiness to accept aeroplanes making a possible emergency landing," Georgia Online reported. 

However, first of all it cannot be discounted that having said "A", the Americans will go on to say "B" too and in a short time we will witness the latest Russian-American political scandal, caused by a statement by the USA and Georgia of their intention to build the latest missile defence installation on Georgian territory, and put a couple of American bases there while they're at it. Who today can rule out such a turn of events, especially with the USA actively lobbying for Georgia to join NATO and Georgia itself openly declaring its readiness to develop military cooperation in any way, including with the Americans, especially if this will pique Russia?

Second, if the danger of the Kremlin's compliance over the European missile defence system really does loom for the Americans, the White House will probably go for another manoeuvre with the sole aim of provoking the Russians to new demarches and, in the final analysis, an arms race. It is not important that the real reason for this is the utter stupidity of opposing the "threat of Iranian ballistic missiles" when Iran is as far from creating these missiles as the Earth is from Mars. The final goal is what is most important. And the American's final goal is all too obvious. 

But hope springs eternal.