HEIRS TO THE POPULAR ASSEMBLY OF KIEVAN RUS

There's less than a month left until the extraordinary parliamentary election in Ukraine - it is scheduled for 30 September. Candidates from 21 parties are vying for 450 seats in parliament, and of them, the Our Ukraine - People's Self-Defence pro-presidential bloc, the Party of Regions, the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc (YTB), and the Communist and Socialist parties have chances of crossing the 3-per-cent threshold required to get through to the Supreme Council. The Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc promises Ukrainians a "Breakthrough" - this is the name of its election manifesto. The posters of the Party of Regions place emphasis on social stability. The Our Ukraine - People's Self-Defence pro-presidential bloc calls for deputies' immunity to be abolished. The Communist Party of Ukraine in its posters promises to prevent dictatorship, while the Socialist Party, which is close to it in terms of ideology, is set to fight to expand the rights of local government bodies. As should have been expected, the Party of Regions is the most active one in eastern and southern Ukraine, the nostalgic Communist Party is "starting fire" in the south and Crimea, and socialists have launched their campaign in central Ukraine. In addition, the YBT and Our Ukraine - People's Self-Defence are "fighting" for votes in central and western Ukraine.

Political analysts, however, believe that the main struggle for a majority of seats in parliament, and therefore for the formation of the government, will unfold between the Party of Regions led by acting Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and YBT leader Yuliya Tymoshenko. According to the most recent public opinion polls, 33 per cent of the voters give their preference to the Party of Regions, 17 per cent of the respondents - to the YTB and 12 per cent - to the Our Ukraine - People's Self-Defence pro-presidential bloc.

True, for the time being one can only guess about the distribution of political forces in the Supreme Council - it cannot be ruled out that voters' sympathies and antipathies will yet change more than once. Thus, for example, Yushchenko's opponents have decided to make a "knight's move". A session of the parliament that was dissolved by Viktor Yushchenko has opened in Kiev at the initiative of the speaker of the Supreme Council of fifth convocation, Oleksandr Moroz. At that, the initiator of the session, Moroz, behaves as if there is no talk about any early election whatsoever and parliament continues to work as normal. The speaker made plans for the deputies for the entire week: on 4 September the Supreme Council will work in a plenary mode, and from 5 to 7 September the deputies will be working in committees and factions. Moroz believes that the parliament of this convocation will be working until newly-elected deputies are sworn in. For this reason, plans have already been set for the entire fourth session of the current Supreme Council: the agenda includes about 640 issues.

At the session of the Supreme Council, the government coalition (Party of Regions, Socialist Party and Communist Party) plans to adopt decisions on abolition of privileges for people's deputies and to make changes to the constitution on the abolition of deputies' immunity, i.e. to fulfil the most attractive promises given by Yushchenko's supporters. However, many analysts are confident that the attempt to resume the work of the Supreme Council in the current situation is most of all reminiscent of the calling of the "congress of people's deputies" that was opened already after the USSR collapsed by "hard-headed" communists like Sazha Umalatova. The pro-presidential camp recalls that the current Supreme Council is illegitimate. Back in the spring, supporters of President Yushchenko and Yuliya Tymoshenko resigned as deputies and annulled their electoral lists, which automatically deprived the Supreme Council of a quorum. The dissolution of the Supreme Council took place on the basis of a decree issued by Yushchenko on 5 June which was signed after a meeting with Moroz and Yanukovych.

The Our Ukraine - People's Self-Defence pro-presidential bloc states that if the speaker and the prime minister gather their deputies for the session, then the bloc will try to get them brought to book for wasteful spending of budget money. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko stated that the Supreme Council of fifth convocation may in no circumstance hold plenary sessions. The president said that "any decision by this council is illegitimate; it does not have any practical force or any political effect. I dot the i's and cross the t's. Under the constitution, the Supreme Council of Ukraine of fifth convocation is illegitimate. Actions by people's deputies going beyond the law will receive a legal assessment. I am confident that the public will voice condemnation too," Yushchenko explained. Against this background, Oleksandr Moroz (as analysts recall, it was his unexpected defection from the camp of supporters of the president to Yanukovych's coalition that allowed the latter to become prime minister) already hints that the next composition of parliament will launch impeachment procedures against the incumbent Ukrainian president. He said that if any branch of power is trying to take on the functions of another branch of power, then, according to legal definitions, that is usurpation of power for which responsibility, including criminal, is envisaged. "And, obviously, if this happens in reality, the election takes places and the eligibility of parliament is recognized, then the new parliament will deal with this issue because what is being done in Ukraine today cannot stay unpunished," Moroz believes.

However, that Viktor Yanukovych and his supporters will get a majority in the new parliament is, though sufficiently clear, still not guaranteed. It is all the more difficult to say whether they will go for such radical measures as impeaching the president if we take into account the fact that the period of political confrontation with the early election and re-election has been protracted beyond measure anyway. And a new spiral of confrontation may push away from Yanukovych his supporters from among those who are called "the bog" in political circles. As professionals explain, in any society there is about 20 per cent of the voters who will vote for party A in any case and the same number of those who will vote for party B in any case too. There is also 60 per cent of those who vote for the rightists in one election and for the leftists in another one and thus provide for change of power. And precisely this "bog" may deny support to Yanukovych if the degree of political tension in the country soars again owing to his actions.

Another thing is understandable too. The confrontation between Yanukovych and Yushchenko, the unexpected manoeuvre by Moroz and the defection of supporters of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko from the Council are no more than the "tip of the iceberg". After the "orange revolution", the political process in Ukraine has been developing with cosmic speed. The parliament elected in 2006 today really does not reflect the distribution of forces in society - just like the Russian parliament in 1993 which many remember. However, what happened in Russia - with 150 victims, shooting from tanks and an attempted storming of the television centre - is developing in Ukraine as part of a normal political process envisaged by the laws and the constitution of the country.

In addition to it all, precisely today in Kiev they remember their democratic and parliamentary traditions - from the popular assembly of the ancient Ukrainian state - the Kievan Rus, Magdeburg law in major cites of Ukraine including Kiev, the practice of electing hetman in the Cossack state - Zaporozhskaya Sech, to the 1710 constitution by Pilip Orlik which was the first constitution in Europe at that time, and the People's Republic of Ukraine in 1917-20.

Furthermore, Viktor Yushchenko openly said in the run-up to the election: "I will not analyse what political consequences the 30 September election may have. I can guarantee you another thing - political forces that have other principles of working will come into the session hall. Dialogue and atmosphere of negotiating process on any topical issues around which pan-national discussion forms will return to the session hall. And therefore, when we are today assessing those political events that are taking place in Ukraine, I want to say categorically that I assess them as a positive thing in the establishment of Ukrainian democracy." This is more serious than it may seem: in fact, the president gives his vis-a-vis an opportunity to start the game from scratch and by rules. And if this call is left unanswered, the Party of Regions may lose its main trump card - the popularity it has had.