QABALA GAMBIT

The deployment of the American missile defence shield in Eastern Europe is still on the agenda and likely to remain there for a long time. Intensive talks are under way on the possibility of the USA and Russia jointly using Azerbaijan's Daryal radar station located in Qabala. Few seem to believe that this will happen. Neither the Kremlin, which insists on the joint use of the radar station only on the condition that the Americans give up the missile defence system in the Czech Republic and Poland. Nor the Americans, who understand that Moscow's proposal is just a "political gambit" - the sacrifice of a piece on a chessboard in order to gain a positional advantage - and that there cannot be any talk of giving up the missile defence shield in the Czech Republic and Poland.

Two weeks ago, in early September, there was to have been a trilateral meeting of experts from Azerbaijan, Russia and the USA in Baku to discuss prospects for cooperation. However, for various reasons the trilateral meeting was re-scheduled for 15 September. A joint visit is planned to the radar station in Qabala which Russia has leased from Azerbaijan until 2012. This is what was announced at the latest meeting between the Russian and US presidents at the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Australia.

However, at bilateral talks in the Russian embassy in Paris on Monday the US delegation submitted to the Russians new proposals on cooperation in missile defence, Agence France Presse reported. According to Assistant Secretary John Rood, who leads the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, Russia agreed to study the US proposals. The next round of talks is to take place in Moscow on 3 October 2007. "We would like to start a more detailed conversation about individual components (of missile defence systems)," Rood said while commenting on the outcome of the talks. The representative of the State Department did not go into details of the American proposals, but said that Washington is ready to "use Russian capabilities" for missile defence and is ready to incorporate them in a joint missile defence plan. 

Although the details of the US proposals have not been made public, it can be presumed from the gist of what was said that the USA is proposing a compromise: there will be a missile defence system in Eastern Europe, but the Russian radar stations will also be included in the joint monitoring system. But will Russia agree to this? It flatly rejects the prospect of having American anti-missile systems in the immediate vicinity of its territory and only offers its own capabilities if the Czech-Polish system is cancelled.

The situation is controversial. On the one hand the sides realize that the chances for joint use of the Daryal radar station are practically zero in the format on which Russia is insisting. A high ranking Russian military official recently said this. The USA has also made its position clear. If we add to this that Russia in future will leave Qabala, as well as all radar stations located beyond Russian borders, as Gen-Col Vladimir Popovkin, the commander of the Russian Federation's Space Troops, has recently said, it becomes completely unclear what the subject of the negotiations is. The radar station that will soon be put into operation near Armavir will have a more powerful tracking system and will completely replace the Qabala station. In other words, it is already clear that our Daryal is set to become redundant. It also has the disadvantage of being close to the Iranian border which means that if Tehran launches missiles Daryal will only be able to track them briefly. The Russian proposal of jointly using the Armavir radar station, which is further from Iran, seems more attractive. But will the Russians agree on joint use of such a vital, strategic and secret facility, located in Russia itself, unless they receive from the Americans guarantees of giving up missile defence in Eastern Europe.

Negotiations still continue

What is their meaning? There is only one reason: the sides do not want a direct confrontation and are "putting a brave face on a sorry business". They are avoiding a blunt announcement of another loop of the arms race, even though a political confrontation has effectively been in place for months and on different fronts: from the energy sector to the missile defence shield and the Kosovo problem. The sides have so far failed to reach a common denominator on any of the issues. There is not even a hint of their positions being close on at least some individual elements of these issues.

For Moscow the current talks on missile defence have certain significance. Their ultimate objective is not to persuade the Americans because everyone knows that is impossible. First, although Russia has built up its economic muscle recently, it knows full well that it is not time yet to begin a full-blown arms race as it is not physically ready for it. The official start of an arms race would only mean a complete subversion of economic stability. Second, the Kremlin is taking full advantage of the negotiations to sow discord in the ranks of the USA's European allies who are not too happy with Moscow's readiness to target its missile at them. Third, the game over the missile defence shield has to be played slowly in order not to appear domestically to have suffered a shameful defeat to "Western imperialists" in the run-up to the elections. A controlled crisis in relations with the USA allows the Russian ruling elite to score points and increase its political capital at home.

The position of the American administration is similar to Russia's. It also needs to create a semblance of dialogue in order not to weaken further its positions domestically in the run-up to the elections. Furthermore, the administration has a major headache in the shape of a defiant and stubborn Congress. Moreover, the White House is not at all amused by the resentment of European states and by the threat of a split in the holy of holies, the NATO military alliance. And there is no reason to push Russia too hard toward a possible military and political alliance with fearsome China which goes from strength to strength and which is also unhappy with the policy of Potomac "hawks". 

Therefore, an increasing but torpid crisis in the relationship is beneficial for both sides.

Does Baku need the "Qabala umbrella"? 

Like it or not, Baku has got embroiled in these political games which can only give the Azerbaijani authorities a headache. They are in effect threatening the balanced policy which the Azerbaijani government has been pursing for many years. This threat mostly comes from the response of the West, Russia and Iran to steps taken by Azerbaijan. To be frank, it is not a pleasant dilemma. 

Until today Azerbaijan has skillfully balanced the interests of all three sides and risen to the challenge. But the main test is still ahead. It will come when a final and irrevocable decision on the fate of the Qabala radar station is made. 

Option one. Russia and the USA reach agreement on joint use of the Qabala radar station. It is hard to believe it and this is the least likely course of events, but hypothetically it is still possible. The deployment of US servicemen in Azerbaijan will be directed against Iran exclusively and will naturally cause a harsher response from Tehran. We have so far had to rely on Russia's aid to somehow deal with Iran. To a degree, Azerbaijan will have a chance not to spoil its relations with Iran irrevocably thanks to Russia's mediation, as Moscow will guarantee that this facility will not be used for aggression against Iran.

But this only concerns the initial stage. It is clear that Putin inviting Americans to the northern border of Iran was never going to be welcomed in Tehran. Yet, so far Tehran's response has been limited because the idea of an anti-Iranian coalition of Moscow and Washington seemed implausible. But this was at the first stage. It is not clear what Tehran's response will be as its nuclear technology develops and if the Iranian regime accuses Russia and Azerbaijan of "betraying friendship". There can be no doubt that if Russia and the USA act in concert, Tehran will accuse Moscow of committing all kinds of sins and will list it as a foe.

The least we can expect in this situation is that the border between Iran and Naxcivan will be closed and the electricity supply to the exclave, completely isolated from the rest of Azerbaijan, will be cut off. There will be an economic blockade and Iran will step up its support for Armenia. Let me repeat it, this is the least.

History has shown that Russia can easily turn on its strategic partner, as it has done many times. Iran could find itself to be next on this "blacklist".

Option two. After some time Russia wraps up its operations in Qabala and is supplanted by the Americans. Without the Russians the Qabala radar station will be just a huge pile of reinforced concrete because it has been built for Russian technology and cannot be operated without it. Hence, the Americans will need their own stations and bases. This would mean an open confrontation with the mullah regime and Iran will never forgive that.

Certainly, there will be some economic and political rewards from the USA, maybe even on Karabakh (rather unlikely - author). But there will also be the same amount of political and economic losses. Relations with Russia will worsen, as will relations with Muslim countries in which there are people who are positively inclined to sabotage and terrorist operations.

Option three. The USA and Russia do not reach agreement. When the time comes, Russia retreats to Armavir and refuses to continue leasing Daryal in Qabala. But the American troops do not come to Azerbaijan because Baku does not want it. As a result, Baku loses one of its major bargaining chips in political dealings with Russia. On the one hand, Azerbaijan's independence apparently becomes stronger. But on the other, Baku loses some socioeconomic advantages against the backdrop of the expansion of energy projects which at the time will reach a higher level. The country will become more vulnerable to terrorism risks because from now on Azerbaijan's activities will be countered by, to put it mildly, a more zealous Russia.

Still, we believe that the third option is the most preferable for Azerbaijan, even though the first option also has advantages: it drastically increases the country's importance for both Russia and the West. It is not to be forgotten that, as Russia says, the joint use of the Qabala radar station is only possible if America gives up on the European missile defence shield. Still, should Moscow leave aside its demands and agree to cooperate with the Americans, Azerbaijan will be presented with a golden chance to use assistance from the two major powers and "persuade" Armenia to return the occupied territories. Compared with the missile defence system in Europe and easing the confrontation with the USA, the issue of partnership with Armenia is not that important for Russia. However, let me repeat that it is difficult to believe in the implementation of the first scenario.

We too could benefit from Latvia's experience

The times ahead will be strategically important for Azerbaijan which will have to meticulously analyse each step, every word and every action. Under advantageous circumstances and if done well, playing on the balance of interests of the major powers will be more profitable than siding with one of them. However, this is also the most difficult and dangerous path when it is not possible to rely on anyone but yourself. It is especially dangerous when playing with such different and completely opposite states as the USA, Russia and Iran and when it concerns global issues. 

There is of course the possibility of following the path of Georgia by becoming Americanized and giving the USA a free hand in our land, so that Washington will care about our and its own interests in terms of military and political security. But the prospect of becoming unfriendly with Iran and Russia, given all the political and economic ramifications, is not attractive. Iran is still ruled by a mullah regime and Russia is also "alive and kicking" and overflowing with ambitions. We have much to lose in this case.

At one stage in its history Azerbaijan managed to "squeeze" out of the Qabala radar station factor a lot of political and economic advantages. This opportunity is still there. But to all appearances the Qabala gambit is nearing its logical conclusion and what remains to be done is not to make a mistake and to get as much as possible out of this. The radar station itself was never a blessing and its existence has also resulted in many problems for Azerbaijan. As they say, you can have no more of a cat than her skin.

I believe that in time we will do with the Qabala radar station what the Latvians did after the demise of the USSR. Our descendants will certainly not be unhappy with that. Dismantling the station will be the single biggest positive result we achieved during the entire period of its operation.