SCO THERAPY

On 16 August, Bishkek hosted another summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Leaders of six members of the organization - Kyrgyz President (currently chairman) Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Chairman of the PRC Hu Jintau, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and Uzbek President Islam Karimov - gathered to discuss the current state of affairs and future objectives of the "Shanghai club". Observer countries were represented by the presidents of Iran and Mongolia, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Nambaryn Enkhbayar, the Minister of Oil and Natural Gas of India Murli Deora and Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri. Also attending the summit as distinguished guests were the Presidents of Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, Gurbanguli Berdimukhammedov and Hamid Karzai. Following negotiations and the signing of a number of documents, participants travelled to the Chebarkul shooting range, in Russia's Chelyabinsk Region, to observe the final phase of the Peace Mission 2007 joint anti-terror exercise.

Sharp air 

It is only natural that such an impressive forum, held in the very heart of Central Asia, to attract the keen attention of the international community. From the outset, observers were interested in two questions: whether there would be talk of a possible expansion of the organization and whether the Shanghai club would officially transform into a military and political alliance which would turn it into an adversary of NATO. Neither of these things happened, but this did not make the life of observers any easier. To understand their reservations, it might be a good idea to turn to the leading Western media. The British Times, for instance, in speculating on "whether Russia can succeed in establishing an organization capable of competing with NATO", gave the following answer: "to a much greater extent than could have been imagined last year and much more actively than Europe and the USA could be comfortable with…" Also, while pointing out that SCO leaders "are displaying more determination than usual this year", the paper indirectly criticized the US president: "This is a clear demonstration of common interests - the fresh, sharp air of cold war, which is in contrast to the smell of the BBQ and summer recreation sights to which Bush treats his potential friends". The German S?ddeutsche Zeitung agrees with the British paper. It is sure that the "political orientation of the Shanghai group is clearly anti-Western, though this is not manifested in official statements". The fact that the SCO has far-reaching plans is acknowledged by an expert at the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, Ariel Cohen. "While the USA is facing major difficulties in Iraq and is preoccupied with Iran's nuclear programme, the key SCO partners - Russia and China - may burn US fingers in Central Asia. The USA certainly remembers that, following a 2005 SCO summit, the Americans were unceremoniously driven out of their air base in Uzbekistan," Cohen told the BBC's Morning programme.

And although Western officials are not making any official statements yet, it appears that Vladimir Putin's assurances that "The SCO is an organization dealing with political and economic issues, with more focus on the economic agenda" are not widely believed.

Priorities 

Members of the Shanghai club are indeed highlighting economic cooperation. At the same time, while analyzing the "subtleties" of such "communication", we can discern both political and military components in their unity. However, let's deal with things in the right order.

The summit reached agreement that the autumn meeting of SCO ministers in Tashkent would consider joint energy and transport projects between member countries. The suggestion of Nursultan Nazarbayev to establish an "energy club" (involving leading bodies and experts) evoked particular interest. Such a club could become "one of the key elements of Asian energy strategy" and some sort of a "think tank" for the Shanghai club. This aspect was also stressed in the final declaration of the organization. In particular, the document says that mutually beneficial partnership in different energy sectors could contribute to security and stability both within the SCO and globally.

It stands to reason that the West is rather wary of such plans, because the Shanghai Group of Six includes both major energy producers and consumers. The hydrocarbon reserves concentrated in Central Asia are of particular interest in this respect, and while the USA would like to receive oil and gas from this region by-passing Russia, Moscow is doing its utmost to secure maximum control over these energy flows. In this respect, the agreements within the SCO pose a certain threat to US and EU plans in Central Asia.

Meanwhile, in addition to economic matters, the SCO has become much more active staying aware of political developments in member countries. Thus, the parliamentary election in Kazakhstan came hot on the heels of the Bishkek summit. "We often encounter biased assessments from OSCE election observation missions in the post-Soviet area. Therefore, we would like to have a more impartial picture. Thus the participation of SCO observers in the Kazakh election is seen as a positive sign," the director of the Institute of Russian National Strategy, Mikhail Remizov, told KazInform. No comment…

The military manoeuvres of the Shanghai club held on the Chebarkul shooting range in Russia's Chelyabinsk Region are also worth noting. According to the cover story of the exercise, servicemen from Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were supposed to fight separatists in country A to foil their plans to overthrow the government (France Press said the plan of the exercise very much resembled the developments in Andijan in 2005). Members of the organization were thus developing a joint rapid reaction system. The appearance of the brave soldiers inspired Russian President Vladimir Putin so much that he immediately decided to resume the flights by the country's strategic aviation which had been halted in 1992. All this can be seen both as another message to the West and as a hint to other partners in the SCO. It goes something like: "There are increasing indications that we are becoming stronger. And it is always in one's interests to be friends with the powerful…"

However, despite the joint muscle flexing and the seemingly promising future for the establishment of a military and political bloc, members of the SCO are categorically brushing off such a possibility and pointing out that their interaction in the military sphere boils down to counter-terrorist measures. It appears that member-countries may be content with merely talking about the significance they could achieve by "tying the military knot" and expanding their ranks at the expense of India, Pakistan, Mongolia, Iran, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. A whole array of political analysts is working to create a good image. They are busy pointing to the nuclear arsenals, human resources and huge territories of both present and potential members of the SCO. At the same time, they somehow forget to add that if such a military alliance came into being and declared a guarantee of protection for the national interests of all member-states, as has NATO, it would have to deal with many problems - starting with Iran's nuclear programme to the Kashmir conflict and the terrorists sitting on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

In the meantime it is clear that economic alliances in the modern world can be a lot stronger and more powerful than military ones. This statement holds true for the SCO. As mentioned earlier, the West cannot be indifferent to Russia and China strengthening their positions in the countries of Central Asia which reek of the enchanting odour of hydrocarbons. It is natural that Moscow and China are capitalizing on the proximity of their borders, common history and problems. The USA and Europe are far away, while Russia and China are close at hand.

At the same time, US pundits have observed that the Shanghai organization and co., while solving the issues facing them, can easily do this without the involvement of Washington. As a matter of fact, the USA has failed to secure the status of observer. There was barely any mention of Washington at the Bishkek summit. On the other hand, much was being said about the opportunities and benefits that lie ahead for club members.

Namely, Afghanistan was clearly interested in the statement by the Shanghai G6 that the country, ravaged by incessant war, needs economic assistance or, to be exact, economic rehabilitation. This mainly concerns the country's peasants, who have long been growing poppies rather than agricultural crops. Also, Vladimir Putin and Nursultan Nazarbayev suggested establishing a "security belt" around Afghanistan, which may serve as a pass for Turkmenistan, which shares a long border with Afghanistan, to the SCO. This is where Turkmenistan's energy and transit capabilities may come in handy.

Pakistan is making no secret of its interest in the Shanghai club, either. "The participation of our country in the SCO will promote harmony and stability within such a large family of nations. In Pakistan they can always find a reliable friend and mature partner," Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri told the Pakistani newspaper DAWN. At the same time, Pakistan is hoping that "close cooperation with the Shanghai organization will help stamp out terrorism". Two US presidential hopefuls have recently stated that they would introduce American troops to Pakistan if they were elected president because Pakistan is not capable of independently coping with Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants in the north-western parts of the country. It is obvious that the current Pakistan is too closely bound to Washington to seek admission to the SCO, but Islamabad cannot resist the temptation of brandishing at least some alternative in the Washington's face, and this does seem quite logical. The same holds true for India which, despite its "US-approved" nuclear programme, is experiencing energy hunger. Therefore, Delhi is interested in securing access to Central Asian resources and the timing of its SCO appearance is quite opportune.

Iran seems to be happy with the opportunity to speak from such a high platform. While the UN SC may tighten sanctions against Tehran and Washington is unilaterally trying to punish countries cooperating with the "axis of evil", the world media are speculating on whether Iran will be admitted to the SCO. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, according to many observers, behaved quite correctly in Bishkek. Having said that Iran was "expressing its readiness to develop cooperation with the SCO and its members", he also made a hint about "certain countries which are used to speaking the language of force and threats".

"Friendly" contradiction 

It is obvious that it is impossible to draw a single line under the aspirations of SCO countries and their partners. If we look closely, it becomes clear that the Shanghai game of cards targets several directions at the same time: a) stand-off between the USA and China; b) stand-off between Russia and the USA; c) stand-off between China and Russia; d) stand-off between countries of Central Asia on the one hand and Russia and China on the other; and e) disagreements between countries of Central Asia.

Whereas the first two play into the hands of the Shanghai club, the last three may seriously sully it over time. In essence, Russia and China are competing for access to the energy resources of Central Asia, and this factor must always be remembered. The countries have had many problems in the past and such problems may appear in the future as well. Some Russian experts are already quite alarmed at the prospect that the rapidly developing China (full of desire to develop further, over-populated and militarily strong) may start looking at the emptying territories of Russia which is desperately trying to ward off a demographic crisis. Hu Jintau and Vladimir Putin do not agree on the main vector of SCO development either. Whereas Moscow would like to strengthen security, Beijing, infatuated with the prospect of growth, is more interested in economic cooperation. China and Russia diverge on their Iran agendas, too: while for Moscow games with Tehran are yet another way of putting pressure on Washington, Beijing is in no hurry to exchange terse rhetoric with Washington and looks upon Tehran as a source of energy supplies.

As for the countries of Central Asia, they cannot but understand that first violin in the SCO is to be played by Russia and China, while they have to put up with the role of junior brothers, although this is not acknowledged officially. Lastly, Central Asian countries have many problems with each other, which could become even more serious in the future. For instance, a fight for water resources may easily flare up between Central Asian republics. Familiarization with regional news shows that the problem has existed for a long time and is tending to worsen. And this is just one example. 

It is therefore possible to draw the following conclusion. It is beyond doubt that the SCO has grown beyond regional status and is gradually turning into a very powerful alliance of interests, but there is still much to be done to achieve real unity, especially military and political. It may well be, however, that things will never get that far. The Shanghai club is faring quite well already: it is skilfully teasing the West and talking about large-scale economic projects. The rest may follow if necessary.