TO SPITE ENEMIES AND PLEASE FRIENDS

It seems that an early parliamentary election has managed to resolve the political crisis in Turkey in a democratic manner. Voters confirmed and even demonstrated greater support for the Justice and Development Party led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It is the first time in many years that the ruling party has obtained such an impressive election success; winning almost 50 per cent of the vote.

The Justice and Development Party has shown that its emergence and establishment in Turkish politics was not the consequence of a favourable situation, but the result of a considered policy that answers modern challenges and of skilful management. It is no surprise that the party and its leader Erdogan have been the subjects of intense study by local and foreign analysts. Some of them are still frightening people with the threat of an Islamic coup and inevitable damage to Turkey's secular basis. Others assert that the party is developing in a conservative centrist direction and advise against pinning on labels, and encouraging study of the phenomenon.

So what is the Justice and Development Party - which will rule the country in the years to come - in reality? The answer to this question is of great importance to Azerbaijan as well, because Turkey is a natural ally and strategic partner of our country. 

The creation and current success of the Justice and Development Party is rightly linked to Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Coming from a poor background, Erdogan studied at a religious school and graduated from Marmara University's Faculty of Economics and Administrative Science. Like many other leaders of the Justice and Development Party, Erdogan became active in politics with the Welfare Party led by Necmettin Erbakan. When the Welfare Party formed a government, Erdogan had already been mayor of Istanbul for two years.  One year later, the Islamic government left power, following pressure exerted on them by the president and the military. The Welfare Party and its successor the Fazilat Party were banned by a Constitutional Court ruling. Erdogan was imprisoned in 1999 on charges of inciting religious hatred (he had publicly read an Islamic poem including the lines: "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers...") He was sentenced to 10 months in jail, but was freed after four. 

The Islamic forces of Turkey split in summer 2001. Having rejected Necmettin Erbakan's one-sided orientation to the Islamic world, Erdogan, with a group of supporters, set up the Justice and Development Party. Turkey's accession to the European Union was declared the party's goal. The new party has come to resemble the Christian Democratic parties existing in many European and South American countries. One of the party's ideologists, ex-Speaker of Parliament Bulent Arinc, described the party as "Conservative Democratic". He noted that Islam is not the party's direct ideological platform.

Erdogan and his companions-in-arms focused on the problems of Turkey's crisis-ridden economy, on de-bureaucratization of state management and on the struggle against corruption. They wanted to broaden the party's electoral basis by winning over moderate voters who were disappointed in the traditional parties. The party did not confine itself to the protection of Islamic values, and declared its support for broad democratic rights and freedoms. For example, alongside support for women's right to enter government offices and schools wearing headscarves, the party pursued a policy of involving women in politics. The party had more female MPs than any other secular party and not all of these MPs wear headscarves.  But the main plank in the party's election platform was the aspiration to have Turkey admitted to the European Union and the protection of private business interests in Turkey. 

There are two groups in the Turkish economy that have conflicting interests. The first group is the cumbersome and inefficient state sector which is oriented towards the domestic market. The leaders of this sector are united in unions of industrialists and entrepreneurs and they support the country's traditional parties. The second group is the dynamic private sector which is oriented towards manufacturing goods which are competitive in foreign markets. Representatives of the second group were displeased with the government's inept interference in the economy and with corruption. They formed a new union of industrialists and entrepreneurs and gave lavish financial support to the Justice and Development Party, playing an important role in the party's victory in the general election.

Erdogan's government managed to build a new economic model which Western experts described as the "economy of Islamic Protestantism". Government maintenance costs were reduced and corruption was curbed. Transparent conditions were established for business to ensure its safety. In addition, the party organized an effective propaganda campaign. Hard but well-paid work was described as pleasing to God, whereas the ineffective use of capital (e.g.  freezing it in bank accounts) was declared sinful.

As a result of this policy, Turkey's GDP doubled and inflation reduced threefold. The country's foreign debts reduced significantly and its gold and currency reserves reached a record level. The party's achievements were impressive, not only in the macroeconomic sphere, but also in the social sphere. Pensions and salaries increased. The state policy of social security was supplemented by the charitable activities of Islamic businessmen. The latter fund technical schools and universities, they pay for the education of talented children in Western universities and allocate funds for the construction of infrastructure. All these programmes of Islamic solidarity, implemented with the party's involvement, have undoubtedly encouraged people's support for the party.

The general outline of the socio-economic policy of Erdogan's new Cabinet is now known. On 21 June 2007, the Resmi Gazete newspaper published a programme for 2008-10 which was prepared by the State Planning Organization and endorsed by the government. 

Under the programme, the average annual economic growth rate will reach 5.5 per cent in 2008 and 5.6 per cent in 2009-10. The country's GDP is expected to increase to 720bn Turkish liras in 2008, 791bn in 2009 and 870bn in 2010. Average per capita income will reach 6,500 dollars in 2008, 7,000 in 2009 and 7,500 in 2010. It is planned to create 1.4m new jobs during this period. In addition, it is proposed to increase exports as compared to imports and increase direct foreign investment. It is expected that the tobacco, energy, petroleum and chemical industries, along with telecommunications, will be completely liberalized following privatization. The state's involvement in sugar manufacturing and sea ports management will be minimized.

In implementing his policy, Erdogan is using the Justice and Development Party's skilful leading lights.

The second man in the party and the government is Abdullah Gul - the former foreign minister and a presidential nominee. He graduated from Istanbul University and received his Ph.D. degree from the same university in 1983. During his graduate studies he attended programmes in Exeter and London.

He has worked in international finance institutions (the Islamic Development Bank). He is fluent in English and Arabic. In 1991 Gul was elected to parliament from the Welfare Party. In 1996-97 he was a minister of state in Erbakan's government.

The Justice and Development Party's economic policy was drawn up by Mehmet Simsek, Merrill Lynch's former director for the Middle East and Africa. The party has many educated and skilled professionals of this sort. Simultaneously, Erdogan opened up the party's doors to professional politicians from other parties who enjoy the people's confidence. Mehmet Saglam, who was the education minister in Tansu Ciller's government, joined the party in the run-up to the election. Saglam is expected to be appointed education minister in the new Cabinet. Reha Samuroglu, a former official of the True Path Party, Ulki Guney, the former Interior Minister, Ertugrul Gunay, the secretary general of the Republican People's Party and others have joined the Justice and Development Party as well.

Erdogan always stresses his adherence to Turkey's secular foundation and presents himself as a pro-Western conservative.

Nevertheless, Turkey's secularists, orthodox Kemalists, some of the generals and pro-Western parties view Erdogan and his government with suspicion. To justify this suspicion, the media often cite the party's legislative initiative to criminalize adultery. Apart from the amendments put to referendum, the Justice and Development Party openly declared in its election platform that it planned to mark the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic by adopting a new constitution which would comply with modern European standards. It is planned to change relations between the military and civilian authorities to exclude the generals' interference in the country's political life in future. It is the military who present themselves as guarantors of the country's secular pro-Western choice. However, a coup d'etat similar to those of the 1950s and 1970s and even of 1997, when Erbakan's government was ousted, is unlikely to happen again.

The support that the USA is offering to the Kurds in Iraq has triggered a negative reaction in Turkey and weakened the position of the generals who are connected to Washington and NATO. Many pro-Western members of the top brass have recently retired and generals with stronger nationalistic views replaced them.

As to an alleged change in Turkey's orientation from the West towards the Islamic world; there is no evidence in the Justice and Development Party's policy to justify this assertion. However, if Brussels continues to use various pretexts to drag out the negotiations for Turkey's EU membership, and if the USA does not stop pandering to Kurds and Armenians and encouraging their anti-Turkish actions, I would not rule out the possibility of Turkey changing direction in its foreign policy and upon security issues. 

It is symptomatic that, despite the USA's discontent, an agreement has recently been signed on Turkish companies' involvement in the development of Iran's gas deposits and on the transportation of Iranian gas to Europe.

Ankara realizes its increased strength and significance. Faithfully performing its commitments to its partners, it has the right to expect that the country's national interests will be taken into account.

Meanwhile, political processes in the country are taking their normal course. The first session of a new parliament passed without scandal. Female MPs from the Justice and Development party did not come to parliament wearing headscarves and members of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party took an oath in Turkish. The media stressed that neither the president nor the chief of General Staff attended the parliamentary sitting. The parliamentary leadership was elected and Erdogan was entrusted with forming a new government. An uneasy battle for the election of a new president is ahead. If the opposition again manages to disrupt the quorum, the issue of the presidential election will remain unsolved till the constitutional referendum set for 21 October.

However the situation develops from now on, the political elite in Turkey have demonstrated - to the spite of its enemies and pleasure of its friends - its maturity and ability to solve crucial problems by political means. People in Azerbaijan can only be pleased that, in this complicated international and domestic situation, fraternal Turkey has a party like Justice and Development and a leader like Recep Tayyip Erdogan who are capable of maintaining stability in the country and of leading it forward.