EFFECT OF COUNTERACTION

The first meeting of the Russian-American working group on the missile defence system, which was set up on the basis of an agreement between the two countries' presidents, was held on the last two days of July. The Russian delegation to the consultations was headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Kislyak and the American delegation by Assistant Secretary for Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation John Rood.

No-one even hoped

Another round of the negotiations on the missile defence system, as was expected, ended in nothing. In principle, what could be expected from third-ranking officials if even the presidents and foreign ministers cannot find a common language?

The Kremlin said through its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov again that during the first round of the negotiations on the missile defence system, the USA did not provide Russia with convincing proof that it is necessary to deploy elements of the American missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic. "We did not hear convincing evidence that would deny our estimations," he told journalists.

It has been repeatedly stated that the USA is planning to deploy a radar complex of the missile defence system in the Czech Republic and anti-missiles in Poland, motivating this by a threat from Iran. Russia, which opposes these plans, suggested that the USA use the radar station in Azerbaijan's Qabala District and a missile warning station that is being built in Armavir in southern Russia, if the Americans give up their intentions.

According to Lavrov, the sides agreed to prepare well for the second round of the negotiations that will probably take place in the first half of September in Moscow. "Two plus two" negotiations will be held in early October and attended by the Russian and US foreign policy chiefs.

"The delegation that visited the USA had detailed considerations that were put on paper. They were discussed and submitted for an additional examination," the minister said. He said that the American analysis of threats "does not cancel the current plans to deploy elements of the US missile defence system in the Czech Republic and Poland".

"We confirmed that before doing something, it is necessary to analyse jointly the nature of threats," Lavrov said.

The third person is not needed

We would like to highlight the fact that just before his visit to the USA, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Kislyak who headed the Russian delegation in these negotiations visited Baku and held negotiations with the local political leadership. Of course, the subject of discussion was the Qabala radar station. You would say what else should we discuss here if during the G8 summit in Heiligendamm in June, Azerbaijan expressed its consent to allow the joint Russian-American use of the Qabala radar station and its readiness for trilateral negotiations on this issue.

However, the issue is about something different here. As is known, the Russian lease of this radar station expires in 2012. By that time, the USA intends to complete the installation of missile defence systems in the Czech Republic and Poland. Along with this, the Americans have been openly saying in the recent period that the Qabala radar station belongs to Azerbaijan and that they will negotiate with Baku if they want to use this facility. Thus, this was an open hint that even if there is a need for a military-strategic surveillance facility, the third person, as it were, is not needed here.

This means that the Kremlin is trying to strike a deal with the Americans on what does not actually belong to it and what it is likely to lose after 2012. Both sides understand this. But nevertheless, Russia has already laid this card on the table. To all appearances, during his trip to Baku, Sergey Kislyak tried to "sound out" the situation once again to see if they can keep using the "Qabala trump card" in the negotiations or if they have to give it up.

However, Russian analysts have not been sleeping for all this years. Having calculated the tendency of US and NATO expansion towards their borders, they have already started building a more modern radar station in the south of their own territory - near Armavir. Recently, it was fished out as another trump card to make the Americans give up their plans to install missile defence systems in Eastern Europe, since the argument of having a radar station on Azerbaijani territory did not work very well for them.

To all appearances, the Armavir radar station will be Russia's main argument. This was indirectly confirmed by the spokesman for the US State Department, Tom Casey, in Washington. He said that the negotiations in Washington presented and discussed additional information to develop the proposal made by President Putin on 7 June. He also said that the USA will not change its policy on the missile defence systems in Europe. "I want to stress once again what the US president and others said: We believe that there is a common threat from rogue states and their potential of ballistic missiles, and in the future, probably ballistic nuclear missiles, not only to the USA and Europe, but also to Russia. We think that it would be correct to search for ways of preventing this threat. Of course, we highly value the possibility of discussing this with the Russian side. I should repeat once again - we expect our contacts to continue in the future."

Not only Russian political experts, but also military specialists know very well that Washington is not going to give up its ideas. Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, also said this in an interview with the Russian information-analytical agency MiK.

He said that deploying elements of the missile defence system in Europe, the Americans clearly point out "explanatory" work. Objections like "Iran does not have missiles that can reach European capitals" do not work. If they don't have them today, they will probably have them tomorrow. "However, Putin caught his friend George on a counter-move: Okay, I accept your arguments and suggest a simpler and cheaper way, which is almost free for the USA, of solving the Iranian problem. Namely: instead of the radar in the Czech Republic, you can use the radar station in the town of Qabala in Azerbaijan, which was built under the Soviets.

Active measures

It is quite a courageous step. But isn't it risky? If the Americans suddenly agree, they will have to be granted access to one of the most important secrets of the Russian state - the most up-to-date military technologies and information extracted by this complex.

In this regard, we should remind you that beginning from the 1950s, the USSR deprived the Americans of their monopoly on unreciprocated nuclear strike. What is more, the USSR did not take a preventive strike on the USA as a doctrine, but created the potential of reciprocal counter-strike. (Incidentally, the Americans have still not given up at the doctrinal level the right to use nuclear weapons first.)

A complex missile warning system was set up in the past. It consisted of several mutually complementary elements. It included radio-technical surveillance complexes which made it possible to discover in advance preparations to use US strategic forces (Lourdes and so on), an orbital space group to discover the torches of launched intercontinental ballistic missiles and ballistic missiles from submarines and land detection means which included over-the-horizon radar stations and trans-horizon complexes.

Information from these various types of sources is sent to the central command point of the general staff where it is immediately analysed and reported to top officials of the state with a proposal on the reciprocal counter-strike. In the conferencing system (the president, defence minister and earlier - the chief of the general staff), a decision is made and an order is issued to use a group of strategic forces. All this is done in an automated regime (the president's "nuclear case"), and there are only 3-6 minutes to make a decision from the moment the enemy launched his missiles. Such an algorithm of action sobered up even the craziest people.

But permanent reforms in the strategic and conventional forces of the Russian army, which have lasted 20 years, have seriously degraded the nuclear deterrence system, although they have not finally destroyed it. However, the United States does not want to wait for Russia's nuclear potential to die on its own. They are taking active measures to speed up the process of Russia's transformation into a non-nuclear (with regard to the USA) state.

As is known, the decision to set up a national missile defence system was taken by the US National Security Council in 1996. The purpose was to devalue the remaining Russian potential of strategic nuclear forces (SNF) by destroying most of it with the first strike (cruise missiles were the main means) and creating an opportunity to intercept missiles and warheads launched during the reciprocal counter-strike. The Americans started testing anti-missiles, using the second stages of scrapped intercontinental ballistic missiles, started active work to create space platforms with laser weapons and to install laser interception systems on Boeing-747 planes, expanded the range of first strike weapons and increased the number of air and sea-based cruise missiles. By 2009, it is planned to equip seven Boeing-747 planes with laser weapons and by 2012, to launch 16 space platforms with a range of 10,000 kilometres. The number of cruise missiles will increase to 7,000.

In order to intercept missiles, second stages of intercontinental ballistic missiles and warheads, the Americans need to have full information about the moment of the launch, the trajectory of the flight and the target. To this end, they need to cover Russian territory with complete radar surveillance, which will be done by the space group of radar surveillance and land and sea-based stations (including the radar station in the Czech Republic). All this is being successfully implemented in compliance with Law No 106-38 signed by the US president on 23 July 1999.

The ice is broken!

So will George Bush give up all these grandiose opportunities and plans for the sake of cooperation in Qabala? I doubt that. The American military-industrial complex, which has already received orders worth billions of dollars, will not allow this to happen, especially as the main purpose of Qabala is to watch the launch of ballistic missiles from submarines, cruise missiles in the Indian Ocean, as well as the situation in the Mediterranean Sea. All other tasks are of secondary importance. So we can draw the conclusion that the Qabala radar station is working against US plans and is likely to be destroyed ahead of schedule (both physically and politically). For this reason, there will be no bargaining about suspending the deployment of the European element of the American missile defence system in return for the Qabala radar station.

Nevertheless, the military-political games of the USA and Russia are only beginning, and what is going on now is probably only a "warm-up", especially if we take into account that Moscow has already demonstrated its serious approach to the issue, having withdrawn from the CFE Treaty unilaterally. Its next step might be withdrawal from the treaty on the non-proliferation of medium-range and short-range missiles, which will immediately plunge Europe into turmoil. Europe has already expressed its displeasure with the Americans' actions. There are opponents of Bush's policy in the United States as well. The former aide to the US defence secretary for international security, the retired lieutenant-general of the US ground forces, Robert Guard, said that plans to deploy the third positional area of the missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic are a military-strategic mistake by the White House and the creation of the missile defence system in Europe "needs to be frozen".

In a report made in Washington, Lieutenant-General Guard also said that Vladimir Putin was right when he warned that the American radar in the Czech Republic might "potentially invade" the Russian defence sphere. "The Bush administration has announced its plans to build a missile defence system in Europe in order to supplement the already existing components of the system and bases of interceptor missiles in Alaska and California. On 14 July, Russia officially suspended its membership of the CFE Treaty and one of the Kremlin's political consultants said that the treaty on medium-range and short-range missiles might be next. These actions deeply worry our European allies," Guard writes.

"Putin also suggested deploying interceptor missiles of the missile defence system in Turkey or Iraq and suggested using one of Russia's early warning radars in Azerbaijan in exchange for the proposed deployment of surveillance radar in the Czech Republic, which he is absolutely right to see as being potentially intrusive (capable of invading Russia's defence sphere)," the former aide to the US defence secretary writes.

Recalling that the White House's decision to hold direct bilateral talks with the governments of Poland and the Czech Republic bypassing NATO has led to "serious fears on the whole European continent and a split within NATO", General Guard called on the Bush administration "not to chase the idea of deploying the system without thorough consultations and without the agreement of our allies in NATO and Russia".

Lieutenant-General Guard spent 31 years serving in the US armed forces and has a doctor's degree in political science from Harvard University. Apart from working in the office of the Pentagon boss, he also worked as president of the National Defence University - the main US institution of military education under the direct command of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US armed forces.

Despite everything, the dangerous game is continuing and in the short-term, there seems to be no end to it. Most likely, we will witness an increase in the number of "players" in the near future. For example, China or other countries that have nuclear weapons might join in. The Americans' actions will only lead to counteraction. There is no point in searching for culprits, i.e. for "what appeared before - the egg or the chicken"...