DUAL POWER IN PALESTINE

Almost the entire population of the city of Ramallah, located on the West bank of the River Jordan, gathered on 20 July in the central square outside the residency of the head of the Palestine National Authority (PNA), Mahmoud Abbas. Buses carrying 225 prisoners freed following a decision by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert also arrived at the square. Most of those freed are activists of Fatah whose imprisonment terms were coming to an end. All of them had signed document on early release.

Although many of them were imprisoned for complicity in terrorist activities, for instance Abdel Rahim Malluh, who got nine years' imprisonment for assassinating the Israeli prime minister in 2001 and is the second man in the Palestine National Liberation Front (PNLF), Israel insists that none of the prisoners was directly involved in attacks and killing of the Israelis.

Sources in Jerusalem say that Israel took the step as part of the US-backed agreement to strengthen the position of the head of the Palestine National Authority, Mahmoud Abbas. His standing was seriously undermined after Islamic movement Hamas last month established control over the Gaza Strip in an armed way. This tactic can well be described as a failsafe approach.

The dual power in Palestine was established immediately after the death of Arafat, when the ensuring parliamentary election was swept by the radical movement Hamas. This was quite a shock for most observers. This was followed by numerous attempts to "divide power" and form coalition governments. However, everything ended in an armed rebellion in Gaza in mid-June.

"We have lost Gaza," this revelation by an aide to the PNA head, Mahmoud Abbas, made in a meeting with western diplomats was quoted on 14 June by almost all world media. On the evening of 13 June it still seemed that Fatah had good chances of turning the situation around in its favor. Reuters said Fatah had a lot more troops than the paramilitary service Hamas. However, the following morning it transpired that the Islamists got the upper hand in the crucial fight for Gaza.

This was followed by an actual division of the autonomy between Fatah and Hamas. Shortly afterwards the new Palestinian government which does not include representatives of Hamas was sworn into office by the PNA head, Mahmoud Abbas. The PNA head signed a decree enabling him to appoint members of the government without respect for the parliament's opinion, and quite soon independent politician and economist Salam Fayyad, who used to be finance minister in the previous cabinet, became the new prime minister. The duties of finance minister and foreign minister were also vested in him. Mahmoud Abbas also banned the Hamas armed units.

The new Palestinian cabinet secured international support almost immediately. The Middle Eastern "quartet" of international mediators recognized the necessity and legitimacy of Mahmoud Abbas's decisions to dissolve the government and introduce the state of emergency. The USA announced that it was lifting sanctions imposed on the Hamas cabinet, which means a resumption of multimillion assistance tranches. Finally, Israel expressed its attitude to the new government, too. "The new Palestinian government without the participation of Islamists is opening up opportunities for the resumption of the course for peace. We have received the chance we haven't had for a long time. A government without the participation of Hamas is a partner," Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told journalists.

However, after the dramatic developments of mid-June the conflict entered a "waiting phase". Fatah is securing its positions on the West bank, while Hamas is doing the same in Gaza and refusing to recognize the Palestinian government. Analysts say it is quite an interesting tactic to wait until Palestine decides who can ensure a more comfortable life, but it may not work in reality, especially given the specificity of Palestine. In the autumn of 2007, US President George Bush intends to conduct an international conference on a peaceful settlement in the Middle East. Also, the US assistance to the Palestine authority is expected to increase this year to more than $190 million. Bush made this initiative at a special new conference on prospects for resolving the Middle East conflict.

Israel supported Bush's suggestion, while Hamas has already refused to attend, saying it does not want to serve "Zionist goals". "While consulting our partners in the 'quartet' - the EU, Russia and the UN - the USA is taking a series of steps to strengthen the peace course among the Palestinians. I will convene an international meeting this autumn to be attended by countries supporting the decision on the establishment of two states (Israeli and Palestinian), reject violence, recognize Israel's right to exist and adhere to previous agreements between the sides," Bush said in a White House address.

According to Bush Hamas will continue to receive a "clear message" from Washington. "You have to recognize the legitimate Palestinian government, allow the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Gaza Strip and disband armed units. You also have to reject violence, recognize Israel's right to exist and adhere to previous agreements between the sides."

In the meantime, Hamas has already denounced Bush's idea. "We condemn this American conference which is intended to serve the interests only of the Zionist enemy," Ismail Radvan, official representative of Islamists, said in Gaza. He added that the forum would aim "to put even more pressure on Mahmoud Abbas so that he could make further concession which would divide the Gaza Strip and the West bank even more, thus sowing dissent among the Palestinians."

 described the meeting as "shameful" against the backdrop of Abbas's refusal to resume talks with the Islamists who seized power in the Gaza Strip in June. The movement believes that the primary objective is to revive the dialogue with Fatah. A call for that was made by the head of the Hamas political bureau, Haled Mashal, in Doha.

Nevertheless, people in Hamas already understand that they can no longer ensure the complete isolation. Hamas has committed a number of mistakes when seizing power in Gaza, as Mashal acknowledged. "What happened is repulsive, but those mistakes were made by individual people and their action runs counter to our policy."

According to him, the movement "is ready to apologize for those actions". At the same time, Mashal called for a resumption of a dialogue with Fatah on the basis of Mecca agreements (a program document between Palestinian leaders targeting the unity of the sides, established of law and order in the autonomy, which was adopted in Mecca in February) which he said were still effective. "But the main problem is that the opposite side is rejecting all negotiations," the political leader of Islamists said pointing to the "illegitimacy of many actions by the head of the Palestine National Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, which followed the seizure of power".

However, Mahmoud Abbas has no intention of offering "carrot" to Hamas forever. He announced early parliamentary and presidential elections. Speaking at a forum of the Palestine Liberation Organization in Ramallah, Abbas said: "We will announce early parliamentary and presidential elections and won't wait for the approval of those sitting in Gaza and abroad."

According to his aides, he has not set a date for the election, but they can take place in late 2007 or early 2008. Abbas has renewed the initially 30-day mandate of the emergency government led by Salam Fayyad until the parliamentary election.

Thus, despite the apparent tranquility, the situation in Palestine remains tense and may "explode" any minute. It appears that Hamas has no intention to abandon its super-radicalism and leave the political firmament. It is also obvious that the government to be formed through the early election will not be recognized by the movement. The world community is also unlikely to accept the existence of Gaza in its current Hamasistan status, as many world media have already labeled it. But it is anyone's guess now whether a bloodless way out can be found in the current dual power in Palestine. Palestinians are known to have fired at each other in the past.