ELECTIONS OF JUSTICE AND DEVELOPMENT

Extraordinary parliamentary elections were held in Turkey on 22 July. They were held on the initiative of the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) after it failed to get its representative elected to the post of president due to obstruction by the opposition. The election campaign was quite tense and was accompanied by large rallies, which is not surprising at all, as Turkey is experiencing a difficult political crisis against a background of increased terrorist activity by militants of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), as well as difficult relations with traditional allies such as the USA and the European Union.

Impressive victory

Fourteen political parties and an unprecedented number (699) of independent candidates (in 2002, there were only 190 independent candidates, of whom only nine became deputies) stood in the elections. The reason is that the high, 10-per-cent barrier deprives most parties of the chance to get into parliament, while there is no such obstacle to independent candidates. According to estimates in the Hurriyet newspaper, the general expenditure on the election campaign totalled 1.2-1.4 billion dollars.

The elections saw a high turnout and were not marred by any significant incidents or violations. According to the Central Electoral Commission of Turkey, more than 86 per cent of all the registered 42.5 million voters turned out to vote. As numerous opinion polls predicted, the Justice and Development Party was victorious, gaining 46.7 per cent of the vote. This is one of the highest results for the multi-party system existing in the country. In second place was the Republican People's Party (RPP) - 20.9 per cent. The third party to make it into parliament was the Nationalist Action Party (NAP), which gained 14.3 per cent.

The number of women deputies has doubled. However, their numbers are still low and account for 9 per cent. For comparison: in Sweden 47 per cent of members of parliament are women, even in Azerbaijan it is 12 per cent. Although party leaders kept their promise to increase the number of women in the Majlis, there is still a long way to go to achieve an acceptable gender balance.

The preliminary distribution of seats in the new parliament reveals the following picture: JDP - 340 seats (363 before), RPP - 112 seats (178 before), NAP - 71 seats and independents - 27.

Thus, though the JDP gained many more votes than in previous elections and the RPP slightly improved its result, the parties gained fewer seats in the parliament this time because of the peculiarities of Turkey's electoral system. Deputy mandates were gained by the NAP and independent candidates, most of whom (24) belonging to the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DSP). However, the main effect of the extraordinary elections is that voters confirmed their support for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who led his party to victory and once more gained the right to form a government.

Firm foundation

Although in the run-up to the elections, some politicians and analysts, both in Turkey and Baku, predicted surprises, i.e. great success for the Nationalist Action Party, this did not happen and the NAP came only third. The JDP's victory turned out to be quite impressive and unconditional. It is due to specific achievements in the previous period, well-organized propaganda work during the election campaign and literate use of administrative resources.

Voters certainly appreciated Erdogan's efforts to improve the Turkish economy, which is steadily demonstrating a high rate of growth (an average of 7 per cent per year). Exports and the attractiveness of the Turkish market for foreign investments are increasing. The country's national income under the rule of the JDP has increased from 181 to 400 billion dollars. The debt to the International Monetary Fund has shrunk considerably, and there is almost no budget deficit, while inflation is below 10 per cent. Living standards have improved, as indicated by the fourfold increase in car sales. About 6,600 km of roads have been built, high-speed railways are being constructed which will connect the capital with the other major cities of the country, subsidies to farmers have increased considerably and 39 new universities have been opened.

Apart from a reminder of previous achievements, the JDP election manifesto also contained promises on the indexation of public servants' deposits according to the level of inflation, tax relief for investors, support for small and medium-sized businesses, increases in social aid to the population, expansion of the health insurance system, allowances for disabled people and so on. By 2013, it is planned to increase the nominal per capita income to 10,000 dollars and the parity of buying capacity to 15,000 dollars. It is planned to double the gross domestic product, increase exports to 200 billion dollars and revenues from tourism to 40 billion.

Another important point in the JDP election manifesto was the intention to carry out serious constitutional reforms by the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic. Erdogan promised a "civil compromise" constitution for the country, saying that the new document should be modern, capacious and clear. The JDP thinks it necessary to reflect in the constitution a system of mutual relations between the military and civil authorities based on European norms, whereas the current basic law is used by generals to interfere in the country's political life. As a result, the role of the National Security Council will diminish. We should mention that the constitutional initiatives of the JDP are supported by the influential Turkish Association of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.

As a result, Erdogan's rivals failed to confront him and his party with a constructive and attractive programme of practical reform in the economic and political sphere. They preferred to concentrate on exaggerating the threat to Turkey's secular system and on the alleged creeping Islamization of the country by the JDP. We should point out that secularism, which forms the basis of Turkey's state system, rules out the use of religion in the country's social, economic, political and legal life. In compliance with this principle, it is forbidden to use citizens' religious feelings and religious values to achieve political goals and increase one's own influence. However, voters thought that the statements about the Islamist threat had been overstated and gave preference to specific actions, not ideological rhetoric.

Immediately after the announcement of the preliminary results which testified to the complete victory of the JDP, Erdogan said that Turkey had stood an important test of democracy which could serve as an example to the whole world. "Democracy won the elections and the people chose the JDP as a focus of public concord," he said in his address to his supporters from the balcony of the JDP headquarters in Ankara. "We have a common goal - to turn Turkey into a powerful and prosperous state, and we will not deviate from it," the prime minister said. At the same time, he stressed that his party will defend the secular foundations of Turkey. He also said the Turkish authorities will continue their active efforts to enter the European Union as a full member, continue democratic reforms and ensure economic growth in the country.

Everything lies ahead

So the elections have ended. However, local and foreign observers assert that the political situation in Turkey will not calm down very soon. They predict a "hot political autumn" in the country, linking it to the forthcoming constitutional reform referendum. If constitutional amendments are accepted, the head of state will be elected in a direct nationwide vote for a period of five years, with the possibility of re-election for a second term. It is proposed that the tenure of members of parliament should be reduced from five to four years, while the quorum in the local parliament should be reduced from the current 376 to 184.

The referendum is scheduled for the middle of autumn. For the time being, the new parliament of Turkey has to face a serious test after its formation - to elect the president. It will be difficult to do so within 40 days, as required by law, because the JDP does not have in parliament the 367 votes needed to take the decision. If the Majlis again fails to reach agreement and elect the head of state, it will be dissolved and new extraordinary elections will be held in the country.

In order to avoid a new political crisis, the opposition has come up with an initiative to elect the head of state from independent candidates, not members of parliament. Opposition representatives recall that the candidacy of the incumbent president, Sezer, was also nominated as an alternative to representatives of political parties in the past. However, Erdogan is categorically against the new president being elected from outside and, to all appearances, he will insist on the candidacy of Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul. In order to have him elected, the JDP has to drum up support from independent candidates and win over defectors from other parties. However, we cannot rule out a compromise when the intermediate head of state elected by parliament will be replaced after the referendum by a new president elected in a nationwide vote.

Parliament and the new government also have to make up their mind on the extremely painful Kurdish problem. The Turkish authorities, principally influential military circles, have repeatedly expressed their readiness to carry out a cross-border operation into the neighbouring country if the Iraqi government and US forces do not take effective measures against PKK militants based in the north of the country. Ankara says that it has no claims on other countries' territories. 

The authorities and Kurdish leaders of Iraq are protesting, while Washington is issuing warnings. All this is taken in Turkey as connivance with Kurdish separatists and militants, as a result of which anti-American sentiment is growing. It is quite difficult to listen to endless calls for restraint and dialogue when more than 90 members of the Turkish armed forces' anti-terrorist units have been killed since the beginning of this year alone.

Analysts also draw attention to the fact that a considerable group of Kurdish deputies have been returned to parliament. In view of the fact that there is a faction of the Nationalist Action Party in the parliament, which reacts strongly to all statements and actions that undermine the integrity of the Turkish state and society, many predict that slanging matches and hand-to-hand fighting will soon resume in the parliament.

In a word, the Erdogan government will have to undo the difficult knots of domestic and foreign contradictions with patience and step by step and solve many important issues. The leader of the Justice and Development Party has proved to be a really effective statesman, pursuing quite a prudent and successful policy at a difficult time for the country. For this reason, Turkish citizens have given him a big vote of confidence and link their hopes for the future with the JDP.

The elections held in Turkey were assessed by international observers as democratic, honest and fair. The reaction of major powers to the success of the JDP and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also positive on the whole. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was one of the first to send him his congratulations. A strong and stable Turkey, which is confidently moving forward on the path to progress, implies the strengthening of Azerbaijan's international position. Our leadership has established close relations with the Erdogan government and, for this reason, there is a chance, without pausing for thought, to expand strategic Azerbaijani-Turkish cooperation in all spheres for the good of our peoples.