"IRANIAN EXAM" FOR YEREVAN AND WASHINGTON

The situation surrounding Iran is keeping the world community in suspense. This is taking place largely due to the inability of the UN and other international organizations to put real pressure on Iran to secure resumption of IAEA inspections at its nuclear sites. 

This, for its part, urges other countries, also concerned about the clerical regime's nuclear plans, to take a different course of action. The final decision on the military operation against Iran has not been made yet, but Washington keeps rallying "anti-Iranian front" and stepping up economic and financial pressure on Iran. In particular, the White House has already made it clear that the USA may introduce serious sanctions against the oil companies signing contracts for the development of Iran's oil fields. BBC explains in this connection that according to the US law on sanctions against Iran, Washington can punish not necessarily American but also other companies with business operations with Iran exceeding $20 million. "We have informed major oil and gas companies of the existence of such a law and of our intention to apply it if they cross this line," Nicolas Burns, a senior State Department official, has said.

Most observers see Burns' statement as evidence of mounting US economic pressure on Iran. In addition to that, the US warning came at a time when several European energy giants, including 

Shell, Repsol and Total, are considering the possibility of signing multi-billion contracts on the development of Iranian gas fields. Also, Chinese and Malaysian energy groups are expressing interest in Iran as well. Experts are drawing attention to another aspect of the problem as well. This law was adopted in the USA a long time ago, but Washington has so far refused to apply real sanctions against oil companies. Now the situation has changed: the US Congress, currently controlled by the Democrats, is putting pressure on the Bush administration urging it to take resolute measures with regard to companies cooperating with Iran. Also, the current economic sanctions perfectly dovetail with the campaign to destabilize the situation in Iran without the war, which was so extensively speculated on by the media of late.

In the meantime, an interesting statement has recently been made by US Charge d'Affaires in Armenia Anthony Godfrey. He said the USA considers it necessary to replace the Armenian (Metsamor) nuclear plant with a new station. He added that within the framework of assistance programs the USA had assisted Armenia in minimizing the nuclear plant risks, but that was not deemed sufficient and the need for replacing the Metsamor nuclear station with a new one is still on the agenda. The diplomat indicated that the USA was in talks with the Armenian government on finding the best solution to the issue.

Officially Anthony Godfrey spoke about the potential environmental hazard of the Metsamor nuclear plant, which is located in a seismic zone. However, during the same news conference, he made another statement which sheds more light on US concerns over the plant. The US diplomat stressed that Washington was concerned about the growing Armenian-Iranian energy cooperation. He added that his country was cooperating with other countries in an effort to urge Iran to honor its commitments to the international community. Two UN SC resolutions are aimed at reducing the relations of foreign states with Iran and to ban investment in this country. "We have voiced our concerns to the Armenian government at all levels. At the same time, the USA appreciates the transparency with which the Armenian government works with Iran on the construction of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline. We value the sincerity with which the Armenian authorities characterize the prospects for developing these relations. Also, the USA supports the Armenian government in order for it to help the international community in urging Iran to observe its commitments," Godfrey said.

Yerevan issued an immediate reaction to Godfrey's statements. Deputy Speaker of the Armenian parliament, a member of the bureau of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutyun, Vaan Ovanesyan, unwillingly confirmed that there is a serious reason for concern. In particular, he indicated that the statement by the US charge d'affaires, Anthony Godfrey, that the USA is concerned with the expanding cooperation between Iran and Yerevan is a hint that Yerevan has to be more careful in its relations with Tehran. "However, Armenia is a sovereign country and can decide on how to build relations on the basis of its national interests," he said and added that the international community had thus far treated with understanding the Armenia-Iran cooperation realizing that the country, being in blockade, has no other option available. "Armenia has signed almost all international agreements on non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, so the republic behaves well and there is nothing for the USA to worry about," the Armenian politician stressed. He said further the allegations leveled against Iran have yet to be proved. However, Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan tried to shy away and told journalists that there were no problems between Armenia and the USA over Armenia's relations with Iran. According to him, Armenia has good relations with all countries, especially its neighbors, and there is no reason for concern. At the same time, the minister indicated that he was unaware of the context in which Anthony Godfrey made the statement. "Armenia and the USA have a dialogue on all issues - political, economic and security. And it is within this framework that all the issues are being discussed," the foreign minister said and vigorously brushed off suggestions on a discerning strain in Yerevan-Washington relations.

In the meantime, it is common knowledge that when diplomats express concern over host country actions in a news conference, this is seen as a serious measure which is resorted to when attempts to iron out differences through confidential contacts and negotiations have not yielded fruit. In addition to that, no-one has officially accused Yerevan of handing over nuclear technologies to Tehran yet, though the word "energy" also has a nuclear connotation in the USA. And it is perfectly clear that the contacts between Russian and Iranian nuclear specialists with the mediation of their Armenian colleagues from the Metsamor nuclear plant, which have been extensively covered in the Azerbaijani media, did not escape the US attention.

At last, Armenia's long standing friendship with Middle Eastern radicals is also a well-known fact. Cooperation of ASALA with Hezbollah and Jihad Islami is a graphic but not the only example. In any case, Armenians are almost never among the victims of appallingly frequent acts of terror being committed in the Christian quarters of Lebanon. No-one is even trying to accuse Iranian ultra-radical Mahmud Ahmadinejad of suppressing the rights of local Armenians. At last, Armenia's status of a "specially invited guest" in the League of Arab Nations is also worthy of note.

Another thing is also quite clear. The regional media, especially Azerbaijani, constantly write about Armenia's close friendship with Iran. However, things have never gone as far as open expression of concern, except for a remark made in the late 90s by the then US ambassador to Armenia, Michael Lemmon. Today Washington's concerns over cooperation between Yerevan and Tehran are at least food for thought. It may well be followed by the beginning of "polarization" of Washington's policy with regard to countries of the South Caucasus and rejection of the "equal approach" to Azerbaijan and Armenia. In any case, it is noteworthy that the deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia programs of the Center of Strategic and International Surveys (CSIS), Cory Welt, made a no less sensational statement in an interview with PanArmenian news agency. According to him, the US Armenian lobby does not always act in the interests of the Armenian nation. "As for the Armenian lobby, all I can say is that it does not always act in the interests of the Armenian nation. The US attention to Armenia would be greater if the US Congress confirmed the appointment of the ambassador to Armenia and if the Congress had been more sensitive to the importance of maintaining good relations with Turkey because the United States is entering a new stage in relations with Iraq. I understand the great importance of the recognition of the "Armenian genocide" [quotation marks inserted by the author here and throughout] for Armenia and the Armenian lobby in the USA, but if this goal encounters with fundamental elements of the US-Armenia and US-Turkish relations, there is a risk that such relations will be affected," Welt said.

The regional media, including Azerbaijani, were and are circulating reports indicating that the activity of the Armenian lobby is creating a lot more problems for the USA and Armenia proper than Turkey. Furthermore, back in the mid-1990s many Azerbaijani political analysts, namely Vafa Quluzada, were saying that the Armenian lobby has a lot more opportunities to talk about the "national spirit" while walking about the Elysian Fields or sitting on a veranda in their villa overlooking the Pacific ocean than the Armenians dealing with pressing national problems on a day-to-day basis, including such a prosaic sphere as economic development which is hardly possible without normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Moreover, in the last several years the USA has been applying serious effort to withdraw Armenia from Russia's monopolistic influence and to initiate a political dialogue between Yerevan and Ankara. Against this background the readiness of the Armenian lobby to pedal the topic of the "Armenian genocide" runs counter to the position of Washington and even the Armenian nation for that matter. However, Washington has ventured to name this "conflict of interests" for the first time, albeit on a semi-official level.