ANKARA'S HOT SUMMER

The usual inter-party fighting, unavoidable in any democracy, has turned into a fully blown political crisis in Turkey. This is taking place against the backdrop of Ankara's worsening prospects for Euro-integration and an escalation in terrorist activity by fighters from the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK.

Election campaign

The domestic political atmosphere has been hotting up since the end of April, beginning of May. Parliament began the process of electing a new head of state as President Sezer's term of office was coming to an end. The only candidate from the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, did not gain the necessary number of votes, as opposition deputies, who form the minority in the Turkish parliament, twice blocked a vote on his candidacy. As a result, in line with legislation deputies declared early parliamentary elections to be held on 22 July.

At the same time the AK Party has submitted draft changes to the constitution under which the head of state would be elected by popular vote and parliament's term would be cut from five years to four. Turkish President Sezer vetoed the bill and returned it to parliament which in two readings on 28 and 31 May confirmed its previous decision. Under Turkish law the president cannot twice veto one and the same document. This means that if the bill of amendments is not ratified, then the question has to be decided by popular referendum, which the head of the government and AK Party thinks can be held at the same time as the early parliamentary elections.

Although 370 legislators voted for the amendments package, the opposition, which has the support of influential military and university circles and acting President Sezer, did not give up its intention to torpedo the bill through the courts. The leaders of the Republican People's Party claim that there were numerous infringements of the rules when the package of amendments was passed. Topuz, deputy head of the Republican People's Party parliamentary faction, said that the necessary quorum had not been present for the voting on reducing parliament's term of office. "Three hundred and sixty-six deputies voted in favour and not the 367 required by the constitution. It follows that it was not passed," he said. A new query is being prepared on this basis to the Constitutional Court, which already had strained relations with the ruling party and government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The chairwoman of the Constitutional Court accused Erdogan of insulting the court and said that she would bring a legal action against him. This followed the Turkish premier's description of the Constitutional Court's actions as "disgraceful" in a speech to parliament on 29 May. He thought that it was the court's decision that had led to the blocking of the procedure to elect a new president.

Meanwhile, the election campaign is beginning in the country. The political parties that intend to contest the elections have submitted their lists to the election commission. So far there are 15 parties. The elections are expected to change significantly the face of the Turkish parliament. Of the 351 ruling party deputies in parliament at present, 150 do not feature on the new list of candidates. Of the 149 People's Republican Party deputies 66 have been left out in the cold. A noticeable increase in the number of women in parliament is also expected with 62 on the ruling party list and 52 on the main opposition party list. Many independent candidates are women too.

Opinion polls give the ruling AK Party an undisputed lead. The much heralded union of the Dogru Yol and Anavatan parties has fallen through because of a failure to agree on the candidacy of ex-Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz. As a result, whether or not the right-wing parties will cross the 10 per cent election barrier is open to question. After talks the People's Republican Party and Democratic Left Party decided to put off until a sunny day the idea of merging into a single party, stressing that they would agree on and mutually support candidates. These parties could come second and third. The fourth party expected to get into the new parliament is the Nationalist Movement Party. Even if the AK Party consolidates and extends its support amongst the electorate, the number of seats it wins will depend on whether or not its rival parties manage to cross the electoral barrier. Local and foreign observers think a repetition of the last elections unlikely, when the AK Party won only one-third of votes but got a substantial majority in parliament, enough to form a single-party government.

One-way street

As well as stabilizing the country's financial and economic position, one of the greatest achievements of Erdogan's government was the talks that began in October 2005 on Turkey's entry to the European Union. However, this long drawn-out process, which experts think will take at least 10 to 15 years, has stalled over Ankara's refusal to recognize the Republic of Cyprus, an EU member, and open up to it its air and sea ports. This prompted the decision at last December's EU summit to freeze talks on eight of the 35 articles in the integration dossier. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, whose country is at present chairing the EU, recently said that Brussels is ready to resume talks with Turkey at the end of June on just three of the dossier articles. 

The election of Nicolas Sarkozy as president of France does not inspire optimism amongst Turkish supporters of EU integration. He has repeated his position, set out during his election campaign, that there is no place for Turkey in the EU. His suggested alternative of creating a Mediterranean community parallel to the EU received a cold reception not only in Ankara, but also in Tel Aviv, Cairo and other capitals. 

EUFOR command's refusal to give Turkey the right to command EU peacekeeping units has furnished further evidence of the widening differences between Ankara and Brussels. In response Ankara withdrew from the EU's international forces the specially created special-purpose brigade, backed up by aircraft and ships, which it had earlier pledged. Turkey made it clear that relations with Brussels could not be a one-way street.

Since military operations are coordinated by NATO, even when the operations are carried out under the EU flag, NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer is expected in Ankara to resolve the incipient crisis. As for political issues of cooperation between Turkey and the EU, the sides are continuing dialogue. Speaking on 5 June at the conference Turkey and the EU Together for a European Energy Policy, EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn called on Ankara not to step back from the democratic reforms envisaged in the EU integration process and paid particular attention to reforms related to the rule of law and basic freedoms. He also said that the European Union supports Turkey in the fight against terrorism: "The EU condemns and we deeply deplore these terrible attacks against Turkey and its people. Let me assure you that the EU is at your side in our common fight against terrorism."

Hammering the terrorists

Terrorism committed by PKK fighters has become such an acute problem for Turkey that it is beginning to eclipse both the domestic political crisis and the difficulties of EU integration. The chronicle of the past few days is truly alarming. On 22 May a suicide bomber blew himself up at the entrance to one of the main shopping centres in Ankara, Anafartalar, killing seven people and injuring around 100. The special services then prevented another two attacks planned by female terrorists who are members of the PKK. They were arrested carrying 4 kg of A-4 plastic explosive, the same type as that used in the Ankara attack.

At least seven Turkish soldiers died and another seven were wounded when Kurdish fighters attacked a military base in Pulumur. In response the Turkish army is carrying out a major anti-terrorist operation in the east of the country, codenamed Hammer. It involves an army contingent of 50,000 operating in 11 Turkish provinces with the support of armoured subdivisions, military helicopters and aeroplanes. The Turkish General Staff reported that 15 fighters had been killed and seven arrested during armed clashes.

Raids by fighters from their bases in the mountains in northern Iraq have led to a serious deterioration in Ankara's relations with the regional government of Iraqi Kurdistan and also with Washington. The Turkish authorities have for a long time been anxiously following the steps taken by Iraqi Kurds to extend their autonomy, fearing that this could be a dangerous example for Turkey's own Kurdish population. Ankara is also concerned at plans to include the oil-rich town of Kirkuk into the Kurdish area. This would provide an economic foundation for the plan to declare the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan which Turkey thinks would disrupt the balance in the region. Not restricting itself to diplomatic gestures and propaganda attacks, Turkey is concentrating its troops in the border strip with Iraq and threatening to strike the fighters' bases.

The chief of the Turkish General Staff, Gen Buyukanit, declared that "the army is ready for such an operation, but the final decision rests with the country's political leadership". However, the USA is warning against military action, thinking that an incursion by Turkish troops into northern Iraq would not only fail to produce the desired result but would further complicate the situation. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently said this publicly once again. Turkish business interests in northern Iraq might suffer too. The negative consequences for Turkey's image in European public opinion have to be added to the mix as well. The old tactics of operations by Turkish special units in the border areas are, therefore, expected to be continued: brief incursions into Iraqi territory, elimination of the enemy and their bases with air support from military helicopters and subsequent return to Turkish territory.

At the same time disappointment with the USA is growing in Turkey because of the Americans' inability to neutralize PKK activities from Iraqi territory which has led to serious friction between the two NATO allies. Last year the Bush administration appointed former air force General Joseph Ralston to be a mediator between the Americans, Turks and Iraqi Kurds on the issue of the PKK. However, many local analysts think that the dialogue has not produced the necessary results. Bulent Aliriza of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies says: "The United States understands Turkey's concerns, but it is caught in a very difficult position of trying to reconcile what is irreconcilable. It has its long-standing relationship with Ankara on one side, and on the other side it has its very important tactical relationship with the Iraqi Kurds, who are opposed to a Turkish intervention in Iraq."

Be that as it may, our brother Turkey is in a difficult situation. Its relations with both its strategic partners, the European Union and the USA, have run into a blind alley. A potentially more dangerous military crisis between the USA and Iran could at any moment be added to the uncertainty in Iraq, aggravated by the PKK's terrorist activity. It is obvious that at such a time it is extremely important to keep the domestic political situation within the constitutional fold, to hold democratic early parliamentary elections, to form an effective government and elect a new head of state. Only state authorities that are absolutely legitimate and enjoy the people's trust can cope with the challenges facing Turkey today and continue to lead the country confidently along the path of modernization and progress.