GREAT PROBLEMS OF G8

The G8 summit (USA, Russia, the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Japan and Canada), held in the German resort town of Heiligendamm on 6-8 June, ended with the adoption of 13 documents. This was the 33rd meeting of the organization, which initially had just six members. The last to join was Russia (officially in 1998), which hosted the summit for the first time last year in St Petersburg. Contrary to pessimistic predictions that the meeting would be a complete failure, the German summit of the heads of the world's leading superpowers passed relatively quietly and produced palpable results, while for outside observers it was even quite interesting. And this was despite the fact that two participants - French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - were complete novices to the summit. To crown it all, the meeting was chaired by a representative of the fairer sex - German Chancellor Angela Merkel - for the first time.

Africa, economy, environment …

One of the central topics of the summit was Africa. G8 leaders traditionally discuss problems of this continent in their meetings. Unfortunately, this does not always lead to an improved future for African nations. This time, however, there is hope that things will be slightly different. A total of $60 billion is to be allocated to Africa to fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. In return, donor countries have urged African governments to be more effective in fighting corruption. Both sides are expected to report on progress in fulfilling their commitments at the next summit in Japan.

As far as the world economy is concerned, world leaders agreed to "slightly" correct emerging imbalances. Special attention was paid to such areas as climate and energy efficiency. Initially, host country Germany suggested that its partners in the G8 take on commitments to halve their emissions of industrial gases by 2050 and to increase energy efficiency in the housing and transport sectors by 20 per cent by 2020. However, the parties failed to agree on specific commitments regarding the protection of the climate. The final declaration contains only the desire of a group of European countries to halve gas emissions by 2050. To be honest, there was little hope of a breakthrough - the problem is too serious and, as observers say, it is already progress that at least a common goal is discernible. Now, environmental ministers of G8 countries have to develop an agreement within the UN framework to supersede the Kyoto protocol. Perhaps the biggest achievement has been the fact that the USA, the main "supplier" of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and which has not signed the Kyoto protocol, has agreed to contribute to the development of such a document. In the meantime, scientists are issuing warnings that a rise in the global temperature by 1.5-2.5 degrees, as compared with 1990, would put a third of all living species on the brink of extinction, while more than a billion people would face a shortage of water, drought, hurricanes of unbelievable power and other natural calamities.

No sensations  

Going back to big politics it is worth indicating that the German summit laid the foundation for the so-called Heiligendamm process. The gist of the process is that the G8 has invited China, India, Brazil, SAR and Mexico into closer cooperation. We recall that China is currently fourth in the world by volume of GDP, while India is 10th. They are also nuclear powers with the largest populations in the world. It is obvious that such factors cannot be ignored. It is for this reason that meetings will now be held over a period of two years under the auspices of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. They will result in the adoption of a report with recommendations on further forms of cooperation with "invited" countries. Some experts have even stated that the Heiligendamm process is the first step towards expanding the G8. It goes without saying that its leaders can't, and don't want, to take sole responsibility for solving global problems. 

As was to be expected, G8 statements about the most "burning" international problems did not create any sensation. Thus, the heads of state spoke in favour of "further measures" against Iran if it adheres to its stubborn stance and does not abandon its uranium enrichment programme. It was also demanded of North Korea that it stop testing missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. As far as Sudan is concerned, Khartoum was offered a choice: support international efforts towards diffusing the conflict in Darfur, or face unpleasant sanctions.

Naturally, the international community was looking forward to the discussion of the Kosovo problem, but there was no major breakthrough here either - the positions of the world's leading superpowers have yet to be agreed. In particular, the main stumbling block is whether the granting of independence to Kosovo will set an international precedent which can be taken advantage of in other territorial disputes, including post-Soviet ones. This, of course, mainly concerns South Ossetia and Abkhazia which have been trying to break away from Georgia for some time. It is worth noting that, during a meeting with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili on the sidelines of the St Petersburg international economic forum, which opened on the day following the G8 summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to tell his Georgian opposite number that the actions of his western allies with regard to Kosovo could affect Georgia proper. "I had no doubt that you would pay attention to our position on the fundamental principles of international law. This, first of all, concerns the Balkans. But as you know, we have always safeguarded the principle of the territorial integrity of states. Unfortunately, attempts are being made to violate this principle. And this, of course, creates problems for us in the post-Soviet area," Putin said. In fact, the head of the Serbian Cabinet of Ministers, Vojislav Kostunica, also came to St Petersburg.

South Caucasus instead of Eastern Europe 

In the meantime, the central development of the summit was, of course, Moscow's initiative to join with Washington to prevent future threats from pariah countries. During a bilateral meeting with George Bush, Vladimir Putin suggested that the Americans station their missile defence systems not in Eastern Europe but at the Qabala radar station in Azerbaijan. As far as anti-ballistic missiles are concerned, they can be installed, according to Putin, either in Turkey or in Iraq. We recall that earlier, despite friendly statements from the White House, Russia reacted quite vigorously to US plans in the Czech Republic and Poland and even threatened to point its missiles at countries of the Old World. And now Moscow has offered an alternative. According to the Russian presidential aide, Sergey Prikhodko, the American side has responded with interest to the Russian proposal for the collective prevention of future threats.

At the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov believes that "Russia and the USA must freeze talks on establishing a missile defence system in Europe for as long as the Qabala radar station is being considered". "At the present stage there is sufficient information provided by the radar station in Azerbaijan. It is a reliable early warning station, is capable of fulfilling the tasks and serves our interests. Therefore, the joint use of information from the station will allow the USA to abandon plans to unfold missile defence systems in Europe and develop space components," the diplomat said. Asked whether Azerbaijan would agree to joint use of the station with Russia and the USA, Lavrov said the Russian president had already held talks with his Azerbaijani counterpart and Baku had voiced its approval of the idea. However, Lavrov's optimism is not shared universally in the West. For instance, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer believes that "it would be premature to give a final assessment of the situation, because the radar station in Azerbaijan is too close to the countries which are sources of threat". The Qabala radar station is capable of "seeing" objects 6,000 kilometres away. The station provides information on about 10,000 space objects a day.

It is also notable that opinions on Vladimir Putin's suggestion have divided into two camps. Some are convinced that the Russian president has cleverly outsmarted his overseas colleague.

For instance, The Financial Times Deutschland says that by "acting upon the main principle of judo, 'win by losing', passionate master of judo Vladimir Putin unexpectedly floored his American partner". Others are sure that Putin had to give in to the White House and agree to an American presence in the South Caucasus. There is also a third opinion: the Qabala radar station is the litmus test of Washington's real intentions. Thus, if Bush rejects the "interesting suggestion", he can be openly accused of pointing the potential missile defence systems in Europe at Russia. Then the Kremlin would have the ammunition to take counter action. If Bush agrees…, it would appear that Putin has the upper hand… As for Moscow's potential loss of the Qabala radar station, which is leased from Azerbaijan, it does not seem to be particularly concerned about that. Some sources say that Russia has already started or is about to start the construction of a new generation space radar station on its territory. As far as Baku is concerned, the US-Russian talks have shown again that Azerbaijan is located at the heart of world interests in the region and overall European security depends partly on the country's administration.

Bush couldn't stay in the saddle

We have to say that the Heiligendamm summit did not pass off without problems. The unpleasantness was not caused by anti-globalisation movements but by an unknown gastric infection, the first victim of which was the US president. Later, digestive problems annoyed dozens of accredited journalists. In fact, it is worth noting that, by suffering similar symptoms of infection, journalists saved Bush from allegations that the root-cause of his ill health was not poor quality food but ordinary overeating. George Bush does not seem to be very lucky at G8 summits. During the 2005 summit in Scotland he hit a policeman with his bike. The officer was then taken to hospital with an ankle injury, while the head of the White House went off unperturbed. This time he was less lucky. He even had to miss the morning working session at which the problems of the African continent were discussed. His meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy was moved from the conference hall to the US president's suite. Journalists covering the summit quickly released a "clandestine" joke that there were obvious symptoms of Bush suffering from polonium-210 poisoning (a hint at the well-known Litvinenko case). This is how one of the forum participants allegedly exacted revenge on him for being disagreeable… Anyway, the phrases "gastric and intestinal infection" and the "G8 summit in Heiligendamm" are now forever linked. Speaking seriously, however, the main achievement of such meetings is that they help develop common goals and objectives for the world's superpowers. This is why other countries watch G8 summits intently. The next meeting is due in Japan in July 2008. Let's wait and see what happens then…