STAGNATION ON "A FIRM FOUNDATION"

Azerbaijani-Russian high-level meetings have always been an important event in the political life of our country. The official visit to Baku by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on 21-22 May was no exception. Lavrov was visiting between two important dates in the history of bilateral relations - the 15th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations (4 April 1992) and the 10th anniversary of the signing of the interstate agreement on friendship, cooperation and mutual security (3 July 1997). In the run-up to the visit, Russian officials pointed out that Moscow sees Azerbaijan as a partner of strategic importance in the short and long term, and said that a respectful tone and an atmosphere of trust and equality have been established in bilateral relations. This atmosphere also prevailed in the meetings in Baku of the Russian guest with the Azerbaijani president, prime minister and foreign minister which examined important issues of bilateral economic and political relations, as well as the regional and international situation. However, this atmosphere is not sufficient for the further development of bilateral relations.

It is well-known that the problem of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict settlement is a priority for the agenda of all meetings between the two countries' officials. In this regard, there was interest in what new statements Sergey Lavrov would make, as he represents a country that has a key influence on the course of the negotiating process. An official spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Andrey Kamynin, said in an interview before Lavrov's visit that Russia's position on Karabakh was unchangeable: "We proceed from the fact that the main responsibility for the final choice of the settlement formula lies with the Azerbaijanis and Armenians themselves and that Russia will support any settlement option that suits the sides to the conflict and will act as a guarantor if a compromise agreement is reached," the head of the information and press department of the Foreign Ministry said. There is nothing new in this statement, but what attracts our attention is that during the final news conference at the Foreign Ministry, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov assessed positively the work of the Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. This evaluation pleased Sergey Lavrov who said in Baku that, "if the two sides show political will, it will be possible to reach an agreement acceptable to everyone". Moscow is currently very interested in holding another meeting on settlement of the conflict between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia at the St Petersburg economic forum in June. But there is a natural question - will a breakthrough in the negotiations be possible with such a "balanced" position from Moscow? The Russian thesis about the equal responsibility of Armenia and Azerbaijan in essence plays into the hands of our opponents. It is precisely the Armenian side that has no political will or desire to move towards a peaceful settlement.

The negotiations in Baku focussed strongly upon the development of trade-economic relations. In the run-up to Lavrov's visit, the official spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry also noted the special importance of economic components in the structure of bilateral cooperation. Specifically, he pointed out that there are quite promising prospects for expanding bilateral cooperation not only in the fuel and energy complex, which is "natural" for Russia and Azerbaijan, but also in non-oil spheres such as the production of modern, competitive products, as well as in high technology and innovative activities. 

However, the problem is that there are neither real achievements nor "long-term prospects" in either the "natural" or "unnatural" sectors of bilateral relations. According to the results of the first quarter of this year, the volume of trade turnover between the two countries totalled 340m dollars (according to the State Statistics Committee of Azerbaijan), which is lower than in the same period last year. If this tendency continues (as there is no prospect of an alternative scenario) the volume of commodity turnover in 2007 will be lower than in 2006 (1.5bn dollars). Azerbaijan's refusal to buy Russian gas demonstrated the "gas dependency" of trade relations between our countries, which is now clear to all - the higher the gas price, the higher the commodity turnover. In his speech at Baku State University on 22 May, Lavrov tried to give a different explanation to this process, saying that "we have set ourselves the task of abandoning trade based on raw materials and are concentrating our efforts on increasing the effectiveness of economic cooperation, including in spheres of high technology". We have to correct Mr. Lavrov here - it was not Russia that abandoned "trade in raw materials", it was Azerbaijan that refused to import gas and significantly levelled its trade with Russia. As for the thesis on "the effectiveness of economic cooperation", it is objectively impossible with the passive attitude of the Russian government and its businessmen towards cooperation with Azerbaijan; not to mention the Russian government resolution of 1999 (which says that Azerbaijani goods should undergo full screening on the Dagestani section of the border between the two countries) which considerably restricts the export of Azerbaijani goods to Russia.

Another negative tendency in this sphere, which is closely related to the previous one, is that according to the State Statistics Committee of Azerbaijan, Russia takes 12th place in investments made in our country's economy (480,000 AZN in the first quarter of 2007, which is slightly more than 0.1 per cent of all direct investments in the Azerbaijani economy). These figures are an impartial reflection of the indifferent attitude of the Russian government and companies to investments in the Azerbaijani economy, which is happening at a time of rapid development in the two countries' economies. Against this background, it is quite typical that the intergovernmental commission on trade-economic cooperation between the two countries has not managed to hold its 11th session for more than a year. Indeed, if there is no subject for discussion and cooperation, why should they meet? In this regard, we would like to point out that Lavrov left Baku for Vienna where Russian businessmen signed in one day 32 contracts worth more that 3bn dollars with their Austrian colleagues.

Considerable attention in Baku was paid to cooperation on international and regional security. However, things are not so good here either. Baku and Moscow have different approaches to issues of regional energy cooperation, security in the South Caucasus and the Caspian, as well as the role and importance of such organizations as the CIS, GUAM and NATO. According to the Russian newspaper Kommersant, in Baku Lavrov persistently suggested that our country join the military group of operational interaction in the Caspian, Casfor. However, this idea was rightly rejected by the Azerbaijani side, which prefers to examine it in the context of discussions on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Moscow is also concerned about Washington's plans, announced in March, to deploy elements of a missile defence system in the South Caucasus. Baku did not officially support this idea, but it did not reject it either, the newspaper pointed out. We should add that the intergovernmental commission on military-technical cooperation is almost inactive, which proves once again Baku's natural distrust of its "strategic" partner. However, the same Kommersant writes that Moscow is ready to supply weapons to Azerbaijan at cheaper prices if it gives up its pro-Western orientation. But there is a question here - why should we give up our pro-Western orientation and receive weapons of doubtful quality (Russia will not sell us what it supplies to Armenia), if we can cooperate with the USA, NATO and the West and get political support, modern weapons and modern technologies?

Meanwhile, one of the few fields where many think the sides have something to boast about is in humanitarian cooperation. Lavrov pointed out in Baku that Russia plans to expand the network of branches of Russian universities in Azerbaijan, the teaching of the Azerbaijani language in the Russian Federation, as well as interaction within the framework of the newly-set up CIS council on humanitarian cooperation. However, it is exactly in the humanitarian sphere that Russia can be disrespectful and even neglectful of issues that are of special importance to Azerbaijan. Let us remember the report about the so-called "Nagornyy Karabakh republic" which was shown in the evening news bulletin "Vesti" on RTR TV on 22 April. Apart from many other falsifications, the report also questioned Naxcivan's belonging to Azerbaijan. Such "blunders" are unlikely to be accidental since the Kremlin totally controls Russian television. 

Incidentally, another problem is "brewing" in the same humanitarian sphere. We often talk with a feeling of pride about the great number of schools and universities in Azerbaijan in which the teaching is in Russian. This fact actually demonstrates the respectful attitude of the Azerbaijani people and leadership to the Russian language and culture. But it is time for Russia to take measures in this sphere since Moscow has only one (!) Azerbaijani school although its Azerbaijani population is half a million.

Thus, bilateral relations encounter a divide between the optimistic statements of the Russian foreign minister about "firm foundations" and "mature strategic partnership" on the one hand, and, on the other, a deficit of trust and respect from the Russian side towards Azerbaijan. In one of his articles, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov quoted a well-known phrase by American political expert Richard Haass that, "the USA does not need the consent of other powers to act, but it needs their support to be successful". This formula is also relevant to Russian-Azerbaijani relations today. Russia does not need Azerbaijan's consent to act in our region, but it needs Azerbaijan's support to be successful.