THREAT FROM MAGHREB

Over the past two months a host of terrorist attacks have rocked the Moroccan city of Casablanca and the capital of Algeria, where bombs went off near the prime minister's administration building and three police departments on 11 April. As early as the following day a new terrorist attack was thwarted. On 14 April explosions were heard in the central blocks of Casablanca, where diplomatic missions and a synagogue were blown up.

The Al-Qaeda in Arabic Maghreb Formation claimed responsibility for the terrorist attacks in Algeria. The organization has been active for over 10 years, although the militants have usually gone under a different name - the Salafist Group for Preaching and Jihad.

The organization was formed at the end of the1990s as a splinter group of the Armed Islamic Group, which itself had emerged in 1992, when the Islamic Salvation Front claimed victory in parliamentary elections in Algeria. The movement did not, however, accede to power because the military command in the country vehemently opposed the Islamists and this resulted in civil war. According to official statistics, the years of confrontation claimed the lives of at least 200 thousand people. The Algerian government has acquired priceless experience in fighting radicals and has created a command structure to coordinate the fight against insurgency. Victory, however, has proved elusive. For its part, the radical opposition broke up and the Armed Islamic Group emerged. In the mid-1990s this organization managed to spread its activities to European countries (especially to France) where Islamists established contacts with former compatriots. The Armed Islamic Group was responsible for a string of terrorist attacks in France in the mid-1990s, the most notorious being the seizure of an Air France airbus in Algeria in 1994. It was planned to hit the Eiffel Tower with the aircraft (a familiar scenario, is it not?) In recent years the French security services have managed to crack down on several cells of the group. 

Later, as a result of the break up of the Armed Islamic Group, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Jihad emerged and became the Islamists' flagship in Algeria. Its most significant "victory" came when it managed to derail the national reconciliation process begun with the adoption of the National Unity Charter in 2005. The organization continues to carry out contract killings, attacks on military patrols and police departments. The group also tried to infiltrate conflicts in Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan, Lebanon and Chechnya. At the same time the Algerian and foreign mass media began to report the gradual strengthening of ties between Al-Qaeda and the Salafist Group for Preaching and Jihad. Finally, on the fifth anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York, 11 September 2006, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Jihad officially announced a merger with Al-Qaeda and renamed itself Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb. Ayman al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden's right-hand man, personally reported the move. The leader of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Jihad, Musa Abdel Wadoud, regarded this as a great "honour" and hurried to assure the Al-Qaeda leadership of his loyalty. "What matters most is that we have complete trust in the faith, doctrine, method and the conduct of its members, leaders and spiritual mentors," Abdel Wadoud wrote in a message posted on a number of extremist websites. The current main objective of Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb is to turn Algeria into a theocracy. In addition to close ties with al-Qaeda, the organization also benefits from having "comrades" in other African countries (the Algerian authorities point the finger at Sudan in particular) as well as in European and Middle Eastern countries.

Thus, Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb, together with the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group, can be said to be the cornerstone of North African extremism. There are grounds for concern that the terrorists have decided upon a major move because the surge in their activity has coincided with the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Algeria, planned for 17 May. The country's Prime Minister, Abdelaziz Belkhadem, who was the target of one of the explosions on 11 April, is sure of this. Moreover, Morocco will also be deciding on the composition of its legislature in September. It should be remembered that Egypt, where Islamists seeking power have also made shows of strength, is nearby. In the latest elections in this country, the Muslim Brotherhood achieved a significant breakthrough. In the June 2007 elections to the Consultative Council (in effect the upper chamber of parliament) the movement again wants to put forward its candidates. It is worth recalling that Bin Laden's associate, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is the leader of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad formation which separated from the Muslim Brotherhood and merged with al-Qaeda in 2001. The situation in Somalia and Sudan needs no comment. It seems that the radicals' priorities include striking at the weakest links in the Maghreb countries, destabilizing the situation, and carrying out organized and purposeful action to seize power. Meanwhile, it is clear that if the radical forces of Islamic fundamentalism are capable of winning parliamentary elections, they must enjoy the support of a considerable section of the population of these countries. Why then do the incumbent governments, while cracking down on the radicals, not consider the reasons why people support the opposition? This is, as they say, the subject of another report.

More importantly, the possible toppling of the secular governments of the Arabic countries of Maghreb is by no means the only threat posed by North African radicals. The Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb regularly attacks foreigners. The militants are already responsible for abducting a group of tourists in the Sahara and blowing up an American truck not far from the Algerian capital in 2006, as well as cars carrying specialists from the Russian Stroytransgaz company in March 2007. According to al-Zawahiri, the Maghreb "colleagues" of al-Qaeda will also be assisting the organization in its operations against the West. It is known that during their operations, Algerian and Moroccan militants rely on members of the Arabic communities in France and Spain (we must mention here the notorious Madrid explosions in 2004, organized by the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group). Hence, it is quite possible that in the North African countries there may be recruitment, training and coordination bases for terrorists pursuing targets in Europe and even in the United States.

And finally the string of terrorist attacks in Maghreb is also evidence of a new regional alliance of extremists, which may be termed Mediterranean, as opposed to the Middle Eastern strand. While the international coalition is struggling to tackle the security situation in Iraq and to finally eliminate the Taliban movement in Afghanistan, another hotbed of tension may emerge in the immediate vicinity of Europe. As French expert on terrorism, Jean-Louis Bruger, believes, "the terrorist outfits in North Africa are coming together under the banner of al-Qaeda". For its part Europol notes that ideological propaganda has increased significantly and become more sophisticated of late. Local armed formations conclude that together they can achieve their goals much faster and with fewer losses. And this is a very worrying trend, once again highlighting the global nature of terrorism.