FRACTIONAL MONEY

Северный Ирак с центром в городе Киркук на протяжении всего XX столетия привлекал внимание западных политиков, стремившихся перекроить на свой лад карту Ближнего Востока. Анкаринское соглашение от 5 июня 1926 года, согласно которому Турция как правопреемница Османской империи была вынуждена передать правительству Ирака, находившемуся под мандатом Британии, территории Киркука и Мосула, стало отправной точкой "кошмаров" Северного Ирака.

Throughout the 20th century, Northern Iraq with the center of Kirkuk was in the spotlight of Western politicians who tried to redraw the map of the Middle East the way they wished. The Ankara agreement of 5 June 1926, whereby Turkey, legal successor of the Ottoman Empire, had to hand over the territories of Kirkuk and Mosul to the government of Iraq, which was under British mandate at the time, became the starting point of Northern Iraq's "nightmares".

Starting from that period and until the establishment of Saddam Hussein's regime, there were no particular crises between Turkey and Iraq, and if problems did emerge, none of them was linked to Kirkuk. Changes were triggered by Saddam Hussein's ascent to power as he pursued an active pro-Arab policy of disregard for representatives of other ethnicities, including the Turkmens who constituted the third biggest demographic group of society. All this could not affect Baghdad's relations with Ankara.

In the 1990s, Turkey began implementing a consistent policy of supporting the population of Northern Iraq, including, in addition to the Turkmens, the Kurds. Ankara thus tried to support the aspiration of the local population to restore a cultural status within the country without causing it to break up. 

After the toppling of Saddam's rule, Turkey channeled its effort into preserving the territorial integrity of Iraq and averting the establishment of "ethnic" autonomies. Ankara openly demanded that the USA prevent attempts to set up such formations, indicating that only "geographical autonomies" were acceptable. However, Washington preferred a qualitatively new strategy based on the positions of Iraq's inner players. By placing stakes on separate Iraqi groups supporting the US command, Washington tried to eliminate all obstacles in the way to uninhibited control over Iraq, including the "Turkmen factor".

Forgotten people  

Year 1991 marked a watershed in the history of Iraq. Invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent "Desert storm" sparked off an uprising of Shiites and Kurds who were supported by the USA. The answer followed immediately. In March 1991, Saddam Hussein sent elite troops to crush the rebellion, forcing hundreds of thousands of Shiites and Kurdish rebels "Peshmerga" to flee to Turkey and Iran. 

Subsequently, the north and south of Iraq turned into uncontrollable zones for Baghdad, which helped the Kurds create their own security zone in the north (announcement of the north of the 36th parallel to be a no-fly zone for Iraqi planes). Two Kurdish political forces - the Democratic Party of Kurdistan led by Masud Barzani and the Kurdish Motherland Party headed by incumbent Iraqi President Jalal Talabani - gained control over the north of the country. The West was giving the go-ahead to all anti-Saddam actions, which led to the 19 May 1992 Kurdish government election in the north of Iraq. As a result, a Kurdish parliament was established on 4 June 1992, which was said to act on behalf of Iraq's Kurdish citizens.

Shiites from Iraq's south did not receive large-scale support enjoyed by the Kurds. As a result, Saddam Hussein regained control over these territories. Under such circumstances, the place of the USA and the West was filled by Iran which provided comprehensive support to Iraqi Shiites. As far as the Turkmens are concerned, they did not receive any support at all, which dealt a serious blow to their political reputation. The influence of the Front of Iraqi Turkmens, established with support from Ankara, was not great. As a matter of fact, the Turkish administration never placed their bets on the Turkmens either and did not see them as an effective force. Ankara was hoping to resolve the issue through dialogue with Washington and Baghdad. Whereas before 1980 Ankara did raise the Turkmen topic in one way or another, the issue was deliberately "forgotten" in Saddam Hussein's rule.

To be or not to be for a referendum?

Western support strengthened Kurdish groups which established complete control over the north of the country. The Kurds think that the only downside of the situation is the lack of a constitution which they hope to adopt through a referendum in late 2007, although the vote is effectively "illegitimate". Kurdish leaders are trying to resolve in their own favor the issue of status of the town of Kirkuk, which is predominantly populated by the Turkmens. The Kurds want to turn Kirkuk into their own capital, but the country's constitution forbids them to stage elections in breakaway territories. Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution opened the way for major changes in the demographic situation in the north of the country. Under this article, "the Iraqi population census and determination of the status of disputed territories, such as Kirkuk, must be completed before 31 December 2007 through a referendum". In order to alter the demographic map of the region in the run-up to the census, the Kurds are bending over backwards to drive the Turkmens from their native lands.

The main stake of Washington with regard to Iraqi Kurds was the possibility of minimal concentration of military forces in the north of the country, which would reduce human loss and help keep the Coalition's military contingent largely in one area. However, the blind support for the Kurds and disregard for the Turkmens in the north of Iraq brought about a serious crisis. As a result, Washington has had to reconsider its policy with regard to Iraq's northern territories, which was eventually reflected in the Baker-Hamilton report on Kirkuk submitted to President Bush. The report highlights the importance of "not using Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution". "Kirkuk is a small model of Iraq, and if this town is given to an ethnic group, irreparable cataclysms may occur in the region." The USA understands perfectly well that if the situation in the north of Iraq starts getting out of hand, Turkey will intervene immediately, which will plunge the already tense region into complete chaos. 

It is not clear yet how the USA will counter its NATO ally, Turkey, if North Iraqi Kurds, who also support the Americans, stage armed resistance to Turkish troops. Peshmerga, who have so far remained neutral towards Turkish army's antiterrorist operations in Northern Iraq, are now, namely Masud Barzani, stating their "readiness to fight Ankara". The Bush administration has repeatedly given a negative assessment to the Turkish military operation in Northern Iraq, while also expressing, strangely enough, "understanding" of Ankara's desire to put an end to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). In particular, US State Department spokesman Tom Kasey openly said on 11 March that the USA "would not like to see Turkish soldiers in Iraqi soil". Today Ankara is demanding that the November referendum on the status of Kirkuk be postponed, and is seeking diplomatic avenues. It is clear, however, that Turkey will be left with no other option but to intervene.

Another negative aspect for the White House is the fact that positions of Turkey and Iran on Northern Iraq completely overlap. The USA is urging Iraq's Kurds "to unite with the Iranian Kurdistan", which runs counter to the national interests of both Ankara and Tehran. Neither Turkey nor Iran is interested in the establishment of a Kurdish state near its borders, as it will be a source of unremitting tension in areas bordering on Iraq predominantly populated by Kurds. This reaction does not play into the hands of the White House, which will lead to the weakening of support for the Kurds. The most likely scenario is the provision of Kirkuk with the status of "domestic autonomy" similar to Baghdad.

This town and the adjacent territory are also attractive due to their reserves of "black gold". Oil reserves in Northern Iran constitute 20-25 billion barrels, while reserves in the developed fields are a little more than 12 billion barrels. If we take into consideration the fact that the volume of oil supplied from Northern Iraq to world markets since 1927, when the first well was drilled near Kirkuk, constitutes only 7-8 billion, the importance of oil to the future of these territories is beyond doubt. Hence is the interest of the West to the natural wealth of the Northern Iraq.

Unprofitable truth 

The word "Turkmen" was introduced to international linguistics by the British in an effort to separate Iraqi Turks from the residents of what is currently the state of Turkey. The first 2,000 families of Turks came to the territory of Iraq in 676, during the rule of the Emevids, while large-scale settlement commenced only in the first half of the 11 century under the Seljuk rule. On 15 December 1055, Turkic army led by Khan Togrul entered Baghdad, thus annexing these territories to the empire. In the subsequent nine centuries, until 1918, Iraq was under the control of Turks, though in some years, e.g. in 1734 when Shah Nadir annexed Kirkuk to Iran, Northern Iraq temporarily moved out of Turkic influence. This, however, did not last long and in 12 years Iran had to return the territories to the Ottoman Empire.

During the break-up of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, British troops established control over the current territory of Iraq, trying to force the Ottoman leadership to demarcate a border with Iraq. The Lozano agreement did not stipulate a clear Turkish-Iraqi border either and only on 5 June 1926 did Ankara and London sign an agreement on neighborly relations and Turkey handed over control of Mosul and Kirkuk to the British. The agreement did not provide Iraqi Turks with any guarantees.

On 14 December 1927, Britain recognized Iraq as an independent state led by King Feysal. This status lasted until 14 July 1958, when Gen Abdulkerim staged a coup d'etat declaring Iraq to be a republic.

The election and subsequent leadership of brothers Abdulselim and Abdulrahman Arifs was interrupted by yet another coup on 17 July 1968. After this period Iraq was led by Saddam Hussein, first unofficially and then, starting from 16 July 1979, on legal grounds. Throughout Iraq's latest history the number of Turkmens was deliberately hushed up due to Baghdad's efforts to assimilate the "Turkic component" of the population. Results of population censuses were either kept secret or distorted. Population census was held in Iraq only three times - in 1922, 1957 and 1981.

Namely, it was stated until late 1990s that the Turkmens commanded only 2 per cent of the country's population, and this figure was included into all official country reports. 

For instance, according to the latest 1981 census, the population of Mosul was 1,227,000 people, of Kirkuk 567,000 and of Erbil 632,000. It was officially stated that less than two thirds of the three cities' population were made up of Turkmens. Iraq's total population at the time was 13,670,000 people, while 3.5 million people lived in the country's north. If we were to believe the 2-per-cent proportion of the Turkmen population to Iraq's total, it would mean that only 8 in 100 people living in the north are Turkmens. However, Turkmens are one of Iraq's dominant ethnic groups.

As early as in the period of monarchy the number of Iraq's Turkmens exceeded 500,000 people (1957). This was evidenced by results of the population census revealed in 1959. According to that information, there were 567,000 Turkmens in the country. It was officially acknowledged that 95 per cent of Kirkuk's population was made up of Turkmens. However, this statistics was soon shrouded in secrecy. 

In the late 1960s, in an effort to redraw the demographic map of the country's north, thousands of Arab families were moved from Iraq's central provinces to the north, including Kirkuk. Under Saddam Hussein this tendency further deepened, but after the regime was overthrown the situation has slightly changed. This time the ousted Arabs were replaced by Kurdish families. At the same time, if we take into account the natural population increase of 3.5 per cent a year, we can conclude that the number of Turkmens should have exceeded 2.5 million people by 1997. 

Prior to the US invasion their number reached 60 per cent, but after April 2003, with the connivance of the USA, 230,000 Kurds were settled in Iraq's north. As a result, the proportion of Turkmens has dropped to 40 per cent today. However, even Western sources acknowledge that the number of Turkmens in the north of Iraq - in Erbil, Kirkuk and Mosul provinces - exceeds 3 million people. The election of Kurdish Jalal Talabani as Iraqi president has also had an adverse impact on the Turkmens. Thus, in early 2007, Baghdad made the decision to pay $15,000 to all Arab families who had moved from the north to other parts of the country. Today, according to different estimates, the number of Kurds in Northern Iraq is 1.5 times higher than that of Turkmens and ranges between 4.5 and 6 million people.