THINK ABOUT PEACE, BUT PREPARE FOR WAR

The summit of the League of Arab States (LAS) in Riyadh, the visit to the Middle East by three top woman politicians, as well as the latest events in the region have drawn the attention of the international community to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict again. Modest hope was expressed for its settlement in the next few years. Nevertheless, pessimistic forecasts prevail. Experts fear that despite the parties' readiness for dialogue, acceptable conditions for peace will not be agreed upon. There are too many disagreements on the key moments of the new "recipe for salvation".

Controversial proposal

We are talking about the so-called Saudi plan that was drawn up in 2002 and adopted shortly before the recent high-level meeting of LAS member countries in the Saudi capital. Five years ago, Washington rejected the initiative of Arab countries. At that time, all attention was focused on the "roadmap" that provided for a stage-by-stage solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict and was promoted by the international Quartet which includes the USA, EU, UN and Russia. Unfortunately, we can say now that the "roadmap" efforts in fact failed. Initially, one of the main conditions of the plan - the suppression of all types of terror from the Palestinian Authority - was not really observed. After Hamas came to power in the PNA (Palestinian National Authority) - it seems that its leaders do not even want to think of giving up the use of extremist methods of struggle for their interests - hope for a peaceful future suffered a setback again. In such a deadlocked situation, the Saudi plan "surfaced". Will it be more successful than its predecessor? Often what seems perfectly agreed on paper turns out to be a painful process with a great number of obstacles in reality.

The document agreed upon at the LAS session provides for the recognition of Israel by Arab states in exchange for Israel's return to the borders of 1967 (before the Six-Day War when the Israeli army seized Syria's Golan Heights, the West Bank and Gaza Strip). Also, Tel-Aviv should "fairly solve" the problem of Palestinian refugees and their descendants and recognize the independent Palestinian state with its capital in Eastern Jerusalem. If all conditions are observed, the conflict will end and the LAS countries will establish normal relations with Israel. At present, among the Arab states only Egypt and Jordan maintain diplomatic relations with Tel-Aviv.

The first reaction of the Israeli government to the Saudi plan was sharply negative. However, later Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert saw a real chance for peace in the new plan, "which is a lot more beneficial than what was proposed in the past". Olmert also said that Israel is ready to make "serious and painful" concessions. "I am saying to all Arab heads of state that if the Saudi king calls a meeting of moderate Arab states, invites me and the leaders of the Palestinian Authority and presents us with the proposals of Saudi Arabia. We will come and listen to them and will be happy to share our considerations. It seems to me that it is time to make an incredible effort to move the diplomatic process forward… I am looking to the future with optimism," Olmert stressed. He added that he had "all grounds to suppose that it will be possible to achieve peace with Arab countries of the region, including Syria in the next five years". At the same time, the prime minister said in an interview with Haaretz newspaper: "There is a bloc of countries which understand that they were probably wrong when they regarded Israel as the main problem of the world. This is a revolutionary change in the world outlook." The last international conference on the Palestinian-Israeli settlement was held in Madrid in 1991. It resulted in a series of temporary peace agreements between Israel and the Palestinian leadership.

Thus, in essence Ehud Olmert said that he is ready to start peace talks with the leaders of Arab countries. It is important for the proposal of the Israeli prime minister to be clearly supported by the Washington administration. "The idea that Israelis and Arab countries can meet in some format, express ideas at least in order to start discussions on the current situation and express ideas and proposals to move the peace process forward is positive," a spokesman for the US Department of State, Sean McCormack, stressed. The top commissioner of the European Union (EU) for foreign policy and security, Javier Solana, also expressed his hope for "a common peace". He thinks that "for the first time in many years the League of Arab States made a commitment to play a more positive role in the peace process".

The issue of refugees

Nonetheless, many politicians and experts in various countries, including in Israel itself, took Olmert's statements with open scepticism. Tel-Aviv is still not ready to engage in a dialogue with the Palestinian government. But if this problem can be solved in some way, the issue of Palestinian refugees seems to be an impassable swamp. "I will not agree to recognize Israel's responsibility for the refugees in any form, and that's it," Ehud Olmert made his position more than clear in an interview with The Jerusalem Post. According to UN estimations, there are about four million Palestinian refugees and their descendants in the Middle East (according to other sources, their number is much higher). 

It must be remembered that they appeared as a result of the 1948 war between Israel and Arab countries after the Arab countries refused to recognize the partition of Palestine according to the UN plan. Most of the refugees are now living in Jordan and Syria and about 400,000 in Lebanon. According to many specialists in international relations, the return of these people to Israel would endanger the very existence of the Jewish state. The thing is that at the present time, more than 1.5 million Arabs are already living in Israel (while the overall population is 7.1 million). You can easily calculate that if the Arab refugees move to Israel, the Jews will risk becoming a minority, especially as the Arab population is increasing much more quickly than the Jewish one. In 1949, there were only 156,000 Arabs in Israel, i.e. in 60 years, their number increased by 10 times. There is no point in hoping that this problem will be settled by means of financial compensation. According to a poll conducted in 2003, only 10 per cent of all refugees would accept this option. The others clearly prefer returning to the land they once left to financial indemnities.

Women's "landing operation"

These issues are only being prepared for discussion and it is quite likely that under pressure from Western countries, the terms of the Saudi plan for Israel will be softened. Brussels and Washington understand very well that without settling the lengthy Palestinian-Israeli conflict, it is impossible to achieve positive changes in the Middle East. This was the aim of the efforts of the "women's landing operation" carried out in the region by the centres of power on both sides of the Atlantic. At the end of March and beginning of April, the Middle East was visited by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. It is quite interesting that all three politicians represent three different approaches to the establishment of peace in the most colourful and conflict region of the world. Condoleezza Rice is the main supporter of the foreign policy of the current White House administration. If nothing extraordinary happens, this policy will be implemented until President George Bush's term in the Oval Office runs out. Nancy Pelosi, who has been the third person in the US state hierarchy of late, on the contrary, has let it be known what Washington's foreign policy will be like after 2008. Although this is clear from the fact that despite the objections from the White House, she decided to visit Syria, a country that Bush attributed to the so-called "axis of evil", during her tour of the Middle East. And finally, Angela Merkel allows the international community to hear the voice of united Europe - Germany holds the presidency of the European Union at the moment.

Condoleezza Rice was the first to visit the region. On the eve of her visit, she said that peace in the Middle East and the establishment of the Palestinian state are the main priorities of the current US administration. This is clear because Washington needs reliable backing to solve the Iraq problem and come to grips with the issue of Iran. Rice might pay another visit to the region at the beginning of the next month. Following the state secretary, Angela Merkel and Nancy Pelosi visited the Middle East almost at the same time. The Palestinians look at the German chancellor with special hopes because it is important for them to achieve at least a partial breakthrough in diplomatic isolation and the cancellation of the financial sanctions imposed on the Authority after Hamas came to power. When there are no money injections, the life of the ordinary population in the PNA is getting more and more difficult. An especially outrageous incident happened there in March when sewage swept like a tsunami through the settlement of Umm Naser with a population of 3,000 people in northern Gaza after the collapse of a dam built around a refuse reservoir. Old people and children were among those who drowned in sewage. Official representatives of the Authority said that several projects on the reconstruction of the sewerage system in Gaza were frozen after Hamas won the elections in January last year and the PNA stopped getting international aid. Unfortunately, the worn-out sewerage system is not the only problem there - almost the entire infrastructure of the Authority is in a deplorable state. Local residents experience serious problems with power and water supplies almost all the time, although most of the PNA population are children. In order to establish a peaceful life, the Palestinians need to observe a number of conditions. For this reason, Merkel said after her meeting with Mahmud Abbas that the future dialogue is possible only with those Palestinian politicians who give up violence and recognize Israel. It is worth pointing out that the head of the German government described the Saudi plan as "the cornerstone on the way of building the peace process between the Palestinians and Israelis".

In turn, Pelosi directed her efforts at establishing a dialogue between Israel and Syria which, despite its "pariah" status, has a serious influence on many events happening in the region, including on the Arab-Israeli confrontation.

However, it is not clear whether the envoys of the West will be able to do anything with the total distrust of the conflicting sides in each other. LAS Secretary-General Amr Musa said that he does not regard Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's call for negotiations as serious. "Several messages (of Israel) have been heard recently, however we will not be able to regard any of them as serious or as something that reflects changes in Israel's position," Amr Musa said at a news conference in Cairo. In turn, speaking about its readiness for dialogue, Israel also fears that Hamas militants will become more active as they have lately recruited another 10,000 people. The Israeli special services believe that as a sample in military training, Hamas relies on the experience of the Lebanese movement Hezbollah. For this reason, the Tzahal military might start a new large-scale operating in Gaza soon.