BETWEEN TERROR AND PARLIAMENTARIANISM

Elections were held to the Northern Ireland Assembly in early March for the first time since 2003. The elections to the main and only legislative and executive body in this rebellious province of the United Kingdom were initially planned for spring 2003. However, on 1 May 2003 the British government decided to postpone the elections to this Ulster government body until the autumn. (The name Ulster is often used to mean Northern Ireland, as the latter covers a large part of the territory of the historic Irish province of Ulster.) The reason given was the lack of progress in the negotiations that had dragged on for many weeks with the main political forces in Northern Ireland on resolving the political situation in the region, primarily the complete disarmament of the Irish Republican Party (whose armed wing is the IRA).

Historic decision

Agreement was reached on holding the elections on 26 November, after a series of negotiations and bilateral and multilateral meetings at the highest level in London, Dublin (the capital of the Republic of Ireland) and Belfast (the capital of Northern Ireland) which involved the head of the British government, Tony Blair, Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, Ulster Unionist Party leader David Trimble, the US president's special envoy for Northern Ireland and other international mediators. The news of the date for the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly was unexpectedly clouded by the Ulster Unionists' refusal to support the initiative. Despite guarantees from the Republicans, the Unionists demanded more transparency and responsibility in the disarmament of the IRA.

The IRA fighters promised the British government to surrender their arms and move to negotiations only in November 2004. The government set its condition: representatives of the Catholic and Protestant churches were to observe the process of decommissioning the arsenal which the organization had acquired in over 80 years of terrorist activity. The question of weapons surrender remained open until December 2004, but the group did not conduct military operations because of the continuing cease-fire. Northern Ireland received the right to elect its own parliament and form bodies of executive power. Defence, foreign policy and finance remained in London's hands. They stopped blowing up bombs and killing people, despite the IRA's determined refusal to disarm.

Trying to breathe new life into the political process, the British government published an emergency law in spring 2006, after consultations with Dublin, which would allow the Northern Ireland Assembly to be convened again in May. The law also included the latest date by which the province should have formed its executive government, 24 November 2006. However, these dates were not met and the new elections were set for 7 March.

In January 2007 the Catholic party Sinn Fein, at the urging of its leader Gerry Adams, took a number of political steps which could ease the political tension and open the way to a peaceful settlement of the conflict in the region, where an armed movement to separate from Great Britain has already been under way for 30 years. It recognised the legitimacy of the courts and the reformed Northern Ireland police, after which there was hope that in March residents of Northern Ireland would be able to elect their autonomous parliament. The recognition of the police force was a key condition for London to create an autonomous administration in Northern Ireland. The Republicans had not recognised the legitimacy of the courts and police in Northern Ireland for practically 86 years. Catholics accused the police of excessive favouritism towards Protestants. Now the police force in Northern Ireland, formed in place of the disbanded police from the times of the armed conflict between Catholics and Protestants, stresses that it is trying to act impartially in the interests of both religious communities.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair described the decision as historic. "For long years we have been accustomed to violence and terrorism and now there is a chance of a peaceful resolution," Blair's colleague, Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, said. More than 3,600 people died during the years of the armed conflict involving Catholics and Protestants in the region. The IRA claimed responsibility for at least half the fatal incidents. The wave of violence has subsided over the past 10 years, but the sides have had enormous difficulty in reaching political compromise. However, in recent years the IRA declared an end to "military operations" and decommissioned their military arsenal, which independent observers were able to confirm.

On 7 March 2007 the first elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly since 2003 were held. Two hundred and fifty candidates representing Ulster's leading parties contested 108 seats. According to the final results announced on 8-9 March, the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) won the most seats in the assembly, 36 out of 108, gaining six more seats than in the last elections in 2002.  

The pro-Irish Catholic Party Sinn Fein also gained another four seats. Now it has 28 seats in the Ulster parliament, as opposed to 24 in 2002. The pro-British Ulster Unionist Party came third with 18 seats, losing nine seats compared to 2002.

The moderate Catholic Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), which supports the union of Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic through the consent of the people, also lost seats. It gained 16 rather than its previous 18 seats. The Alliance Party increased its representation by one seat to seven. Three minor parties shared the remaining three seats.

The results of the elections again set a practical division in the Ulster legislative assembly between two conflicting political forces. And now the division is not between the moderate Catholic and Protestant political forces, as it was before, but between their radical representatives.

Now the 10 administrative posts in Ulster's future coalition administration, if it is formed, will be held by four ministers, including the prime minister, from the DUP, three from Sinn Fein, two from the UUP and one from the SDLP.

The problem is that the DUP's leader, 80-year-old Ian Paisley, who has built a 40-year political career on a boycott of any attempts at reconciliation with the Catholics and their leading representatives, is as before refusing to enter any negotiations with representatives of Sinn Fein.

A further complication arises from the attempts of the leaders of neighbouring Ireland to use the Northern Ireland conflict for political purposes. Specifically, Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern who is involved with the British prime minister in the process of inter-communal reconciliation in Ulster, said in mid-March in an interview with the London-based Guardian that he is "deeply committed to a united Ireland", at the same time stressing that, "The most important thing is that we have peace and hopefully reconciliation between everyone on this island. We need to have a unity and a friendship among the people and that must be our first priority." Experts link this statement with the Irish head of government's attempts to secure the votes of the substantial number of Sinn Fein supporters in Ireland in the spring general election. The Northern Ireland elections are seen in London and Dublin as the first significant stage on the road to resolving the long political crisis in Ulster and forming a power-sharing government there.

Knowing full well Paisley's antipathy towards Sinn Fein, the British government is trying to put pressure on him to force him into dialogue with his "opponents". But does London have enough carrots and sticks? London and Dublin have already declared that both parties must reach agreement between themselves no later than 26 March on cooperation and power-sharing. Otherwise, it was said that the re-elected assembly would be closed on the following day with all the consequences this entails, while Ulster would continue to be governed from London, but this time with the greater participation of Dublin, which would hardly suit the DUP. "If, however, the parties are unwilling or unable to do their jobs on 26 March then we'll carry on, it's not a problem for us," said the British secretary of state for Wales and Northern Ireland, Peter Hain, who held personal talks with Paisley and Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams. "We can carry on governing (Ulster) and cooperating with the Republic of Ireland government, we can carry on doing that but it would be a tremendous tragedy for the politics and the people of Northern Ireland."

London is ready to offer more than a billion dollars in additional funds as a "carrot" to the future Ulster administration, but only if the DUP and Sinn Fein reach agreement. "The financial package is dependent on devolution. It ain't happening if devolution isn't achieved. It will be taken off the table," Hain said.