ABKHAZ "ELECTION": WHO WON?

A parliamentary election was held in the unrecognized "Republic of Abkhazia" on Sunday 4 March. No one managed to win all 35 seats and a second round needs to be held. However, Sukhumi rushed out numerous statements saying that the election once again confirmed the "independence" of Abkhazia. 

As many experts believe, elections for the majority of separatist regimes are not so much a means of establishing rule in society, but constitute an effort to prove themselves to be "properly instituted" and a "proper" state. Scenarios are usually very similar - they invite numerous "independent international observers", who usually represent only themselves, although the geography of their countries can be quite unexpected. Even representatives of Western Sahara turned up in Abkhazia and rushed to recognize the local "election" and describe it as in compliance with all necessary standards. However, there were no representatives from Kosovo. This naturally makes one think that they gave their priority to a "team game" rather than to international law. 

"Election" after ethnic cleansing 

In the meantime, Georgia takes a different view. During his visit to the military base in Gori, President Mikheil Saakashvili, commenting on the Abkhaz election farce, made quite a harsh statement: "Another unlawful act being held in Abkhazia will never be recognized by anyone, as up to 400,000-500,000 people were evicted from Abkhazia with the help of foreign elements. Now there are only 100,000 people living there."

He believes that "the separatists and their supporters hoped that they would expel hundreds of thousands of people from Abkhazia and that none of the refugees would want to return to their homes," "However, there is a new generation of people in Georgia, who will never put up with illegality and injustice. In fact we do not want revenge, but we want reconciliation and cooperation for the future," Saakashvili said, explaining that the reconciliation process will taking place on the basis of a "strong state".

Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli said that the Georgian authorities "have offered to start negotiations with Abkhazia without any preconditions, to achieve a political solution to the conflict." As for the election, it is "not only an unlawful act but also an immoral one, since 80 per cent of the local population was evicted from Abkhazia in 1992-93 during the armed conflict. 

The Georgian Foreign Ministry also issued a statement concerning the Abkhaz election.

"On 4 March, the Abkhaz separatist leadership held another unlawful act - the so-called parliamentary election, which was held throughout Abkhazia, including Gali. There is pressure on the population from Abkhaz military and security bodies," the document said. As Tbilisi said, "the election was held in the region after the ethnic cleansing by the separatists in 1992-93, when the majority of local residents - people of various ethnic groups - were expelled. 

It is not only the authorities on the Inguri River, separating Abkhazia from the other part of Georgia, that protested, but also Georgian youth who staged a protest during which the Abkhaz separatists provoked shooting on the bridge. Moreover, an "aide to the Abkhaz president" in Gali, Kishmariya dared to say: "I warned the heads of Georgia's Zugdidi District that if a movement began on the Inguri bridge, there would be shooting to the air to stop them. But if the movement continued, then fire would be opened on them."

It is clear that events on the Inguri River proved that the Abkhaz separatists created serious tension with the farce of an election. This actually could have been predicted. 

There is something else that could have been predicted. The election in Abkhazia had been planned as evidence of "proper statehood"; however, it is evident that Georgia that came out on top because the reaction of the international community was both clear and impressive. 

"The US administration does not recognize the Abkhaz parliamentary election," Sean McCormak, US State Department Spokesman said.

McCormack said that the USA supports the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia and is in favour of a peaceful solution to the conflict. Thus, as he said, the election is interference in the international efforts to achieve a just and long-lasting solution to the conflict". The majority of the more than 200,000 refugees still can not return to their homes and those who have returned have become the victims of various violations of human rights." "We demand that the authorities observe the rights of those who returned and take steps to enable the other displaced people to return," Sean McCormack said.

Prior to this, statements by NATO and EU members had been no less stern. A communiqu? issued in Berlin by Germany, the EU presidency, said that "an election in Georgia's region can be held after all refugees and displaced migrants are granted the right to return to their homes,"

For his part, NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that the Alliance does not recognize the election in Abkhazia either and continues to support Georgia's territorial integrity. "I have already expressed my opinion on the so-called referendum in Abkhazia and I am saying this again. NATO supports Georgia's territorial integrity and does not recognize the results of this election," he said. However, from the Russians'point of view, the results of the Abkhaz election were clear. 

"Black Sea illusion" 

Even the most na?ve people would not doubt that Moscow was no mere bystander in the Sukhumi crisis. There is too much evidence of Russia's overt and covert support for Abkhaz separatists. When Russia banned the transport of oranges from Georgia, the Russian authorities allowed Abkhazia to bring in their oranges. There is a rail link between Sochi and Sukhumi and Abkhaz residents have Russian passports.  Moreover, Russia's support is the only means of survival for Abkhaz separatists. 

Of course, Russia also has an interest. On the one hand, Abkhazia, just like North Ossetia, is a lever of pressure on the disobedient Georgia, whose authorities do not want to follow Russia. On the other hand, facing unfavourable changes in the situation in the Black Sea, where Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey are preparing to enter NATO, as are Georgia and Ukraine, Russia is ready for any adventure to expand its zone of influence in the Black Sea region and to get useful footholds. Abkhazia with its Sukhumi port looks very attractive and Moscow is supporting the local separatists' efforts to "reunite with Russia" at any cost. And they ignore Georgia's warnings that Abkhazia may find itself becoming a region of the Krasnodar Territory. 

Today it is impossible to pursue a policy with the means that were used in the first half of the 1990s. In reality, Moscow's pressure on Tbilisi is a focus of international attention and the reaction to the Abkhaz election has confirmed this. At a session of the OSCE permanent council in Vienna, delegations from Georgia, Moldova and the USA issued a proposal to Russia to stop providing financial assistance to the separatist regimes and to join projects for the economic development of the regions under the supervision of the international community."

Moldova's Ministry for Foreign Affairs and European Integration reported that GUAM and the USA expressed their concern about Russia's activities in the Dniester Region, North Ossetia and Abkhazia. "The official reception of the leaders of the unrecognized states in Moscow and the holding of negotiations with their leaders are contrary to Russia's role as a mediator, in which it should remain neutral to the conflicts."

In other words, the separatist regimes that Moscow is carefully supporting and sponsoring are reminiscent of a suitcase without a handle that is hard to carry but a pity to leave. 

"Basayev's shadow"

Analyzing and commenting on the results of the "election" in the separatist bodies, the majority of analysts try to answer one question as to how the distribution of power has changed in the main line of the confrontation, that is, between Sukhumi and Tbilisi. The distribution of power in "parliament" itself is not usually the focus of attention. However, Abkhazia has its own peculiarities.

 Many experts say that the current "election" could be a means of revenge by the "family clan" of Raul Khadzhimba, who lost the recent "presidential" election, against Moscow's plan. As a result of his conflict with the current "president", Sergey Bagapsh, Khadzhimba, back in 2004, appealed to the notorious Confederation of the Caucasus Peoples for assistance. This Confederation gave quite effective military support to Abkhazia in 1993 and through its channels Moscow rendered military support to Abkhazia. It should also be noted that many Chechen "field commanders", including Shamil Basayev, gained their military experience in the Abkhaz war. Moscow, however, turned a blind eye to the campaign of army building in Chechnya, thinking that this army would be fighting against Georgia for an "independent" Abkhazia.

The first Abkhaz war was "plotted" by Chechnya. The consequences of a fresh war could be more dramatic. Moreover, Abkhazia is an access point to the sea for the Russian North Caucasus autonomies, which it will be difficult for Moscow to keep under control. In the meantime, it is clear that efforts to play "The Abkhaz card" against Georgia are becoming very dangerous for Moscow.