IRAN LOSES "LAST BASTION"

The crisis of the Iranian nuclear programme is taking momentum. The IAEA director-general recently made yet another report to the UN Security Council, which said: Tehran continues to ignore the calls of the international community and does not intend to impose a moratorium on uranium enrichment. The group of six (five standing members of the UN Security Council and Germany) has already launch negotiations in London, which are expected to prepare a draft resolution on new and wider sanctions against Iran.

"Stick" in action

Unlike protracted and vague debates that preceded the December resolution of the Security Council on fairly "soft" measures of influence on the Islamic Republic of Iran, the current negotiations of the six in London, judging by official reports, are moving ahead rather fast. There is already a preliminary draft resolution, and although 

the USA and its European allies are again insisting on tough measures, while Russia and China are trying to soften them, one should hardly doubt that the list of sanctions imposed on Iran will be extended soon. In accordance with "leaks" from diplomatic sources quoted by The Financial Times, the oldest Iranian state bank Sepah may become the target. In its effort to isolate financially this Islamic republic, the US Department of Finance banned US banks from serving operations of the Sepah bank and its branches back on 9 January and accused the Islamic bank of funding a ballistic missile development programme. This decision halted the bank's dollar operations.

For its part, a Sepah subsidiary, the Bank Sepah International, has contacts "with over 45 countries of the world", including enterprises in London, Paris, Frankfurt and Rome. In view of this, agreement among European countries could have been more effective in the financial blockade of Iran. Europe has abstained from boycotting Sepah up until now. However, the Financial Times notes that European diplomats have already acknowledged that they are considering the possibility of including sanctions against the bank in the new version of the UN document.

In the meantime, while the draft of the new resolution is under discussion, many international organizations are imposing their own sanctions on Iran. The EU Council of Ministers is reported to have finally approved "restriction measures" against Iran, which include ban on delivering to this country technologies and materials that can be used in the development of a nuclear weapon and missiles. Moreover, a decision has been adopted to bar some Iranian nationals from member countries of this regional organization. The foreign accounts of individuals and organizations named by the Security Council and the UN sanctions committee will be "frozen". Among them are individuals and organizations that are directly connected with or supporting Iran's nuclear programme or the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems. In addition, Iranian nationals cannot be educated in the EU in the fields that can promote nuclear weapons developments. Finally, the IAEA itself is imposing sanctions on Iran against the backdrop of the escalating Iranian nuclear crisis and Tehran's reluctance to take heed of the international community. IAEA delegates from 35 countries at the initiative of Mohammad al-Baradi'i unanimously decided to suspend technical assistance to Iran. In particular, at issue is 22 out of 55 projects approved in November 2006. This step was backed even by those countries that usually insist on the inadmissibility of tough measures against Iran, AP reported.

However, Iran's response is the same as ever - the country will not give up its goal. Iran's representative in the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltaniyeh said: "The reputation of this international organization has been damaged for the first time in history. The IAEA's professionalism and impartiality should not be affected under the influence of the political motivation of the UN Security Council that is trying to dictate its own terms to the agency." The diplomat recalled that nothing could make Tehran to deviate from its path that aims at creating its own nuclear industry independent of other countries.

At first sight, neither side has changed its rhetoric: the world capitals are urging Iran to introduce a moratorium on uranium enrichment, and Iran is continuing to ignore the message, while at the same time making it clear that it is ready for any developments. Practically all participants in the process acknowledge that the crisis should be resolved peacefully.

"Ice begins to break"?

Nevertheless, considerable progress can be seen in the Iran issue even with a naked eye. Apparently, Russia may significantly cut on its contacts with Iran and support in the international arena. Moscow and Beijing will certainly remain consistent defenders of Tehran at negotiations; however future changes in Moscow's position may lead to virtually anything. The Israeli deputy prime minister and minister of strategic affairs, Avigdor Liberman, said on his return from Russia that Moscow was not averse to toughening UN Security Council sanctions on Iran. "Russia and Israel are on the same side of the fence. I think Russia will back tough sanctions on Iran," Liberman said in an interview with Kommersant newspaper, adding that "Russia was to have already started delivering nuclear fuel to Iran's nuclear power plant in Bushehr, but this never happened".

Experts believe that the news conference of the head of the Federation Council committee for international affairs, Mikhail Margelov, who recently visited Washington and Tehran, gave enough food for thought. The senator does not rule out that the USA may launch a targeted military strike on Iran. He noted that "military intervention of Iran will automatically mean the end of incumbent US President George Bush". However, the head of the Federation Council committee for international affairs said that Iran's nuclear programme might become a military one in the future. Margelov said that he had not received a clear-cut answer to direct questions on the nature of Iran's nuclear programme. "The answers were colourful, flowery and Omar Khayyam style. I had an impression that by avoiding answers, the Iranians tried to reserve a right and made it clear that they did not rule out any version of development of their nuclear programme. It smells of powder in the air, one can feel tension among Iran's political elite, which showed itself in almost all conversations," Margelov said, noting quite clearly  at the same time the "red line" beyond which Russia's position on Iran could undergo serious changes. "For us this 'red line' is quite obvious - there are rules of the game set by the IAEA, and there are deadlines set by the UN Security Council." The senator was fairly sceptical about the effect of international sanctions against Iran: "The experience of Yugoslavia and Iraq shows that any international sanctions are easily evaded."

Finally, the construction of a nuclear power plant in the Iranian town of Bushehr is under threat. The Atomstroyeksport (Nuclear construction and export) company and an Iranian delegation held talks in Iran. The major problem, according to the official Russian version, is that fact that Iran has not yet resumed payment for the construction of the nuclear plant. The company's deputy president for financial issues, Yevgeniya Neymerovets, said that "since 17 January the  Atomstroyeksport company, a Russian national agency and major contractor in the construction of the Bushehr nuclear plant, has received no payment for the construction of the power unit". On the other hand, another participant in the talks from the Russian side, the chief of Atomstroyeksport's Bushehr operations, Vladimir Pavlov, said that "despite major problems with financing, the company is continuing work on the site".

In the meantime, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, said that Russia insists on the financing of the Bushehr nuclear plant before the date set in the agreement. "There are no problems with financing. Russia suggested that we pay ahead of the dates fixed in the agreement," he said. "Talks are under way in this regard with Russia (in Moscow)."

But as soon as IAEA sanctions emerged, Iran's representatives immediately "changed tack". Iran is ready to provide additional funds to complete the construction of the Bushehr nuclear plant in accordance with the schedule, the deputy president of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Mohammad Saidi, who led the Iranian delegation in the talks with the Atomstroyeksport management, was prompt to state. He said that Russia "had minor financial problems" and that Iran was now ready to take steps to resolve them. "We hope that Atomstroyeksport and Rosatom will fulfill their obligations, deliver nuclear fuel by the end of March and ensure the launch of the reactor by September, as stipulated in the contract," Saidi said. What is important for Iran is to preserve - both literally and figuratively - the Russian presence at its nuclear facilities.

Now it is Russia's turn to think of the amount of risk, including political risk, of cooperation with Iran. Back in December 2006 Moscow did not veto the UN Security Council resolution on sanctions on Iran. "They (Iranians - editor) hoped to the end that Russia would block the decision or veto it," Radzhab Safarov, director of the Russian-Iranian business council in Moscow, told the Wall Street Journal. "They were horrified."

Italian La Reppublica quotes an interesting statement by the special representative of the US Department of State, Sean McCormack. He believes that the sanctions imposed in December "prompted wide discussions in Iran on the validity of the current policy confronting the international system". Although many experts believe that the current sanctions are too mild to make the "mullahcrats" to retreat, the process of "internal wavering" has obviously started in Iran. In any case, the escape of the former Iranian deputy defence minister, Ali Reza Asgari, to the west clearly signals that against the backdrop of growing tension, many Iranians are simply trying to flee wherever bombs will not be falling on their heads.